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Showing posts with label semiconductor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label semiconductor. Show all posts

Sunday, September 17, 2023

Chips, politics and economic dominance

Officially Huawei became the world’s number one smartphone player after shipping 55.8 million handsets, surpassing Samsung in the second quarter of 2020. — Bloomberg

SMIC'S progress in industry commendable effort despite sanctions

 
TWO weeks ago, without much fanfare or large-scale promotional event, Huawei Technologies launched a surprise pre-sale of its latest Mate flagship model.

This was out of the blue, considering that Huawei suffered for the past three years since the United States trade sanction during the Donald Trump-led administration which placed Huawei on the export blacklist depriving the phone and network giant from key semiconductor components necessary to manufacture its successful premium smartphone products.

At its peak in 2020, Huawei had 38% of China’s total smartphone market share with Vivo coming in second at 17.7% and Oppo coming in third at 17.4%.

Globally, Huawei had just over 10% with much room to catch up to Samsung and Apple, which had an estimated 30% and 26% respectively.

Despite that, it officially became the world’s number one smartphone player after shipping 55.8 million handsets, surpassing Samsung in the second quarter of 2020.

This did not last long, as in the year after the trade sanctions kicked in, Huawei suffered immensely when its revenue for the consumer division plunged 47% in the first half of 2021 and fell out of the world’s top five smartphone maker for the first time in six years. 

 If that wasn’t enough, Huawei had to endure a prolonged winter because of the sanctions with market commentators even speculating they will exit the smartphone market entirely.

To stay afloat, Huawei sold off its entire stake in Honor, the budget range smartphone business for Us$15.2bil to Shenzhen Zhixin New Information Technology Co Ltd, a consortium made up of over 30 dealers and includes a state-owned enterprise of the municipal government of Shenzhen.

Hence, when social media caught wind of Huawei Mate 60 pro with videos of long queues for the launch of the smartphone, it attracted global attention. The two questions on everyone’s mind were, “how did Huawei do it with the sanctions ongoing?” and “is this the start of Huawei’s path to reclaim its smartphone throne?”

For those who are not too familiar, one should understand that chips are denominated in different measurements such as 5nm, 7nm and 10nm. It represents the specific generation of chips made with a particular technology and the smaller numbers represent more advanced and efficient technology.

In the past, these numbers indicated the size of the smallest features or transistors that can be produced on a chip using a particular manufacturing process.

What is interesting about Huawei’s latest smartphone launch is that the Kirin 9000s System on Chip that powers the phone model appears to be manufactured using an advanced 7nm process.

Following the trade sanction which was meant to cripple Huawei’s advancement in smartphone manufacturing, most would assume that Huawei would not have access to advanced chips.

In addition, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), China’s state-backed chip manufacturer which is widely regarded to be the top in China, is only capable of producing 14nm at that time. In addition, SMIC has not been able to procure the advanced Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems that are used to produce chips at 7nm and below before they were sanctioned as well.

Based on teardown analysis by reviewers online, the chip’s overall performance seems to match that of Snapdragon 888 or Apple A13 chipsets which were launched in 2019-2020. But for those who might have some familiarity with the chip fabrication industry, this is likely not the case as the 7nm chip could be produced using the older generation deep ultraviolet machines which China manufacturers can still import.

This would require usage of multi-patterning, a technique that has been utilised by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) in 2017 of producing 7nm chips before EUV was introduced.

In fact, SMIC reportedly used this technique to produce a 7nm chip for bitcoin miners last year, so they are no stranger to the technique.

The downside of this technique is that it will waste more time, energy, water, while also resulting in higher defects and lower yield. Hence the cost of production is likely much higher.

Nonetheless, EUV machines are still needed to advance beyond 5nm process, and at 3nm and below, multi-patterning would be required even with EUV machines. Hence, we can say that the real bottleneck of the United States trade sanction will hit it hard beyond 5nm.

Currently, SMIC, while improving, is still lagging its global peers; TSMC and Samsung have already started mass production of chips using the 3nm process in 2022 which is two generations ahead of the 7nm process used by SMIC.

The gap is around four years but without access to EUV machines, it could take much longer for SMIC to reach 3nm. It is important to note that all its competitors are now working towards mass production of 2nm chips in 2025.

Considering how SMIC is also sanctioned by the United States, it is remarkable to see it making progress. SMIC will likely continue to be supported by the Chinese government in developing advanced chips.

So long as self-interest politics remains the priority over mutual prosperity and the technology transfer agenda, we will see companies and manufacturing bases move across regions based on the countries’ political alignments or foreign policies rather than merits.

Apart from the United States and European manufacturers that have been diversifying production out of China, even some Chinese suppliers are building new factories in our country as they do not want to lose their markets outside of China.

For now, most are setting up in the existing states with matured industry supply chains such as in Penang and Johor.

Hence, sad to say, while this fight between the two economic powerhouse is detrimental to the world in the long term, in the short term, it appears that it is good for our nation, and we should continue to capitalise on the opportunity.

