Is real estate still a viable investment asset?

 While Malaysia remains a nation of growing young working population, the main challenge with regard to homeownership is the lack of wage growth rather than the lack of affordable products.

In the case of real estate, it has its own merits because it is tangible and with the title of the property under your name, it is physically yours.

FOR the longest time real estate is the preferred investment asset class for many people. There are fond memories when it comes to making the right investment and more so for property owners who have enjoyed capital appreciation or significant rental yield by investing in real estate.

We also frequently hear of stories on how ordinary working and middle-class families successfully provided education for their children through the refinancing or selling of their own real estate assets.

Even in the grander scheme of things, real estate constitutes 7% of the total RM1 trillion in asset under management of our Employees Provident Fund.

How is it that this popular asset class has fallen out of favour with so many investors today?

Whenever I speak to clients on investments and their allocation, I would hear all kinds of unconventional investments schemes (regardless of whether legitimate or not) but at the mention of real estate, they would tell me that the golden days are long over.

It is rather demotivating to hear such comments, especially when I have been involved in this sector for a large part of my professional career while witnessing its heydays.

Economic cycles come around

The study of economics and its application may be subjective at times but there is one single theory that holds true over the course of time – that is the economic cycle.

Every asset class goes through a cycle, including real estate. From boom to bust and boom again, various factors play a part throughout the cycle.

If at all we look deep into the real estate cycle, we would easily realise the trend or pattern through each cycle.

Many decades before, real estate was scarce and buying property was a very expensive affair due to the high interest rates on loans.

In the 1990s, the loan interest rate per annum is close to double digits.

In addition, there are no full flexible or auto balance reduction loan offerings unlike today.

Coupled with very low margin of financing, mortgages are costly becoming the main barriers to homeownership. Then there is the issue of the law on property development which is not as comprehensive as it is today hence from a project commencement to completion, it was largely an unpredictable timeline.

Today, the laws are extensive both in terms of the development process as well as for the protection of property owners.

As a result, we have seen many companies with unrelated expertise or core business in property venture into development.

At last count, there are close to 200 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia which has property development or construction related businesses.

Coupled with the Strata Title Act, landbanks can be unlocked vertically rather than just horizontally unlike how it was before. This contributed to an oversupply.

On demand side, while Malaysia remains a nation with growing young working population, the main challenge towards homeownership is the lack of wage growth rather than the lack of affordable products.

In the residential segment, National Property Information Centre data shows that the unsold units have largely fallen in the past year from 36,863 units worth Rm22.79bil at the end of 2021 compared with 27,746 units worth Rm18.41bil as of December 2022.

There are also substantial number of units of residential overhang in the country with units totaling 14,000 units worth Rm4.63bil (which is 53% of total unsold inventories) within the affordable price range of less than RM500,000.

This means the stagnant wage growth in the face of global inflation has seen the people’s purchasing power weaken.

When disposable income falls, debt level rises, naturally big-ticket purchases with long term monthly commitment fall on the back burner.

Accommodative measures and policies

Real estate cycle is highly susceptible to changes in economic policies and government regulations including tax regimes.

When there is an accommodative policy such as a low interest rate environment or in Malaysia’s case when Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) was allowed, it spurred huge demand for real estate because holding on to cash has little value.

Funds would either move into equity markets or real estate markets and other instruments to generate yield.

When the policies started to tighten with higher interest rates making borrowing cost higher, or removal of DIBS and even imposing higher Real Property Gains Tax amongst others, there was a flight of capital from the real estate sector.

We are now beginning to see some ray of lights at the end of the tunnel following eight years of market oversupply since the peak in 2014.

The flood of newly completed projects and unsold inventories in the balance sheet of developers which naturally became a bane for the industry is seeing some improvement following the auto correction in the economy cycle due to two years lost to the pandemic.

In addition, higher raw material costs, inflationary pressure and the diminishing value of our currency has slowly helped the market adjust to the property price as what was once deemed expensive becomes more tenable. This will help with the rejuvenation of the real estate market with the exception for commercial office segment.

Hedge against inflation

When we talk about investment, we need to consider the underlying assets’ ability to hedge against inflation apart from its absolute return.

Ultimately, so long as the underlying asset over a duration of time can beat inflation and preserve the value of your money, that would make it a viable investment asset.

Apart from that, it is important to make comparisons across asset classes to determine what best suits your personal need.

