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Showing posts with label investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investments. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Unlocking bond yields for retirement

 

A solution must be found to help retirees get hold of smaller portions of decent-yielding corporate bonds Retirees can also close the gap on their replacement rate through investment funds that pay out dividends monthly



ONE of the best ways for retirees to secure a good income replacement rate is by generating decent yields from their investments.

The replacement rate refers to the percentage of a person’s pre-retirement income that is replaced by retirement income.

A reliable source of this yield can come from corporate bonds.

However, for those looking to tap into such investment products, getting your hands on decent-yielding corporate bonds is not easy.

The reason for this is simple: access to these bonds often seems to be reserved only for the banks’ rich clientele through their private wealth management services.

For instance, bonds issued by local banks or blue-chip corporations that yield around 6% to 7% annually typically require a minimum investment of about RM250,000.

But why are these bonds not sliced and diced for the man on the street?

Some argue that banks, which manage the issuance and sale of these bonds (just like they handle initial public offerings), take all for themselves and their wealthy clients.

Banks, in turn, claim that there just isn’t enough corporate bonds coming into the market.

Incidentally, government debt papers, which are highly secure, typically do not provide sufficiently high yields to make a meaningful difference for retirees.

A solution must be found to help retirees get hold of smaller portions of decent-yielding corporate bonds.

Additionally, another way to boost yields for retirees and close the gap on their replacement rate is through investment funds that pay out dividends monthly.

This is a healthy, growing trend among issuers, and more unit trust and asset management companies should follow suit.

Finally, while the unit trust market has made strides in lowering fees – a thorny, ongoing issue – some players still charge too much.

Regulation should be introduced to ensure that the man on the street does not get unfairly charged for products that he or she relies on to provide income during retirement



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Sunday, August 4, 2024

Property market and affordability

 

Affordability goes hand in hand with income.

Affordability goes hand in hand with income.

THE older wisdom believes that a market cycle typically lasts about 10 years. While this is not set in stone and social media has somewhat disrupted this timeframe, one sector that seems to have moved in tandem with this timeline is the property sector.

The Malaysian property market has been on a downtrend for close to a decade. Take the KL Property Index (KLPRP). It has not revisited its peak in 2024. From a high of 1,524 on Aug 18, 2014, it fell to a low of 495 on March 23, 2020, during the Covid-19 lockdowns.

However, this past year, the KLPRP has performed extraordinarily, rebounding to 1,132 as at July 31, 2024, delivering a yearto-date return of 31%.

Is this the sign that our property market is truly on the path to recovery? It the worst over for the sector which has been in the doldrums for over a decade?

The peak of the property market was marked with the rollout of the popular “Developer Interest Bearing Scheme”.

This scheme essentially allows purchasers of property to pay only the initial deposit, with the developer absorbing the interest throughout the construction period until vacant possession.

This eased the entry for many first-time homebuyers who were previously deterred by deposit and interest repayment obligations.

However, as the market overheated, the government abolished the scheme. Nonetheless, various modified schemes continue to exist in the market.

We started witnessing many businesses diversified into property development.

Firefighting equipment manufacturers, confectionery makers and even textile companies entered the sector and became property developers overnight.

This led to a surge in the supply of properties. We must remember, in the past, properties were built sideways.

With advancements in technology and new regulations such as higher plot ratios, properties started being built upwards, unlocking a significant number of units and pushing up land costs.

There was also the mushrooming of “property gurus” who conducted seminars on property investment, which spurred speculations further.

The worst were those that propagate “compressed loans”, where buyers exploited a loophole in the banking system by submitting multiple loan applications at the same time to various banks for several properties.

This allowed them to borrow loans for several properties as the system then was not able to catch these simultaneous submissions.

All was well and good when the market was hot, as buyers could do a quick flip.

But when the market turned, many of these buyers could neither find buyers nor rent out the properties. Without the financial ability to service multiple loans at the same time, their properties were auctioned by the banks.

This led to a huge number of property units being put on the auction market. The situation was further exacerbated when the pandemic hit, causing many people to lose their income.

At one point, there were more than 200 listed companies on Bursa Malaysia involved in property development. As the supply of unsold units far outpaced demand, there was a compression in margins and write downs for many listed developers.

Sales were affected and many projects which were launched could barely achieve 50% of the sales threshold.

The situation was further complicated by delayed project completions, leading to liquidated ascertained damages (LAD) claims piling up.

