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Showing posts with label Kishore Mahbubani. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kishore Mahbubani. Show all posts

Thursday, May 4, 2023

The new Cold War heats up


 Insightful views: Kishore giving his assessment on the US-China rivalry during his lecture in Kuala Lumpur. -

The new Cold War heats up

International relations expert Kishore Mahbubani has interesting views on US-China rivalry and the role Asean could play.

IT’S not every day that one gets to hear directly from Prof Kishore Mahbubani, one of the best thinkers on international relations.

In fact, it had taken the organiser, the Malaysian Institute of Management, over two years to invite the Singaporean diplomat, academician and best-selling author to Kuala Lumpur.

Those of us who turned up for his lecture on Tuesday evening wanted to hear his assessment of the United States-China rivalry, which is certain to get worse in the coming years.

Kishore is a Distinguished Fellow at the Asian Research Institute, National University of Singapore, and has had two notable careers – 33 years in diplomacy and 15 years in academia.

He was the founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and spent over 10 years as Singapore’s ambassador to the United Nations.

He has authored several books, including best-sellers such as Can Asians Think? and Has The West Lost It?.His insightful views on the US-China geopolitical rivalry have grabbed the attention of many.

Gloomy as it may be, it is certain and unavoidable – in Kishore’s own words – that the rivalry will worsen as the Chinese push to challenge the United States for dominance.

For us living in the Asean region, especially Malaysians, it is more troubling as the power play is taking place in our backyard, the South China Sea, while Taiwan is merely about four hours away by flight.

Kishore predicts the contest, if not already a feud, will accelerate in the next 10 years and he doesn’t see it quietening down.

The scenario is unprecedented as for the first time in human history, these two superpowers are colliding.

Driven by what he describes as structural forces, he sees China as the “No. 2 that is about to take over as No. 1 and the US will push down China” at all costs as the latter does not see itself losing its pole position.

“They should learn from the Malaysian monarchy (where the reigning King) steps down every five years,’’ he joked.

He said in his highly provocative titled book Has China Won? that it hasn’t helped that the many US policymakers who will drive this geopolitical contest are “possessed by a psychology that sees all competition among great powers as a zero-sum game”.

“Hence, if China steps up its naval deployments in the South China Sea, the US Navy will see it as a loss and step up its presence in the region,” he said.

There is much insecurity on the part of the United States as “it is far from certain that America will win the contest as China has as good a chance as America of emerging as the dominant influence in the world”.

“In fact, many thoughtful leaders and observers in strategically sensitive countries around the world have begun making preparations for a world where China may become number one,” said Kishore.

He said it was an error of perception for America to view the CCP as a Chinese Communist Party embedded in communist roots, when in the eyes of Asian observers, the CCP actually functions as the “Chinese Civilisation Party” with its soul rooted in Chinese civilisation.

But Kishore has some advice for China – never underestimate the United States.

It’s a giant that has woken up and it has won the narrative, with the support of a powerful international media, that it is a contest between a democracy and an authoritarian government.

“It has been a strategic mistake for American thinkers to take success for granted, it would be an equally colossal strategic mistake for China to assume the same,” he said.

Painting the Chinese as demonic has been an easy selling point to the American public, most of whom have never travelled out of their country, added Kishore, saying in his book that it will be easier “for Americans to persist in the belief that they would eventually triumph against China, no matter the odds”.

Both the Republicans and Democrats have adopted the same tone and strategy of containing China.

So, it doesn’t matter who the next US President is although it got worse under President Donald Trump. It has simply become a bipartisan policy.

The rest of the world, especially Asean, will be affected by this great power play. No one will be spared as pressure will be applied to countries to take sides.

Even a simple acquisition of technology, such as using Huawei’s applications, has turned complicated.

Kishore shared an anecdote of how a British top official had told him that it would use Huawei as security clearance, and with a stiff upper lip, said there was no reason for it to submit to US pressure.