Everyone has their own risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Subject to your individual preference, one should choose the asset class that one is most comfortable with. Some may find insurance products pragmatic, some may prefer to invest in safe-haven commodities like gold or silver, others may prefer equities or bonds.

In the case of real estate, it has its own merits because it is tangible and with the title of the property under your name, it is physically yours. This makes it a highly acceptable asset class to most people including some who are not particularly financially astute or do not fancy complex capital markets products.

Any time is a good time for own use

No doubt when it comes to investing, everyone wants to make money. Otherwise, it defies the objective of investment.

If investments do not reap returns, might as well leave the money in fixed deposit.

However, real estate is a one of-a-kind asset class that has tangible benefits and allows enjoyment of the assets with the benefits of investment value.

Unlike gold or silver, the enjoyment is limited to seeing it glitter in your safe deposit or alternatively, melting it to design custom jewelry.

For real estate, specifically residential, one can move in and reside in it while for commercial or industrial properties, one can use it for business purposes.

This makes the investment thesis in real estate different from other asset class such as equities or fixed income.

The benefit of tangible use and enjoyment makes the timing of investment less significant if one has actual use for it.

Quoting Li Ka-shing, if you are looking to buy property for your own stay and not for speculation purposes, anytime is a good time. 

Ng ZHU HANN Ng zhu Hann is the CEO of tradeview Capital. He is also a lawyer and the author of Once Upon a time in Bursa. the views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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A mediator in Russia's war with Ukraine, China's Xi holds call with Zelenskyy

#Ukraine #Zelensky #Xi Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky by telephone on Wednesday for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fulfilling a longstanding goal of Kyiv which had publicly sought such talks for months. Zelensky immediately signalled the importance of the chance to open closer relations with Russia's most powerful friend, naming a former cabinet minister as Ukraine's new ambassador to Beijing. #Ukraine #Xi #Zelensky

We won’t sit by or seek to profit from war, Ukraine leader told

KYIV/BEIJING: Chinese president Xi Jinping spoke to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy by telephone for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fulfilling a longstanding goal of Kyiv which had publicly sought such talks for months.

Zelenskyy immediately signalled the importance of the chance to open closer relations with Russia’s most powerful friend, naming a former cabinet minister as Ukraine’s new ambassador to Beijing.

Describing the hour-long phone call as “long and meaningful”, Zelenskyy tweeted: “I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations.”

Xi told Zelenskyy that China would send special representatives to Ukraine and hold talks with all parties seeking peace, Chinese state media reported.

Xi, the most powerful world leader to have refrained from denouncing Russia’s invasion, made a state visit to Moscow last month. Since February, he has promoted a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, greeted sceptically by the West but cautiously welcomed by Kyiv.

China will focus on promoting peace talks, and make efforts for a ceasefire as soon as possible, Xi told Zelenskyy, according to the Chinese state media reports.

“As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a responsible country, we will neither sit idly by, nor pour oil on fire, still less seek to profit from it,” Xi said.

In a readout of the call on Telegram messenger, Zelenskyy said the two leaders discussed “possible cooperation to establish a just and sustainable peace for Ukraine”.

The White House welcomed the call, which it said it had no advanced knowledge of, but said it was too soon to tell whether it would lead to a peace deal.

“That’s a good thing,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said. “Now, whether that’s going to lead to some sort of meaningful peace movement, or plan, I don’t think we know that.”

France also welcomed the call, with President Emmanuel Macron’s office saying the French leader had pushed Xi to hold this call with Zelenskiy during his visit to Beijing this month.

The 14-month war is at a juncture, with Ukraine preparing to launch a counteroffensive in the coming weeks or months following a Russian winter offensive that made only incremental advances despite the bloodiest fighting so far.

There are no peace talks in sight, with Kyiv demanding Russia withdraw its troops and Moscow insisting Ukraine must recognise its claims to have annexed seized territory. 

 

Beijing's role as peacemaker gains stature

 

Beijing's role as peacemaker gains stature

Xi, Zelenskyy talk on ties, Ukraine crisis on phone

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a phone call on Wednesday at the invitation of the latter, during which the two leaders exchanged views on China-Ukraine relations and the Ukraine crisis. Chinese analysts said that China is now likely to get more involved on the diplomatic front to contribute to a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, and the role that China could play has been sincerely welcomed by both Kiev and Moscow, despite some voices from the West, especially the US, that have tried to distort China's mediation efforts. 