At the end of the day, every country, especially the larger economies, hopes to maintain its economic dominance over the rest of the world. This era, thankfully, is not an era where the wars between countries are fought with guns and bullets. It is an era where the race is on technological advancement and scientific breakthrough.

Apart from the semiconductor chip competition that has been ongoing since the start of the United States-china trade war, the Covid-19 global pandemic has raised the awareness for the government on the importance on advancing research and development in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Even countries with the strongest military power cannot avoid the same fate of being engulfed in the effects of the pandemic like any other Third World country.

Unlike the United States, Europe, Taiwan and South Korea, China started research and development in the semiconductor industry much later. We must remember China only started focusing on developing its advanced chip technology recently.

Before the decoupling with the United States happened in 2020, there was no urgency to do so, given that they could still rely on imported technology.

As nations around the world continue to become more tribal, it is crucial to be self-sufficient, be it in the area of technology development, healthcare or food security. It may take awhile but eventually, government leaders ought to revert to multilateralism and focus on the benefits of building a global economy in the interests of mankind.

That is the best way forward for humanity.

By NG ZHU HANN

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Ten Republican lawmakers jointly sent a letter dated Thursday to Alan Estevez, undersecretary of Commerce for Industry and Security, exerting pressure and presenting seven demands. These demands include the establishment of a new agency dedicated to controlling the export of American technology to China, imposing “full blocking sanctions” on both Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and Huawei, and placing all their subsidiary companies on the Entity List.

Thursday, August 10, 2023

TSMC: The global giant it didn’t aspire to be; US hijacks Taiwan's high-tech industries, squeezes island's economic future

 

FILE PHOTO: A smartphone with a displayed TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) logo is placed on a computer motherboard in this illustration taken March 6, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

 

Coupled with current plans, TSMC will have factories in five countries spread over three continents, rivalling the sprawl of rivals Intel Corp and Samsung Electronics Co. 

 

A LITTLE over three years ago, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) was among the world’s most geographically concentrated technology giants with almost the entirety of its capacity within a 300-mile radius.

Now, it is on the verge of becoming one of the most globally diversified chipmakers. This wasn’t the plan.

A new facility near Dresden, Germany, is set to begin operations in 2027, the Hsinchu-based company said yesterday.

Coupled with current plans, TSMC will have factories in five countries spread over three continents, rivalling the sprawl of rivals Intel Corp and Samsung Electronics Co.

These overseas plants add to the significant operations it has in Taiwan and the two existing sites in China. (For more than 25 years it has also owned a fab near Portland, which though profitable is small and not seen as a company success story.)

Having all its manufacturing close to home has always been an advantage for the made-to-order chip foundry.

The tight relationship between research and development, and factory operations, where engineers can easily shuffle between production lines, helped TSMC become a fast-moving supplier in a high-stakes industry. Dotting the world with fabs risked diluting this advantage.

But then TSMC’s true global expansion kicked off in May 2020 with the announcement of a new facility in Arizona, a project which was enhanced two years later to include a second plant at the site, taking total investment in the Southwestern state to US$40bil.

A venture with Japan’s Sony Group Corp, unveiled in 2021, took TSMC in a new direction. Instead of owning a factory outright, Sony Semiconductor Solutions Corp will take a 20% stake in a factory being built in Kumamoto.

Automotive components supplier Denso Corp later signed on to take a stake of over 10%. That plant is closer to Shanghai than Tokyo.

Dresden is a continuation down that path of working with clients to jointly own facilities, largely to supply the growing demand for components used in automobiles.

TSMC will invest up to €3.5bil for a 70% share of newly formed European Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

Robert Bosch GmbH, Infineon Technologies AG and NXP Semiconductors NV each take 10%, and total capital expenditure is expected to be around US$11bil, with the money coming from equity, debt and German and European Union funding.

Since its founding by Morris Chang more than three decades ago, TSMC eschewed equity partnerships in favour of maintaining full control over its operations, and thus its destiny.

But the global winds have changed, and its new leaders, chairman Mark Liu and chief executive officer CC Wei, have had little choice but to adapt.

TSMC’s balance sheet is solid, its cash flow is stable, and its credit rating is high. It doesn’t need clients nor governments to hand it money in order to pay for these new facilities.

What it does need, though, is buy-in. These remote factories at locations many time zones from home require firm orders as well as a solid commitment from third parties motivated to ensure the company’s success.

Having the likes of Sony, Infineon and NXP on the ownership list ensures they have skin in the game, while government involvement should help secure political and economic support.

Suddenly, TSMC goes from being an under-the-radar Taiwanese supplier solely focused on a coterie of semiconductor clients, to a global entity with multiple stakeholders across numerous national and local jurisdictions. It’s already proving to be a difficult adjustment.

Liu last month announced the delay of its Arizona opening by about a year. Time spent navigating local regulations and a struggle for talent, including among vendors, means TSMC won’t kick off operations there until 2025.

Last week, the company signed an agreement with Arizona governor Katie Hobbs to follow a worker safety programme that’s stricter than federal rules, a sign that TSMC needs to keep adjusting to a changing regulatory landscape.