But just months later, the United Kingdom “crumbled” to US pressure and abandoned Huawei.

He feared that Taiwan would be a more sensitive issue than the South China Sea as it benefits the United States and China to keep the international waterways safe for freedom of navigation.

But Taiwan is a more potential flash point. It is the red line that no one should cross, and most Asians know it and “they shut up”, he said, advising Asian countries to continue with this approach.

The Chinese see Taiwan as a renegade province that belongs to China and do not tolerate any moves to push for independence. Most countries adopt a One China policy and have no diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Kishore said for a long time, the United States stayed away from the Taiwan issue, but now it has been broached and “it is not rational, it’s dangerous and emotional”.

But he said Asean could play an influential role to speak up for moderate measures to initiate dialogues between the United States and China and to help reduce tensions that could contribute to possibilities of a war.

He acknowledged that Asean may be “weak and chaotic”, but paradoxically, no one sees the grouping as a threat and its meetings were all attended by the powerful nations.

“Everyone loves Asean. It has convening abilities,” he said, adding that both China and the United States had invested huge amounts there compared to other regions of the world.

China has been the largest market for Asean exports for the past 12 years and Malaysia’s number one trading partner for the past 15 consecutive years, while Asean countries collectively are the United States’ fourth largest trading partner.

Together, they represent a market with a gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$3 trillion (RM13.38 trillion). US goods and services traded with Asean totalled an estimated US$362.2bil (RM1.62 trillion) in 2020.

Kishore said while the US-China contest may be a gloomy topic, there is also a positive aspect as both sides will woo support and attention, adding that it was good to be courted but reaffirmed that Asean members must stay out of the feud.

“It is said that when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled, but let’s not forget that when elephants make love, it tramples too,’’ he said in jest.

Talk is better than war and for a start, the rhetoric can be lowered down. A deeper rationality is needed and surely, there is a need to accept that the world has changed.

A painful and unnecessary clash needs to be avoided. The journey for both sides to work together has to start soon.


Wong Chun Wai began his career as a journalist in Penang, and has served The Star for over 35 years in various capacities and roles. He is now group editorial and corporate affairs adviser to the group, after having served as group managing director/chief executive officer. On The Beat made its debut on Feb 23 1997 and Chun Wai has penned the column weekly without a break, except for the occasional press holiday when the paper was not published. In May 2011, a compilation of selected articles of On The Beat was published as a book and launched in conjunction with his 50th birthday. Chun Wai also comments on current issues in The Star.

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Sunday, November 15, 2020

Why American presidents matter

More than two dozen psychiatrists think Trump is dangerous and unfit for office

Strong leaders club: Lee Kuan Yew was an admirer of Reagan and Nixon.— AP Photo/File 

 

 The zeitgeist of the world is infused by the character of the US leader. Biden will bring back the civility and generosity that the American spirit is associated with.


THE first American president to enter my personal consciousness was John F. Kennedy. It wasn’t his stirring rhetoric that reached me as a child in Singapore. It was the news of his assassination. The sense of loss was globally palpable. History has been kind to him.

He was succeeded by Lyndon Baines Johnson. As a child, I was puzzled. How could someone so ugly succeed someone who was so attractive? Indeed, he was boorish. Legend has it that he would summon his staff to meetings while sitting on his toilet seat, doing his business.

Still, history will be kind to him. His bold and massive civil rights legislation changed the course of US history. Which may explain why he has the most voluminous and still unfinished biography of any recent American president, in the four volumes by Robert Caro.

History has been unkind to Richard Nixon, his successor. Watergate killed him. The liberal media has not forgiven him. Yet there’s no doubt that he changed the course of human history. Without Nixon, Henry Kissinger could not have gone to China.

Lee Kuan Yew named Nixon as the greatest American president he had met, saying: “But for the misfortune of Watergate, I would say Richard Nixon. He had a realistic view of the world. He was a great analyst, realistic, but also a tactician to get things done.”