Xi says dialogue only viable way out for Ukraine crisis

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The special representative of the Chinese government to Ukraine will be someone who is familiar with relevant affairs and can play a positive role in promoting peace talks, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Thursday, one day after Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy talked on the phone discussing bilateral ties and the Ukraine crisis.

 

Get booster to evade new variant: the Arcturus subvariant, Support for masking again !

 New COVID variant causing itchy, watery eyes

WHO monitoring new Covid-19 Arcturus subvariant detected in over 20 countries | THE BIG STORY

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

PETALING JAYA: Health experts have advised the public to take precaution amid confirmation that the Arcturus viral subvariant has been detected in the country.

Professor in Public Health Medicine and Health Economy in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Dr Sharifa Ezat Wan Puteh said although the SARS-CoV-2 XBB.1.16 (Arcturus) viral subvariant is highly infectious, nothing pointed to it being more dangerous than other Omicron variants currently in circulation.

“It is advisable for people to get a booster shot if they have not received one and wear a face mask whenever in crowded spaces,” she said, adding the government will soon be offering Bivalent vaccines which are especially effective for Omicron variants.

Prof Sharifa said symptoms of the Arcturus subvariant included itchy or sticky eyes, as well as high fever and cough – particularly among children.

“The Arcturus subvariant is highly infectious because it is difficult to be traced by our antibodies and because of that, it can cause people who already had Covid-19 in the past to be reinfected.

“This will cause an increase in Covid-19 cases in time to come, and the World Health Organisation has classified the Arcturus subvariant as a ‘variant of interest’ (VOI) that will be under careful observation,” she added.

Public Health Medicine Specialist Datuk Dr Zainal Ariffin Omar said the subvariant was fairly new and not much details was known about it so far.

“It is predicted to be more infectious and may cause a rise in cases, but regardless, people should be vigilant and follow the SOP including masking up and getting a booster shot,” he said.

Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health in Universiti Malaya Prof Dr Moy Foong Ming said Arcturus was the dominant variant in India and causing a new wave but added that cases were mostly with mild symptoms.

“According to WHO, while this variant seems to be spreading faster and escapes immunity, it does not seem to be causing more severe illness in individuals or in the population infected with Arcturus.

“However, even though it is not more lethal than other Omicron subvariants, we should take it seriously as it may cause severe illness to vulnerable groups,” she said.

Prof Moy said whether a variant will cause a wave in a country depended on the immunity of the population as well as the variant which was last dominant there.

“The public should practice TRIIS: Test, Report, Inform, Isolate and Seek medical help if infected.

“Those who do not have their vaccination up to date and have not taken a booster dose should do so as soon as possible,” she said.

On Monday, Health Minister Dr Zaliha Mustafa said a total of 12 cases involving the Arcturus viral subvariant had been detected in the country.

Six cases were detected in Sarawak, four in Selangor and two in Kuala Lumpur, she said.

The XBB.1.16 subvariant was first detected in the country in March, but the minister said the situation was under control and that health facilities were not under any pressure. 

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Important to mark DNA Day, crucial for discovery of the genome’s sequenc

 

photo: afp relaxnews

EVERY year on April 25, the global scientific community unite to celebrate DNA Day, marking the momentous completion of the human genome project in 2003 and the discovery of the double helix in 1953.

On April 25, 1953, James Watson, Francis Crick, Maurice Wilkins, Rosalind Franklin and colleagues published papers in the journal Nature on the structure of DNA. By commemorating DNA Day, scientists and enthusiasts seek to emphasise the significance of DNA research and inspire future generations to pursue advancements in genetics.

DNA is like a recipe book for living things; it stores vital information that is passed down from one generation to the next. The information is stored in the form of genes that determine the characteristics of an organism, and is protected and held in place by chromosomes. In humans, the genome is made up of approximately three billion base pairs of DNA. Studying the genome and its variations can therefore provide insights into the causes of genetic disorders and help researchers develop new treatments.

DNA holds significant potential in the fields of medicine, anthropology and forensics. In forensics, DNA is frequently used to determine the guilt or innocence of suspects as well as to identify unknown deceased individuals, by analysing DNA collected from hair, skin or blood samples. DNA can also be used to trace a person’s ancestry and determine their ancestral homeland.