Continued concerns about pay and conditions among local workers means a labour dispute could flare up at anytime, a situation uncommon at home in Taiwan.

Also of surprise is the escalating scale of divergence between costs in the United States and Taiwan, which will likely force the chipmaker to charge clients like Apple Inc and Nvidia Corp significantly more for products made in Arizona.

The Japan plan appears to remain on track for production late next year, with a high chance a second fab will be added to the project. Yet despite the US$60bil to be spent in total by all parties, the new facilities will account for no more than 10% of global capacity.

And not all fabs are created equal; the best stuff will remain in Taiwan for the foreseeable future, with Dresden and Kumamoto both deploying much older production technology – which is fine because automotive chips don’t need anything more modern.

Still, these foreign partners have no reason to complain. Clients are getting a stake in, and access to, precisely the factories and know-how they need.

Governments, meanwhile, can tell their constituents that they’ve been successful in luring the world’s most important technology company to their shores.

TSMC is also a winner. Just five years ago, the company warned investors that the European Commission was looking into concerns about “alleged anti-competitive practices” in relation to semiconductor sales.

The US Fair Trade Commission was also showing interest, it was reported at the time. Nothing came of these probes, but it would be particularly awkward for regulators in either jurisdiction to now accuse TSMC of being a predatory tech giant when its management has bent over backwards (and spent billions of dollars) to set up shop on their turf.

These overseas plants also dampen the constant drumbeat among rivals that TSMC is overly concentrated in one place, and that governments and chip customers need to look elsewhere.

Now, the company is giving them that “elsewhere.” Half the world gets a piece of TSMC, and in return all the chipmaker had to do was lean into globalisation. — Bloomberg

Tim Culpan is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering technology in Asia. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. 

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Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Malaysian Chip industry outlook remains bright, says expert

 

Attendees of the talk and networking session for semiconductor industry players in Penang.

MALAYSIA’S role in the global semiconductor supply chain is invaluable as the country is one of the United States’ largest semiconductor trading partners.

Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) president and chief executive officer John Neuffer said Malaysia was also a leader in semiconductor assembly, test, and packaging.

“The Semiconductor Industry Association looks forward to continuing our work with our counterparts in Malaysia to ensure Malaysia and our industry can thrive, innovate, and realise an even brighter future built on semiconductors,” he said.

Speaking after the Malaysia Semiconductor Industry Association (MSIA) and SIA talk and networking session with MSIA members in George Town, Neuffer said in the 1990s, “the US produced 37% of the world’s chips but today, it only generates 10%.”

“The US has not kept pace with the rest of the world and it has seen chip manufacturing growth everywhere in the world except in the US.

“Chips are designed to make the US competitive and not to replace any country, not to decouple from the world but to be a competitive destination for investment along with countries like Malaysia and many others,” he said.

Neuffer noted that the long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry was still bright with the digital transformation of every industry with technologies such as the internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence and 5G.

“Everyone needs more and more chips with the advanced growth and development of technologies worldwide.

“The good news here is that the pie will be getting bigger and the pieces of the pie will also get bigger.

“The future of the industry is bright and the CHIPS Act 2022 is not expected to badly affect the industry’s growth especially in countries like Malaysia,” he said, although the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) forecast a decline of 4.1% in the industry this year due to inflation pressures and weaker demand.

The CHIPS Act prohibits funding recipients from expanding semiconductor manufacturing in China and countries defined by US law as posing a national security threat to the US.

MSIA president Datuk Seri Wong Siew Hai, when asked about the recent US semiconductor policy, said, “Although the situation will add another layer of uncertainty to the outlook for the semiconductor industry, there is a window of opportunity for South-East Asian countries especially Malaysia.

There will be opportunities to capture investments, business opportunities and sales orders as Malaysia is quite broad based.

“In cases where US factories in China have to move, we hope the volume will eventually move out to Malaysia,” he said.

Wong added that all E&E (Electrical and Electronics) companies, US companies, Chinese companies including Malaysian companies would be assessing the potential impact of the CHIPS Act and US exports control restrictions and how they could mitigate the impact.

Wong also urged the E&E industry and the Malaysian government to move quickly to seize these opportunities.

Despite Malaysia’s Electrical and Electronics (E&E) sector’s slower global growth, exports for 2022 was RM593bil, 30% higher than in 2021.

Malaysia continues to be an attractive location for E&E companies with 7% of the global market share and 13% global market share for semiconductor assembly, test and packing.

Malaysia has attracted E&E investments of RM186.2bil since January 2020 and some of the investments have started operations with more being operational this year and in 2024.

Neuffer and his team from SIA, which is the voice of the US Semiconductor Industry, were in Malaysia to meet with key relevant stakeholders including SIA member companies and those in the E&E community.

MSIA is an industry association which covers individuals and companies incorporated in Malaysia who are involved directly or related to semiconductor industry (electronics and systems), semiconductor industry supply chain, institutions providing significant related services to semiconductor industry such as engineering, finance, legal and those societies, associations, chambers and government-linked agencies. Subscribe now to our Premium Plan for an ad-free and unlimited reading experience! 

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