When Nixon stepped down, Lee lost a true friend in the White House, a major asset for the leader of a small country.

This partially explained the contempt Lee had for Jimmy Carter, whom he considered naive. In Tom Plate’s book, Giants Of Asia: Conversations With Lee Kuan Yew, Lee named Carter the worst president, saying of him: “Your job as a leader is to inspire and to galvanise, not to share your distraught thoughts. You make your people dispirited.”

Fortunately, Carter was succeeded by the two-term Ronald Reagan, another admirer of Lee. I was present when they met in the White House. Still, as a Singapore diplomat in Washington and New York during Reagan’s era, I experienced the condescension the liberal media displayed towards him. However, history has been very kind to Reagan, especially because of his spectacular victory over the Soviet Union.

Reagan was succeeded by another great friend and admirer of Lee, George H. W. Bush. I was present in a small room in St Petersburg, Russia, in the late 1990s, when Bush confirmed that the No 1 leader he admired in the world was Lee.

I reported this to him. Sadly, Bush became a one-term president, and his departure was another huge blow to Lee.

The point of these stories is a simple one. The selection of an American president has huge consequences for the world, including Singapore.

What Biden offers

Indeed, given the overwhelming power of America, especially in the media and communication dimensions, the zeitgeist of the world is infused by the character and personality of the American president.

Donald Trump’s narcissistic and self-absorbed personality has deprived the world of a major source of inspiration, especially after Barack Obama.

So what does the election of Joe Biden bring to the world? Will good times return? The short answer is yes and no.

Biden is a truly decent human being. He will bring back the civility and generosity that the American spirit is associated with.

However, Biden also knows that he is taking over a deeply divided country, as demonstrated by the huge numbers who voted for Trump even though he was defeated. His priority is to heal his country, not create a better world.

Nonetheless, Biden has at least three opportunities he can capitalise on to retain his positive glow.

First, he can bring back some boredom to the White House. Both America and the world have become exhausted by Trump’s tweets and in-your-face presence. Some calm and reticence by the Biden administration will help to return the world to a certain degree of normalcy.

Biden knows that he cannot do this alone. Fortunately, he has assembled a formidable transitional team of real American heavyweights. They share Biden’s distress over the divisions in the country. Repairing the wounds in American society and bringing back a happy America will be the main priority.

The second opportunity is geopolitical. Biden cannot reverse the US-China geopolitical contest, for reasons I have documented in my book, Has China Won? He would be persecuted if he is seen to be soft on China. Yet, even if he cannot reverse course on China, he can press the pause button on the contest.

Americans believe in common sense. Simple common sense would say that Americans should first deal with the pressing challenges of Covid-19 and economic slowdown, not to mention global warming.

All these problems would be better handled with some degree of cooperation with China. Just as Winston Churchill partnered an adversary, Joseph Stalin, to defeat Adolf Hitler, Biden can partner a competitor, China, to defeat Covid19. Both Nixon and Lee would have approved such a Machiavellian manoeuvre against a common foe.

The third opportunity lies in stopping America’s drift towards a plutocracy. One key reason why Trump was elected in 2016 was because of the “sea of despair” among the white working classes. This is because America is the only major developed economy where the average income of the bottom 50% has gone down. The anguish of these white working classes must be dealt with. Some redistribution must take place.

Reagan delegitimised taxes. Biden must re-legitimise them. And, if America’s many plutocrats are wise, they would support him.

In short, Biden can apply some gentle soothing balm on the many wounds generated by the Trump presidency. His greatest asset is his decency. Plain decency will bring a lot of healing to America. Trump may have been cruel to call him “Sleepy Joe”. Yet a “Sleepy Joe” and calm American presidency may be good for America and the world. 

 By KISHORE MAHBUBANI Kishore Mahbubani is a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, and the author of ‘Has The West Lost It?’ and ‘Has China Won?’-ANN

 

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