In medicine, genetic testing can identify mutations in a person’s DNA that increase his/her risk of developing certain diseases, such as breast or ovarian cancer. DNA sequencing can also help doctors develop personalised treatment plans for patients with cancer or other diseases by identifying specific genetic mutations driving the disease’s growth. In some cases, DNA testing can also diagnose rare genetic diseases that might be difficult to identify otherwise.

Additionally, newborns can be screened for certain genetic conditions that may not be apparent at birth, allowing for early interventions or treatments that can improve outcomes for them.

Precision medicine is an advanced approach that considers the individual characteristics of each patient, in particular their genetic profile. This approach has the potential to revolutionise scientific and medical progress and improve the health of families by providing doctors with the resources to identify specific treatments for various illnesses.

Historically, most medical therapy development has focused on the “average patient” using a “one-size-fits-all” approach to treatment. While this may be beneficial for some individuals, it can be completely ineffective for others. With precision medicine, doctors can develop tailored treatments that are customised to a patient’s specific needs, leading to more effective and personalised care.

That’s why it’s so crucial for us to have a full picture of the human genome, and why the discovery of the genome’s sequence was welcomed by academics and doctors everywhere.

As our knowledge of DNA and the information it encodes grows, we may one day live in a society with fewer and better-managed diseases, longer lifespans, and individualised medical care rather than mass-produced pharmaceuticals designed for the general population.

- PROF ZILFALIL ALWI, ABDUL HALIM FIKRI HASHIM and NOR RAFIDA MOHD SENI Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kelantan

Prof Zilfalil heads the Malaysian Node of the Human Variome Project and is also Unesco Chair in Human Genetics on Thalassaemia, a programme that involves over 850 institutions across 117 countries. 

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Malaysian Scientist in Tsinghua leads space stem cell research at top varsity , one giant leap for Malaysia

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Malaysian Scientist in Tsinghua leads space stem cell research at top varsity, one giant leap for Malaysia

 

Prof Dr Kee Keh Hooi from the School of Medicine, Tsinghua University in Beijing.

  

https://www.med.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/info/1352/1446.htm

Malaysian Scientist in Tsinghua

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Did you know that China is doing stem cell experiments in space? Get to know more about China's space explorations in this episode.

Guest: Prof Dr Kee Keh Kooi (Scientist, Tsinghua University)

Kampung boy leads space stem cell research at top varsity 

KUALA LUMPUR: It may seem like a galaxy far, far away when human beings from earth can stay for a long period of time in a spacecraft or even on the moon or Mars, but Malaysian scientist Prof Dr Kee Keh Kooi is already doing research on its effects on human bodies.

The Tsinghua University lecturer is heading a team to study how gravity and even radiation affect the development of human embryonic stem cells in space.

In short, understanding how human reproduction will affect human beings who will spend a long time in space.

The research is also to find answers as to how the human embryonic stem can differentiate in space.

“It is already happening as Chinese astronauts could stay for a period of time in a station on the moon, astronauts could orbit around the earth, and even ordinary people could travel to space,’’ he said.

The Sitiawan-born renowned academician was interviewed online from Beijing by Star Media Group adviser Datuk Seri Wong Chun Wai on his webcast programme @realchunwai on Thursday.

His accomplishment was highlighted by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim when he spoke at Tsinghua University during an official visit to China last month.

China recently announced its readiness to start its lunar base on the moon within five years, ahead of landing astronauts there in subsequent years.

Dr Kee has also conducted his research via China’s first cargo spacecraft, Tianzhou-1, which was launched in 2017.

Its main task was to deliver fuel and supplies to the orbiting Tiangong 2 space lab, but it also played host to ground-breaking scientific experiments conducted remotely by earth-based scientists in China.

Dr Kee specialises in stem cell research and how it can be cultured for medical technologies to help patients suffering from Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases and even spinal cord injuries.

Besides devoting his time in laboratories, he also lectures undergraduate and post-graduate students at Tsinghua, which is regarded as China’s top university.

He spent decades in the United States, where he obtained bachelor’s and master’s degrees at Iowa State University. This was followed by a PhD at Weill Cornell University.

Later, he worked at the University of California, San Francisco, before taking up a three-year stint as a research associate at Stanford University.

The opportunity for him to take a leading role as a principal researcher came when he applied for a post at Tsinghua University after seeing a vacancy advertised in an academic journal in 2009.

“There was an opening for stem cell research at the university, and it caught my interest immediately,’’ he said.