The verdict of Ang Ming Lee & Ors v Menteri Kesejahteraan Bandar [2020] 1 MLJ 281 led to many homebuyers filing suits against property developers, with the estimated claims reaching Rm48mil due to the extension of time (EOT) granted between 2016 and 2020.

The property market was indeed plagued with many challenges to a point where a veteran industry leader publicly commented that “the golden age of property sector is gone”.

As with all cycles, there is always a turning point. It seemed from the start of 2024, green shoots appeared for the property sector.

Firstly, the catalyst came when the government unveiled the potential of setting up a special economic zone for Singapore and Johor.

Secondly, the inflow of data centre investments drove up land transactions, with many property developers which had landbanks in Johor starting to cash out at significant premiums to their entry prices.

The average transaction price of agriculture land suited for the data centres was in the range of RM60 per sq ft.

Most of these land were less than RM30 per sq ft a year ago. This led to investors paying attention to the market down south.

Furthermore, banks’ appetite for end-financing picked up in the past two years, with an increase in both loan application submissions and approvals.

The latest Federal Court decision in Obata-ambak Holdings Sdn Bhd v Prema Bonanza Sdn Bhd and two other appeals, which discussed the Ang Ming Lee case, stated the ruling on the EOT shall only apply prospectively and not retrospectively.

This was the cherry on the icing, allowing many developers faced by mounting LAD claims to breathe a sigh of relief. It is quite clear that 2024 is an important year for property developers, with the sector seemingly to be firing on all cylinders.

Yet, the Khazanah Research Institute director in a webinar last week, highlighted that our housing market is consistently unaffordable and was against offering “affordable financing” with long tenures.

She proposed for the migration from the current sell-then-build model to the buildand-sell model like other developed countries.

In my view, this policy idea is regressive in nature and not suitable to the current economic structure of Malaysia.

It is too shallow as the crux of the problem of property ownership in our country is due to low wage growth rather than high property price.

Affordability goes hand in hand with income. If the people’s incomes do not increase, affordability will always be a problem, regardless of whether there is affordable financing or otherwise.

Similarly, the migration to build-and-sell will not help the property market pricing in any way apart from reducing abandoned housing or “Project Sakit”.

The repercussion of a migration in model is far-reaching.

While I do agree that this would weed out many incompetent property developers and offer better protection to homebuyers, the downside would be the impact on the supply of property to the market and risk of financially strong property developers cornering the market, leading to oligopolistic or cartel behaviour.

This would eventually drive asset prices up further due to supply scarcity.

At the end of the day, I believe the rationale for property ownership differs from one person to another.

Some believe that real estate is among the safest and most reliable asset classes for investment purposes and hedging against inflation.

Others believe that real estate has limited upside, hence renting is more practical without the long-term loan commitments affecting their lifestyle preferences. This is especially prevalent among the youth today.

My personal view is that the property sector, like any other sector, has its own cycles, and depending on which point one enters the market, there will be different outcomes.

This will shape individual perspective when it comes to property ownership.

Whether the sector remains positive in the long term depends heavily on two key factors – population growth and a burgeoning middle-income society.

By Ng zhu hann Ng zhu hann is the chief executive officer of tradeview Capital. he is also a lawyer and the author of Once upon a time in Bursa. the views expressed here are the writer’s own.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/insight/2024/08/03/property-market-and-affordability

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Tuesday, September 5, 2023

NIMP 2030 Sets Breakthrough Agenda, poised to attract more investments

 


PM Launches Malaysia’s 4th Industrial Master Plan

IT is a pivotal moment for Malaysia’s industrial development.

Malaysia’s manufacturing sector has to accelerate the Fourth Industrial Revolution, taking advantage of smart technologies to move its production base up the value chain while conforming to environmental, social and governance and meeting net-zero target.

Amid increasing geo-economic complexity and the escalating impact of climate change, Malaysia needs a new generation of sustainable industrial transformation to lever up the economy to sustain resilient and competitive advantage internationally.

The manufacturing sector remains one of the primary engines of growth (2022: 24.1% of gross domestic product or GDP: 84.2% of total exports and 16.8% of total employment) and had expanded at steady rate of 4.8% per annum in 2015-2022 (4.9% per annum in 2011-2015).

The New Industrial Master Plan (NIMP) targets to increase the manufacturing sector’s value-added by 6.5% per annum to RM587.5bil by 2030 (RM364.1bil in 2022); employment growth of 2.3% per annum to 3.3 million in 2023 (2022: 2.7 million persons); while median salary will increase by 9.6% per annum to RM4,510 in 2030 (2021: RM1,976).

