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Sunday, March 1, 2020

The games Malay politicians play in Malaysia

Calmer days: In this May 9,2018, photo, Dr Mahathir with Muhyiddin speaking to reporters after the results of GE14 was announced. Yesterday, the King declared Muhyiddin as the Prime Minister. – AP

“WATCH for the game within the game, ” a tycoon who bankrolls political parties told me over coffee in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.

On that afternoon, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad shockingly announced that he quit as the Prime Minister.

The tycoon and I were discussing the botched Sunday game plan to install a Perikatan Nasional (or is it Pakatan Nasional?) government.

Something awry had happened which went against the playbook of the Perikatan Nasional plotters.

Was it because the rule of the game was changed?

Was it that the politicians had played each other out?

Was there a game within a game?

In this fast-paced political game, the entire truth has not surfaced, but soon we’ll know.

Tuesday and Wednesday’s process of the King meeting 220 MPs (except for Dr Mahathir and Padang Regas MP Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz who was overseas) individually looked like a done deal. Pakatan Harapan, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (which quit PH on Monday), sacked PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and his 10 MPs, and other minor parties had endorsed Dr Mahathir.

Then came the game within the game.

On Tuesday, after their MPs met the King individually, PKR, DAP and Amanah (which are in Pakatan Harapan) announced that it had backed PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

From a quick MPs calculation, PH with 92 MPs minus Barisan Nasional/PAS/PBRS with about 60 MPs (who not all are voting according to party line) which voted for bubar (Parliament dissolved), it was clear that Dr Mahathir had lost the vote count.

Many thought that the master of the game, Dr Mahathir, kena game (had been played).

On Thursday, Dr Mahathir – without waiting for the King to reveal the outcome of his majesty’s face to face meeting with individual MPs – declared there was no prime minister candidate with a clear majority. The interim Prime Minister announced there would be a special Parliament sitting on March 2 to determine who will be the next prime minister.

However, on Friday, the Parliament Speaker Tan Sri Mohd Ariff Yusof announced that there would not be a special Parliament sitting to determine who will be prime minister.

On that day, Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah decided to give party leaders who have MPs in the Dewan Rakyat the opportunity to nominate a prime minister.

The frontrunners to be our next PM were Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and PKR president Anwar. Seemingly, Dr Mahathir was out of the game.

The fight was shaping up to be Perikatan Nasional (a Muslim and Bumiputera majority government) versus Pakatan Harapan (a non-Muslim majority government).

From the WhatsApp messages I could barely have time to monitor, the rakyat choice depended on who they hated the most.

Some who hated DAP supported the Perikatan Nasional government and those who hated Umno and PAS preferred the Pakatan Harapan government.

Grassroots politicians were getting emotional. Some were hysterical that they have to swallow the hate words they uttered against their political enemies as they might be in the same government.

Last night, a retired veteran journalist WhatsApp-ed me: “Instead of the tik-tok of the horse race and the numbers, why isn’t anyone reporting what this is all about: a battle for Malaysia’s future and what kind of country we want to be?

“A Malaysia focused on race and religion, or a Malaysia focused on building a better tomorrow in the Digital Age?”

I agree with him.

But the game is played fast and furious that we’re trying our best to keep pace with it.

Based on a quick calculation of MPs from political parties, in the numbers game, Muhyiddin had more than Anwar.

Bersatu 36 MPs (from 26 overnight it increased by 10 MPs with Azmin and gang), Umno 39 MPs, PAS 18 MPs, Gabungan Parti Sarawak 18 MPs and minor parties, Muhyiddin won.

Whereas Anwar only had his Pakatan Harapan ally (PKR 39 MPs, DAP 42 MPs and Amanah 11 MPs).

Game over for Anwar?

No. On Friday night, it became clear that the party leaders had no control of their MPs who had different allegiance. Karma had struck Bersatu – it was civil war between Team Mahathir and Team Muhyiddin.

Some sleeper MPs were awakened to go against their party leader.

Some MPs are honourable.

Some are for sale.

Not surprising as this is the games politicians play.

The shocker was yesterday. Dr Mahathir was back in the game.

The interim Prime Minister had thrown his name in the Game of Thrones. He was now the game-changer.

Some of those who backstabbed him when they met the King on Tuesday and Wednesday were now backing him.

Yesterday, the situation was very fluid. Too many games played and play outs.