Asked about the differences in the manner in which research is conducted in China and the United States, Dr Kee said that in the United States, individual research was common, while in China, a team of between 50 and 100 people could be involved in a big project.

Despite having spent over 12 years in Beijing, Dr Kee, who grew up in Johor Baru, makes it a point to visit Malaysia annually, especially during Chinese New Year.

His parents, who moved to Johor Baru from Sitiawan to run a coffee shop, are still operating at the premises in Gelang Patah.

Dr Kee is a former student of Foon Yew High School, one of the elite independent schools in Johor.

“Balik kampung is always on my mind. The minute China reopened its border, I took my family home to Malaysia for three weeks,” he said.

Dr Kee, who was born in Kampung Remis, a small fishing village, described himself as a kampung boy. His family, he said, is “a simple Teochew family”.

Dr Kee said he would be happy to conduct talks on his work at Malaysian universities if there are opportunities.

His advice to Malaysians who wish to study at Tsinghua or Peking University is simply to study hard, get good grades and be focused.

However, he added that there are many other universities in China besides these top two.

He said Tsinghua also offers other disciplines, especially at the post-graduate level in economics, architecture, and law, which are conducted in English for international students.

To watch the full interview with Dr Kee, follow @realchuwai on Facebook and YouTube. 

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Ending the dollar dominance as USA Weaponising global money

 

 

Dedol­lar­ise move: a file pic­ture of us bank­notes. Eco­nom­ists say there are incent­ives to move away from using the green­back as the primary cur­rency for trade set­tle­ment and reserves. — afp

THE US-dollar dominance as the anchor of the international financial system is being challenged on several fronts simultaneously – and ever more intensely – in recent months.

From several countries opting to conduct trade in their local currencies, instead of using the US dollars to the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa seeking to develop a new common currency for the economic bloc, the risk of the mighty greenback being dethroned appears serious.

As some economists say, it is no longer a question of “if” the US dollar’s dominance will crack, but “when”. Is this a good thing for small and open economies like Malaysia?

According to economists, there are incentives to move away from using the US dollar as the primary currency for trade settlement and reserves.

Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist and social finance head Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid points out that the high dependence on the US dollar will make the global economy highly susceptible to changes in the US monetary policy.

The move to dedollarise will not only reduce financial-market volatility caused by US monetary conditions, but it can also help reduce costs, he says. 

  

Afz­an­izam: Hedging is cost to busi­nesses and investors. there­fore, the incent­ives to do away with the us dol­lar is high.

Afzanizam explains: “Any change in the US monetary policy will affect the global financial market. This is a problem, as it can sometimes create excessive volatility in foreign-exchange markets.”

“Because of this, companies and investors have to hedge their exposure to mitigate currency risks. Hedging is cost to businesses and investors. Therefore, the incentives to do away with the US dollar is high,” he says. 

 Afzanizam tells Starbizweek if there were currencies that could provide better alternatives in terms of stability and predictability, dedollarisation would certainly gain further traction.

According to Sunway University economics professor Yeah Kim Leng, dedollarisation, that results in improved global economic and financial stability leading to increased trade and investment flows, will be beneficial to small and open economies like Malaysia. 

  

Yeah: the yuan is expec­ted to see a rising role as one of sev­eral altern­at­ives.

“As a trading nation, pragmatic and nimble government and company-level policies and strategies are vital to cope with the potential fallouts and opportunities arising from dedollarisation that may or may not lead to a more stable and progressive global economic order,” he explains.

Cost and benefit

Malaysia is seen to be moving towards dedollarisation. Early this month, the country reached a deal with India, one of its major trading partners, to settle trade in Indian rupees instead of the US dollar.

In addition, Malaysia revived the idea of setting up an Asian Monetary Fund (AMF), proposing to initiate discussions on the matter with China, which is reportedly open to the idea.

These small steps are part of an ongoing global shift away from US dollar dependence.

Socio-economic Research Centre executive director Lee Heng Guie says there are potential costs and challenges during the transition process. 

 

Lee: the wide and deep us dol­lar fluc­tu­ations could impact trade, invest­ment and cap­ital flows.

 

“Malaysia may face heightened exchange rate volatility if the dedollarisation is disorderly and abrupt, causing a plunge in the US dollar against major foreign currencies. The wide and deep US dollar fluctuations could impact trade, investment and capital flows,” the economist explains.