The country has prematurely deindustrialised since early 2000s, mainly due to increased global competition and slow progress in moving up the value chain.

Malaysia’s Economic Complexity Index ranking (24th in 2021), which indicates the productive capability of an economy, was lagging behind advanced economies (first for Japan, fourth for South Korea and sixth for Singapore); other developing regional peers are fast catching up (29th for Thailand); and labour productivity growth has moderated and stagnated (2.3% per annum in 2013-2022).

Our regional peers are receiving more foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in recent years.

During the period 2017-2022, Malaysia registered FDI inflows of US$9.4bil per year compared to US$96.4bil per year for Singapore, US$20.9bil per year for Indonesia and US$15.8bil per year for Vietnam.

The Philippines is catching up fast (US$9.2bil per year) while Thailand’s FDI has dwindled to US$7.1bil per year.

The NIMP 2030 sets the breakthrough agenda for Malaysia’s manufacturing sector’s next take-off in the new green industrial age.

The NIMP maps out a comprehensive industrial direction, strategies and enablers with the aim of positioning Malaysia for new growth catalytic sectors and industries in the decades ahead.

The NIMP 2030 calls for a “Whole-of-Nation” approach and adopts a mission-based approach to drive the manufacturing transformation in four ways:

> Advancing economic complexity,

> Tech-up for a digitally vibrant nation,

> Pushing for the net-zero target, and

> Safeguarding economic security and inclusivity.

The master plan will chart a new generation of sustainable industrial policies, underpinned by four enablers, 20 strategies and 56 action plans.

Domestic manufacturing industries have to strengthen their resilience and competitiveness to counter operational challenges caused by geo-economic conflicts that disrupt supply chains, resource scarcity that threatens energy and utilities security, and adverse climate change disruptions.

The identified five pivotal sectors are:

> Electrical products and electronics,

> Chemical and chemical products,

> Advanced materials,

> Aerospace, and

> Healthcare (including medical devices and pharmaceuticals).

All industries will be driven strategically to embrace these four missions for reconstructing and developing a solid and sustainable manufacturing sector and also for exporting resilience.

The services sector must also move up the value chain to support the manufacturing sector.

While the lead agencies and parties involved were identified to implement the mission-based projects, accountability and responsibility are therefore critical to ensuring a successful implementation of the mission-based projects.

We need a strong accountability to ensure alignment and coordination among the stakeholders and parties to clearly define the project scope and deliverable.

Roles and responsibilities across ministries on investment issues tend to be unclear and sometimes lack co-ordination.

Hence, an effective implementation of a one-stop centre is a crucial investment facilitation mechanism whereby relevant ministries and government agencies are coordinated at a single point to provide prompt, efficient and transparent services to investors to shorten and simplify administrative procedures and guidelines ultimately, thereby removing bottlenecks faced by both local and foreign investors in establishing and running businesses in Malaysia.

Investment climate reforms are necessary. While the government has made efforts on transparency, the rule of law, weeding out corruption and strengthen the quality of institutions, they have not been sufficiently consistent to improve investor confidence and ensure responsible business practices by both foreign and domestic companies.

The government has to bolster collaborations between the federal government, state governments and local authorities to facilitate investment.

We support the Investment, Trade and Industry Ministry’s efforts to streamline the 31 Investment Promotion Agencies, with the Malaysian Investment Development Authority leading the way.

Domestic direct investment (DDI), especially by micro and SMEs (MSMEs), are crucial for supporting industrial ecosystem.

The inclusion of DDI as a key performance indicator is a positive step to facilitate and raise the quality of domestic investment.

MSMEs should be provided with opportunities to gradually scale up their industries through horizontal and vertical integration as well as to embrace green practices.

This necessitates capital investment in advancing technological and digitalisation capabilities, ensuring an ample supply of highly skilled and knowledge-based human capital, and more importantly, access to financing, grant and development fund.

It is estimated that a total of RM95bil will be invested throughout seven years to implement NIMP, predominantly coming from the private sector.

We support the action plans to mobilise the financing ecosystem (financial institutions and capital market), including the introduction of the NIMP Strategic Co-Investment Fund and NIMP Industrial Development Fund to support strategies, action plans and mission-based projects as well as for industries and businesses, especially MSMEs.

However, the NIMP did not provide an estimation of the amount of financing and funds needed to support the industrial transformation.