I would have preferred a bubar endgame.

Let the rakyat be the kingmakers instead of MPs.

The endgame turn out to be the king declaring Muhyiddin as Prime Minister.

To the winners of the Game of Thrones, I wish them: GGWP (Good Game, Well Played).

 Philip Golingai
by Philip Golingai



Read more:


Muhyiddin is eighth PM, says King

Muhyiddin is eighth PM, says King

 

Fix Malaysia’s democracy now! 

 

 On The Beat

 


 BN will support PM Muhyiddin, says Zahid

 


 

 Mukhriz, Syed Saddiq to face disciplinary action; Dr M no longer Bersatu chair


 

 

I feel betrayed, mostly by Muhyiddin, says Dr M

 




Related posts:

WHO IS A “MELAYU” AS EXPLAINED BY A MELAYU: Melayu by a Melayu


 

A plague on both your coalitions!


 

 Interim premier Dr Mahathir back at work in Perdana Putra; fight cronyvirus?

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Saturday, February 29, 2020

Covid-19 reaches the West


https://youtu.be/F_Jq7ItdHtA

Tourists wearing protective masks walks by the Duomo in central Milan on February 27,2020 amid fears over the spread of the novel Coronavirus. - The number of COVID-19 infections in Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe, hits the 400 mark late on February 26, with 12 deaths. (Photo by Miguel MEDINA/ AFP)

But keep cool, negative volatility will likely be followed by positive volatility


The coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak has officially reached Western shores.

Since last week, the virus has spread to Europe, Brazil and the Middle East.

New cases have emerged across Europe.

There have been more than 81,000 people infected with nearly 3,000 deaths so far.

Just the previous Wednesday on Feb 19, stocks in the US were complacently at record highs, never mind that Asian markets were roiling and taking huge hits, thanks to the coronavirus that first took roots in Wuhan, China.

Asia has been battling this disease since January. Markets have been volatile but have since recovered as the number of infections have reduced and governments have been diligent at handling the disease.

It is like the domino effect, with the same reactions, panic and emotions that happened throughout Asia now migrating to the West.

It is almost deja-vu, seeing the fear and market reaction, no doubt the impact to the Dow and S&P 500 has a significantly larger impact.

The Covid-19’s largest impact is the fear it has transmitted with rapid speed.

In the US, stocks fell for a sixth straight day on Thursday, with the S&P 500 price index falling 4.4% and bringing this pullback officially into correction territory. On a six-day basis, the Dow Jones was down 13.4% at 25,766.64.

This plummet followed California governor Gavin Newsom’s revealing on Thursday that the state was monitoring 8,400 people for potential Covid-19 infections.

Adding to the bleak outlook, Goldman Sachs slashed its profit outlook and warned the outbreak could cost Donald Trump his reelection in November.

The MSCI all-country global index has dropped more than 7% over this six-day period. Considering stocks were at record highs the previous Wednesday, this is very harsh and painful.

Why, Tesla was all the hype earlier in February. It was US$901 on Feb 21, and new higher target prices were being touted by analysts, nevermind that the stock still didn’t have a price to earnings ratio.

In the last five days, Tesla’s share price had tumbled more than US$200 or 32.7% as of Thursday to close at US$679.

Don’t panic

For the average investor, panic has likely set in.

Whose confidence level would not be shaken with a 12% decline in the S&P 500 in six trading days?

Now talk of a 20% decline is starting to emerge.

Meanwhile the 10-year US treasury yield dropped below 1.3%, remaining in record-low territory.

The downward spiral in oil also continued with WTI crude toppling 2.71% to trade at US$47.41 per barrel on Thursday. Brent oil hovered at the US$51.42 level. So just barely two months into 2020, it is Covid-19 which has been responsible for crushing markets and dismantling profits across the globe.

Many have already slashed market forecasts for the year.

In the past two market stories featured on StarBizweek, readers would know that Fisher MarketMinder thinks that fears over the virus’ market impact are overdone. It thinks that this is part of a longer-running pattern prevalent throughout this bull market.

“The stock market will do what it does – rise and fall.

“If you’ve got a plan based on your risk tolerance and investment horizon, don’t let fear make you swerve in the wrong direction and lose traction.

“Panic is never a good investment strategy, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

It adds that Covid-19 is grabbing attention because it is new and somewhat novel, but that doesn’t mean its economic effects far outweigh more familiar diseases.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there were 34,200 deaths in the United States from influenza during the 2018-2019 flu season.