For example, a sharp appreciation of the ringgit against the US dollar could lower the cost of servicing Malaysia’s Us-dollardenominated debt, but it could dampen the country’s export competitiveness and lower exchange rate translation gains in domestic currency for the export-oriented industries such as palm oil, rubber products and crude petroleum.

“Portfolio investors may undertake portfolio adjustment in anticipation of the dedollarisation. This could induce assets price fluctuations in the debt and equities markets as investors stay on the sidelines, while assessing the potential risks and costs associated with a disorderly transition of the dedollarisation,” Lee says. 

Regardless of the transition costs and risks, Malaysia has to continue strengthen its domestic financial markets, enhance policy credibility, and foster regional and multilateral cooperation in the provision of liquidity arrangement.

“The development of deep and liquid domestic financial markets is a prerequisite for buffering against the impact of dedollarisation,” he says.

Meanwhile, Malaysia University of Science and Technology economics professor Geoffrey Williams sees two basic scenarios pertaining to dedollarisation. 

Wil­li­ams: the use of the us dol­lar will slowly decrease.

 “The first is that the use of the US dollar will slowly decrease, as more countries settle trade and investment in bilateral currencies. This will continue as BRICS and smaller countries get onboard.

“The second scenario is that there will be a tipping point where the US dollar will quickly lose reserve currency status as happened to pound sterling after World War II. There are many possible triggers of this, but they are very speculative and involve a major crisis,” he adds.

Williams says the United States will defend the dollar and so long as the dollar is used for oil, metals and commodity trades as well as intergovernmental settlement of debt, it will retain its role.

Gradual transition for stability

It is estimated that the US dollar accounts for 88% of global trades, based on Bureau for International Settlements’ triennial central bank survey 2022.

As it stands, central banks around the world still hold significant amounts of US dollars in their reserves. An estimate by the International Monetary Fund implied that the greenback accounted for about 60% of global foreign exchange reserves as at end2022.

Nevertheless, economists expect the numbers to be on a declining trend, as countries are diversifying away from the US dollar. The dedollarisation process, however, will likely be gradual to minimise disruption to global financial systems and markets.

As Afzanizam puts it, any abrupt transition to other currencies can create uneasiness and uncertainties among businesses and investors.

Therefore, allowing ample time would facilitate the changes and reduce the inevitable market volatility, he says.

The enormous and deep US debt markets have been touted as a major factor for the continuing dominance of the US dollar in global financial markets, according to Yeah. 

 Therefore, as countries diversify their reserve currencies and reduce dependence on the US dollar, one could expect global financial markets to face higher volatility and uncertainty, he says.

On Malaysia’s effort to wean off US dollar dependence, Yeah points out that it will be a gradual process.

“This will be in line with global shifts in international trade, capital flows and financial markets, whereby the process is driven by market forces and factors such as transaction costs, riskiness, accessibility and convenience,” he says.

As a start, Malaysia can consider trading its oil and other natural resources in local currencies with countries with which it has bilateral agreements, says HELP University economist Paolo Casadio.

Further, he notes, Malaysia can have a meaningful and impactful transition towards less reliance on US dollar by coordinating its effort with other economic blocs, such as BRICS, to set up a new system.

“There are long-term benefits for Malaysia as well as for all the other developing countries in eliminating the (US dollar) monopoly,” Casadio says, pointing to a more stable and equitable exchange rate as an example.

Asian fund proposal

On the setting up of the AMF, Williams says while it is a feasible strategy to reduce reliance on the US dollar, such a move will require “buy-in” across many countries in the region. In particular, pertinent issues such as who will to provide the finance, and securing consensus on the terms on which access to that finance is made available, have to be ironed out.

“It is not just a financial issue, but geopolitical too,” he stresses.

“The main issue is who will fund it, and what will be the contribution rates for each member. It is likely that most will come from China, unless Japan and South Korea join in. Otherwise, most Asian countries are too small to contribute much,” he adds.

Williams says new arrangements, such as the 12-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-pacific Partnership, of which Malaysia is a part, are indications of ongoing shifts in global economic arrangements away from dominance of the United States and other developed economies such as the European Union (EU).

“Moving to bilateral currencies for trade and investment is feasible, but more at risk to exchange fluctuations and liquidity issues. So, it would be a move to multiple currency options, not just one,” he says.

He notes before US or Eu-based systems such as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, could be replaced, there has to be a viable and reliable alternative for interbank transfers and e-payments.