As SMEs often encounter challenges in accessing financial resources and credit facilities, it is therefore necessary to broaden the range of financing instruments available to SMEs and entrepreneurs, by improving understanding about a full range of financing instruments they can access in varying circumstances, and by encouraging discussions among stakeholders about new approaches and innovative policies for SMEs and entrepreneurship financing.

For SME green facilitation, we proposed:

> The creation of a web-based tool in partnership between the industry associations and environmental regulator to provide free environmental guidance to SMEs; and

> The provision of an ESG assessment toolkit to guide SMEs embark on their ESG journey by identifying gaps in their management system based on the 12 ESG indicators identified.

Manpower and integration with technology is integral for the industrial transformation. Swift action must be taken to review and address the manpower planning and development programmes.

These include the supply of skilled manpower; adaption; and reskilling and upskilling of workers that are future proof, including the hiring of foreign talent to supplement domestic pool of workforce.

The quality assurance of Technical and Vocational Education Training has to be revamped and enhanced.

We support the implementation of the multi-tier levy model to reduce over-dependency on low-skilled foreign workers, but the levy must not be too steep during the transition period as it would be significantly burdening the employment and operating costs of MSMEs.

The implementation of Progressive Wage System on a voluntary basis and incentive-based approach for MSMEs for the skill set categories along with the minimum wage must be productivity-linked.

We support the action plans to drive promotional activities of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RECP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and export consortia, given the low utilisation rate and awareness among the business community.

We propose:

> The design of a tariff finder to support traders to maximise benefits from the RCEP and CPTPP to help businesses, to get up-to-date information on the preferential tariffs and the rules of origin criteria used to determine a product’s eligibility for preferential tariff treatment, and

> The setting up of a one-stop advisory centre for all FTA-related enquiries from businesses; gather feedback on tariffs and non-tariffs issues for better trade and investment facilitation.

Strategic planning is hard but the real challenge is execution. Without a careful and planned approach to execution, strategic goals cannot be attained.

Hence, we need a pragmatic approach to monitor and track the progress of the proposed action plans and mission-based projects; and make timely interventions and facilitation across collaborations between ministries and agencies as well as provide resolutions to achieve the deliverables.

- Lee Heng Guie is Socio-Economic Research Centre executive director. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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NIMP 2030 Sets Breakthrough Agenda For Manufacturing ...


NIMP 2030 poised to attract more investments



PETALING JAYA: The current investing focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) and sustainability will likely help the New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP 2030) attract further targeted investments into the country.

The plan also appears to aim to capitalise on the opportunities from the recent shift in investments away from China due to the global trade tensions.

According to CGS-CIMB Research, the NIMP 2030 is a comprehensive plan, noting that the government appears to understand the limitations and hurdles of the current industrial setting such as the reliance on cheap foreign labour and low research and development adoption.

“If this strategy works, ESG-conscious companies could be more interested in investing in Malaysia such as Tesla.

“We also see a new set of industries being emphasised, in particular electric vehicles (EVs) and carbon capture, utilisation and storage, which capitalise on Malaysia’s existing strength and advantages,” CGS-CIMB Research said.

However, it also noticed certain sectors were receiving less emphasis than in previous plans such as biotechnology, although pharmaceutical, a subset of biotechnology, was highlighted in the report.

“A few policy suggestions in the NIMP 2030 are not new, for instance, the multi-tier levy system for foreign workers, which has been delayed, given the pushback by industry players. Hence, successful execution is key,” it said.

“Thus far, the NIMP 2030 certainly improves the long-term prospects for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but we maintain our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4% year-on-year and 4.6% in 2024,” the research house added.

Meanwhile, UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) Research said it believes the electrical and electronics (E&E) industry is poised to be the largest beneficiary of the plan.

“The NIMP 2030 is a catalyst for trade diversion for foreign direct investment, the creation/entrenchment of regional champions, and new emerging industry clusters such as EV and renewable energy (RE),” UOBKH Research said.

It noted the E&E industry, which accounts for some 40% of the country’s exports, is poised to grow further from the NIMP 2030 catalyst.

“The well-strategised plan targets to enhance the sector’s value-add, employment and wage dynamics by deepening the economic complexity of the supply chain, upskilling and support for small and medium enterprises,” UOBKH Research said.

“While we await the granularity of incentives and rollouts, our top manufacturing picks include Cape EMS Bhd, Inari Amertron Bhd and NationGate Holdings Bhd,” UOBKH Research said.