For infections of Covid-19 outside of China, the mortality appears very low.

Furthermore, the people who are dying tend to be the old and immuno-suppressed or otherwise sick.

“Supply chain disruptions as officials work to contain the outbreak probably dent growth temporarily, but markets are efficient and likely pricing in these expectations as companies issue statements.

“Short-term volatility could linger, but patience should pay off, in our view, ” it adds.

As legendary investor Ben Graham once said, stocks are a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.

“Sentiment wins in the short term, but fundamentals matter most over more meaningful stretches.

“The ‘why’ and ‘how much’ behind sentiment swings strike us far less important.

“The emotional swing itself is what matters.

“Market fundamentals likely didn’t change on a dime seven days ago, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Thursday’s drop simply put US stocks back at mid-October levels.

Furthermore, the world hasn’t fundamentally changed.

While there is no way to know when this drop will end or how much further it will fall, no drop is permanent.

“Whether the rebound starts in days or weeks, whether it is fast or slow, if you have held on thus far, we think you ought to reap the good that comes with the bad.

“Corrections hurt your long-term returns only if you don’t participate in the rebounds that follow them.

“Selling may feel good at a time like this. But when you remove emotion from the equation, all it does is transform a market decline into an actual portfolio loss, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Another investor who is cheering is one of the smartest investors in the world, Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

He says the stock market rout we’re witnessing today is “good for us.”

“We’re a net buyer of stocks over time, ” he says on CNBC.

“Most people are savers, they should want the market to go down.

“They should want to buy at a lower price.”

Buffett’s comments came as Dow futures were down by about 800 points or 3% on Monday as stocks around the world plunged as the Covid-19 outbreak escalated.

Regarding the coronavirus specifically, Buffett made clear that he is “not a specialist.” And he warns that “a very significant percentage of our businesses one way are affected.”

However, he reiterates that investors should be more focused on the long term, not the short term.

“If you’re buying a business, and that’s what stocks are... you’re gonna own it for 10 or 20 years, ” he says.

“The real question is has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?” the legendary investor asks.

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Location: Americas

Covid-19 reaches the West


https://youtu.be/F_Jq7ItdHtA

Tourists wearing protective masks walks by the Duomo in central Milan on February 27,2020 amid fears over the spread of the novel Coronavirus. - The number of COVID-19 infections in Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe, hits the 400 mark late on February 26, with 12 deaths. (Photo by Miguel MEDINA/ AFP)

But keep cool, negative volatility will likely be followed by positive volatility


The coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak has officially reached Western shores.

Since last week, the virus has spread to Europe, Brazil and the Middle East.

New cases have emerged across Europe.

There have been more than 81,000 people infected with nearly 3,000 deaths so far.

Just the previous Wednesday on Feb 19, stocks in the US were complacently at record highs, never mind that Asian markets were roiling and taking huge hits, thanks to the coronavirus that first took roots in Wuhan, China.

Asia has been battling this disease since January. Markets have been volatile but have since recovered as the number of infections have reduced and governments have been diligent at handling the disease.

It is like the domino effect, with the same reactions, panic and emotions that happened throughout Asia now migrating to the West.

It is almost deja-vu, seeing the fear and market reaction, no doubt the impact to the Dow and S&P 500 has a significantly larger impact.

The Covid-19’s largest impact is the fear it has transmitted with rapid speed.

In the US, stocks fell for a sixth straight day on Thursday, with the S&P 500 price index falling 4.4% and bringing this pullback officially into correction territory. On a six-day basis, the Dow Jones was down 13.4% at 25,766.64.

This plummet followed California governor Gavin Newsom’s revealing on Thursday that the state was monitoring 8,400 people for potential Covid-19 infections.

Adding to the bleak outlook, Goldman Sachs slashed its profit outlook and warned the outbreak could cost Donald Trump his reelection in November.

The MSCI all-country global index has dropped more than 7% over this six-day period. Considering stocks were at record highs the previous Wednesday, this is very harsh and painful.

Why, Tesla was all the hype earlier in February. It was US$901 on Feb 21, and new higher target prices were being touted by analysts, nevermind that the stock still didn’t have a price to earnings ratio.

In the last five days, Tesla’s share price had tumbled more than US$200 or 32.7% as of Thursday to close at US$679.