“Although the systems are contestable and replaceable by new and local providers, the truth is that only stable, reliable and secure financial systems will survive. The US dollar still provides this,” Williams argues.

Importantly, for Malaysia as a small country, it should go with the flow and remain neutral in the shifting geopolitical dynamics, while trade and debt, in whatever currency is best, he says.

Potential alternatives

Amid the ongoing currency shift, China’s yuan, is increasingly seen a potential alternative to the US dollar. This is by virtue of China being the second-largest economy in the world after the United States. However, the country’s strict capital controls are a hindrance.

“As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s yuan is expected to see a rising role as one of several alternatives, including the euro, to the US dollar. Countries trading with China are already increasingly using yuan for payments and settlements,” Yeah says.

“Its internationalisation, however, is being constrained by strict capital controls and lack of liquidity for international transactions outside of China,” he adds.

Concurring with Yeah, Afzanizam says, for the yuan to play an even greater role as an alternative international currency, China’s capital account has to be more open, allowing free flow of funds to allow greater flexibility, especially in terms of the supply of yuan.

Casadio, on the other hand, argues there is no alternative to the US dollar in the prevailing system.

Rather, a “gold-backed system of currencies that constitutes an alternative” is a more viable option, this will provide an equitable system of exchange rates and a stable international financial system, he explains.

“There is a clear shift, at the international level, towards a system in which the dollar has no more monopolistic power as the international currency. The system that is going to emerge from this will limit monopolies and excess financing deficits, thanks to it being anchored to gold,” says Casadio.

Charles Schwab Corp says that there aren’t any viable reserve-currency alternatives to the US dollar.

“A reserve currency needs to be freely convertible and have deep and liquid bond markets to be considered safe for foreign central banks to hold. Central banks need to know that their money is easily and readily available when needed, particularly in times of stress.

“The United States, with a large, open, and liquid market for Treasury securities, fits that role,” the investment bank explains in its commentary.

“That’s why when the Covid crisis hit the global economy, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) expanded its swap lines with foreign central banks to enable access to dollars for countries that were struggling to access dollars for trade and debt payments. While other major countries’ markets have these qualities, the size and openness of the US market is difficult to match,” it adds.

Depreciating dollar

In the meantime, the US dollar is expected to weaken further against most currencies through the year on anticipation of slower interest rate hikes by the Fed.

The greenback has already been on a declining trend over the past few months. This is evidenced by the downtrend of the US dollar index - a gauge of its performance against a basket of major currencies - with the DXY falling to around 100 to 102 points from its multi-year high of 114 to 115 points in September 2022.

From the Malaysian perspective, the ringgit has been volatile against the greenback.

The local note is trading RM4.43 against the US dollar. This is an improvement from RM4.75 in early November last year, but a poorer position from RM4.24 at end-january this year.

With the expected weakening of the US dollar, the ringgit is forecast to strengthen to RM4.15-RM4.25 towards the second half of this year, says Dr Yeah.

“The US economy is anticipated to weaken significantly in the second half and that could warrant unwinding the high interest rates,” he explains.

Similarly bearish on the greenback, Afzanizam says he expects the ringgit to strengthen to RM4.20 against the US dollar by the end of 2023.

“The expectation of slower rate increase in the United States and the potential cut in the federal fund rate could lead to a weaker US dollar,” he explains.

Although on a decline, the US dollar’s dominance is expected to persist due to the absence of a viable alternative.

“The pace of its decline, however, could accelerate if US economic growth sputters, fiscal and debt woes mount and high inflation and interest rates destabilise its banking system.

“Continuing US economic instability coupled with the government’s penchant to apply sanctions for geopolitical reasons will also motivate the rest of the world to band together to find a viable alternative while reducing dependence on the dollar for trade, financing and foreign reserves,” he adds. 

  Source link

 

Beijing takes the yuan global in bid to repel a weaponised ...

 

China takes the yuan global in bid to repel a weaponized ...

 

China takes the yuan global in a bid to repel a weaponised ...

Operational challenges in move away from the greenback

 

Death of the dollar

The United States' way of weaponising the dollar to control global trade is losing ground and more and more countries are shying away from using the greenback. — Reuters

Weaponising global money 

The US dollar system will be dominant for a while yet, but the more the dollar is weaponised in terms of sanctions, the more users will want to dedollarise. — Reuters

 https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/04/22/weaponising-global-money

 

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