These companies are noted for their alpha growth on strong visibility of better order loadings from their new and key customers from the supply chain reconfiguration amid the trade diversion, it said.

For the outsourced semiconductor assembly and test players, it likes Inari for its strong growth trajectory premised on its new flagship programme, inventory replenishment and the fruition of its new business collaboration.

Other companies such as Greatech Technology Bhd are noted for their solid order-book backlogs with more than 50% exposure to the high-margin EV and RE sectors alongside their unique value proposition while other beneficiaries include packaging company L&P Global Bhd, it said.

Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank Research said the NIMP 2030 is a positive move, but noted the key to its success will depend on the strong cooperation across multiple key stakeholders that cuts across federal and state governments as well as agencies.

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Sunday, March 5, 2023

A good payday for EPF contributors, as EPF declares 5.35% dividends for 2022

 Dividend a surprise, much more than economists predicted, says ecperts

PETALING JAYA: With the current economic challenges, the 5.35% dividend by the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) for 2022 is considered good for contributors, say economists.

Sunway University Economic Studies Programme director Prof Yeah Kim Leng called it laudable given last year’s challenging local and international financial as well as capital market conditions.

The Russian-Ukraine conflict and spikes in inflation and interest rates weren’t of help either, he said.

ALSO READ: RM145.5bil in EPF withdrawals made since 2020 

“Though lower than last year’s 6.1%, the 5.35% is above earlier expectations that were close to 5%,” said Prof Yeah.

“The performance is also respectable as the fund had to adjust its portfolio to meet the large withdrawals allowed as part of the Covid-19 pandemic support packages,” he said in response to EPF’s announcement yesterday.

The EPF declared a dividend rate of 5.35% for conventional savings, with a total RM45.44bil payout, as well as 4.75% for syariah savings. This amounts to RM5.7bil in payout.

ALSO READ: When wages go up, so will EPF’s funds, says CEO

In total, EPF will be paying RM51.14bil to contributors.

As for unhappiness among contributors over the dividend rates, Prof Yeah said it is not surprising for them to compare EPF returns with other pension funds as such funds are typically more conservative and earn lower but have more stable returns.

“By contrast, funds that generate higher returns entail taking higher risks. Therefore, many growth funds are earning much lower returns because of the financial market downturn in 2022 as evident by the nearly 20% decline in the Global MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) benchmark,” he pointed out.

ALSO READ: Low wages must be addressed, 81% of active EPF members earn RM5,000 or less

Economist Datuk Jalilah Baba said EPF’s dividend rate still exceeded many pundits’ expectations.

“People will still receive payouts, which is a good sign. Perhaps it may not be what was expected but even I expected it to be around 4.5% to 5%.

“Based on EPF’s calculations, they can still afford to give people money, so it is good news for contributors. On the average, this is considered stable.

“If people were to compare, say with 2017 with its 6.9% dividend rate, you also have to look at the economy at the time because now the situation is totally different and filled with uncertainties.

ALSO READ: COMPETITIVE RETURNS AMID TOUGH INVESTMENT CLIMATE

“As such, the scenario has to adjust to the collection they have,” she said.

Meanwhile, corporate executive P. Suganya, 37, from Subang Jaya, Selangor said if EPF continued to give lower rates than previously, Malaysians might have to set aside their savings for other investment schemes as they might not have enough EPF savings for their retirement due to the volatile market.

However, she said most Malaysians could not afford to set aside part of their income for investments due to the high cost of living as well as the anticipated recession.

“This is worrying and the EPF is a fixed and reliable investment most Malaysians rely on. And the contributions are automatic and accounted for,” she said.

ALSO READ: EPF's assets under management drop for first time since 1985

“EPF has to be cautious in its investments in the current volatile market since the fund cited this as a reason for the lower gross investment returns,” she added.

Facebook user T. Gopal Thirumalai commented that even though people were worried about the shrinking size of the funds in EPF, it was important to know that good fund managers would get rid of low-yielding investments, shares and assets that actually give better returns.

“When high returning funds are no longer available and your fund size keeps increasing every month, what would you do with excess funds, month after month?

“On top of that, unlike instruments with fixed dividends, when you invest in shares, you cannot predict future returns.

“A share with historical high returns can become the opposite during uncertain times.

“At that time, you decide on what to do,” he posted on the social media platform. 

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EPF is the safest bet | The Star

 

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/03/11/epf-is-the-safest-bet