Don’t panic

For the average investor, panic has likely set in.

Whose confidence level would not be shaken with a 12% decline in the S&P 500 in six trading days?

Now talk of a 20% decline is starting to emerge.

Meanwhile the 10-year US treasury yield dropped below 1.3%, remaining in record-low territory.

The downward spiral in oil also continued with WTI crude toppling 2.71% to trade at US$47.41 per barrel on Thursday. Brent oil hovered at the US$51.42 level. So just barely two months into 2020, it is Covid-19 which has been responsible for crushing markets and dismantling profits across the globe.

Many have already slashed market forecasts for the year.

In the past two market stories featured on StarBizweek, readers would know that Fisher MarketMinder thinks that fears over the virus’ market impact are overdone. It thinks that this is part of a longer-running pattern prevalent throughout this bull market.

“The stock market will do what it does – rise and fall.

“If you’ve got a plan based on your risk tolerance and investment horizon, don’t let fear make you swerve in the wrong direction and lose traction.

“Panic is never a good investment strategy, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

It adds that Covid-19 is grabbing attention because it is new and somewhat novel, but that doesn’t mean its economic effects far outweigh more familiar diseases.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that there were 34,200 deaths in the United States from influenza during the 2018-2019 flu season.

For infections of Covid-19 outside of China, the mortality appears very low.

Furthermore, the people who are dying tend to be the old and immuno-suppressed or otherwise sick.

“Supply chain disruptions as officials work to contain the outbreak probably dent growth temporarily, but markets are efficient and likely pricing in these expectations as companies issue statements.

“Short-term volatility could linger, but patience should pay off, in our view, ” it adds.

As legendary investor Ben Graham once said, stocks are a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.

“Sentiment wins in the short term, but fundamentals matter most over more meaningful stretches.

“The ‘why’ and ‘how much’ behind sentiment swings strike us far less important.

“The emotional swing itself is what matters.

“Market fundamentals likely didn’t change on a dime seven days ago, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Thursday’s drop simply put US stocks back at mid-October levels.

Furthermore, the world hasn’t fundamentally changed.

While there is no way to know when this drop will end or how much further it will fall, no drop is permanent.

“Whether the rebound starts in days or weeks, whether it is fast or slow, if you have held on thus far, we think you ought to reap the good that comes with the bad.

“Corrections hurt your long-term returns only if you don’t participate in the rebounds that follow them.

“Selling may feel good at a time like this. But when you remove emotion from the equation, all it does is transform a market decline into an actual portfolio loss, ” says Fisher MarketMinder.

Another investor who is cheering is one of the smartest investors in the world, Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

He says the stock market rout we’re witnessing today is “good for us.”

“We’re a net buyer of stocks over time, ” he says on CNBC.

“Most people are savers, they should want the market to go down.

“They should want to buy at a lower price.”

Buffett’s comments came as Dow futures were down by about 800 points or 3% on Monday as stocks around the world plunged as the Covid-19 outbreak escalated.

Regarding the coronavirus specifically, Buffett made clear that he is “not a specialist.” And he warns that “a very significant percentage of our businesses one way are affected.”

However, he reiterates that investors should be more focused on the long term, not the short term.

“If you’re buying a business, and that’s what stocks are... you’re gonna own it for 10 or 20 years, ” he says.

“The real question is has the 10-year or 20-year outlook for American businesses changed in the last 24 hours or 48 hours?” the legendary investor asks.

Source link


Read more:

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Location: Europe

Friday, February 28, 2020

Malaysia's economic stimulus package of RM20bil to mitigate Covid-19 impact

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/28/gdp-target-within-reach?jwsource=cl

Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced by 4% from 11% to 7%, with effect from Apr 1 to Dec 31, 2020. This will potentially unlock up to RM10 billion worth of private consumption. Malaysian workers have the option to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate
    KUALA LUMPUR: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had on Thursday unveiled the RM20bil stimulus package to offset the fallout from the Covid-19 coronavirus.

    Below are the highlights:

  • Based on three strategies: counter Covid-19 impact, boost people-based growth, encourage quality investments 

  • • Bank Simpanan Nasional provides RM200mil micro credit at 4% interest rate

  • • MAHB to cut rental for tenants, landing charges and parking fees at airports

  • • Postponement of income tax monthly payment for tourism-related companies

  • • Bank Negara provides RM2bil guaranteed financial aid for SMES at 3.75% interest rate

  • • All banks required to reduce monetary burden in the form of postponement of payments or rescheduling of loans

  • • Temporary six months discount of as much as 15% for electricity bills for hotels, tourism agencies, airlines, and shopping centres

  • • Hotels to get service tax breaks from next month to august

  • • Economic growth for 2020 expected to be between 3.2% and 4.2%

  • • Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced from 11% to 7%, with effect from april 1 to dec 31. This could unlock up to RM10bil worth of private consumption. Malaysian contributors have the choice to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate

  • • A payment of RM200 to all bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH) recipients scheduled for May will be brought forward to March. an additional RM100 will be paid into the bank accounts of all BSH recipients in May. Subsequently, an additional rM50 will be channelled in the form of e-tunai

  • • As a result of the stimulus package, fiscal deficit estimated to increase to 3.4% of GDP from targeted 3.2%

  • • Grants of RM1,000 to RM10,000 for entrepreneurs to promote the sale of their products on e-commerce platforms

  • • Securities Commission and bursa Malaysia will waive listing fees for one year, for companies seeking listing on Leading entrepreneur accelerator Platform (LEAP) or Access, Certainty, Efficiency (ACE) markets, as well as companies with market capitalisation of less than RM500mil seeking listing on the main market

  • • Import duty and sales tax exemption on importation or local purchase of machinery and equipment used in port operations for three years commencing april 1

  • • Enough source of money for now, no issuance of bonds needed

  • • Stimulus package to be funded by RM2 trillion savings from bank Negara, Tabung Haji, EPF

  • • Bureaucratic procedures will be expedited to disburse stimulus

Read more:

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Labels: , , , , , , , ,
Location: Americas

Malaysia's economic stimulus package of RM20bil to mitigate Covid-19 impact

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/02/28/gdp-target-within-reach?jwsource=cl

Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced by 4% from 11% to 7%, with effect from Apr 1 to Dec 31, 2020. This will potentially unlock up to RM10 billion worth of private consumption. Malaysian workers have the option to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate
    KUALA LUMPUR: Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had on Thursday unveiled the RM20bil stimulus package to offset the fallout from the Covid-19 coronavirus.

    Below are the highlights:

  • Based on three strategies: counter Covid-19 impact, boost people-based growth, encourage quality investments 

  • • Bank Simpanan Nasional provides RM200mil micro credit at 4% interest rate

  • • MAHB to cut rental for tenants, landing charges and parking fees at airports

  • • Postponement of income tax monthly payment for tourism-related companies

  • • Bank Negara provides RM2bil guaranteed financial aid for SMES at 3.75% interest rate

  • • All banks required to reduce monetary burden in the form of postponement of payments or rescheduling of loans

  • • Temporary six months discount of as much as 15% for electricity bills for hotels, tourism agencies, airlines, and shopping centres

  • • Hotels to get service tax breaks from next month to august

  • • Economic growth for 2020 expected to be between 3.2% and 4.2%

  • • Minimum EPF contribution by employees to be reduced from 11% to 7%, with effect from april 1 to dec 31. This could unlock up to RM10bil worth of private consumption. Malaysian contributors have the choice to opt out from the scheme and maintain their contribution rate

  • • A payment of RM200 to all bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH) recipients scheduled for May will be brought forward to March. an additional RM100 will be paid into the bank accounts of all BSH recipients in May. Subsequently, an additional rM50 will be channelled in the form of e-tunai

  • • As a result of the stimulus package, fiscal deficit estimated to increase to 3.4% of GDP from targeted 3.2%

  • • Grants of RM1,000 to RM10,000 for entrepreneurs to promote the sale of their products on e-commerce platforms

  • • Securities Commission and bursa Malaysia will waive listing fees for one year, for companies seeking listing on Leading entrepreneur accelerator Platform (LEAP) or Access, Certainty, Efficiency (ACE) markets, as well as companies with market capitalisation of less than RM500mil seeking listing on the main market

  • • Import duty and sales tax exemption on importation or local purchase of machinery and equipment used in port operations for three years commencing april 1

  • • Enough source of money for now, no issuance of bonds needed

  • • Stimulus package to be funded by RM2 trillion savings from bank Negara, Tabung Haji, EPF

  • • Bureaucratic procedures will be expedited to disburse stimulus

Read more:

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Location: Asia
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