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Monday, June 26, 2023

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Overview:

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Wednesday, June 21, 2023

UK loses its allure and faces big investment gap


 

Big job: Sunak greets Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson outside Number 10 Downing Street. The survey underscores the challenge Sunak’s government has in reviving economic growth with a labour force that has shrunk since the pandemic. — Reuters

 

LONDON: The United Kingdom (UK) has fallen six places in the global economic competitiveness rankings because business leaders have lost confidence in the country, due in part to “government incompetence”.

The annual World Competitiveness Ranking from the International Institute for Management Development saw the UK plunge from 23rd to 29th out of 64 countries.

In a separate analysis, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) warned that years of underinvestment are holding back growth and harming ambitions to build up green industries.

It estimated the nation would have received an extra £560bil (US$720bil or RM3.3 trillion) in real terms had investment from private firms and the government stayed at the Group of Seven average since 2005.

“The UK is experiencing a debilitating case of investment phobia, and the government’s aversion to investing to seize future opportunities is stopping us from getting out of the growth doom loop we find ourselves in,” said George Dibb, associate director for the economy at IPPR.

The figures underscore the challenge Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s government has in reviving economic growth with a labour force that has shrunk since the pandemic.

Political leaders from all parties are concerned about the UK’s stagnating productivity and sticky levels of inflation, which have undermined the confidence of investors both in stocks and in businesses.

In the competitiveness rank, the UK lost ground on all the key indicators, which is a worrying sign for the government, which wants to attract investment to boost growth.

Respondents said the country had become more bureaucratic, the government less efficient, and the workforce less productive.

Denmark held on to the top spot in 2023, and Ireland jumped nine places to second. Switzerland, the Netherlands and Singapore completed the top five.

“The dramatic drop in the survey indicators suggests a systemic pessimism about the future,” Arturo Bris, lead researcher on the rankings and director of the IMD World Competitiveness Centre, said in an interview. “The deterioration in business sentiment says executives are losing confidence in the country.”

More than 6,400 senior executives from across the world were interviewed for the report. Just 3% of respondents said the competency of the government made the UK an attractive destination for investment.

“Government incompetence, poor workplace culture, and restrictive immigration laws were among several reasons why the UK fared badly,” the report said.

The report also found that the UK is becoming increasingly bureaucratic, despite the government’s pledge to use “Brexit freedoms” to cut regulation. The UK fell 12 places in the bureaucracy sub-ranking from 15th to 27th, while France climbed from 44th to 41st, Bris said.

France remained less attractive than the UK, dropping five places to 33rd in the rankings. Germany fell seven places to 22nd.

The survey was conducted between February and May but reflected the political chaos of 2022, a year in which the UK got through three prime ministers and four chancellors.

The struggling economy, with inflation higher and the labour market tighter than other leading industrial nations, will have also affected sentiment badly, Bris said. — Bloomberg

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How Indian media fabricates think tanks, journalists to churn out anti-China, Pakistan news



A reporter holds a microphone with the logo of ANI during a press conference in India, on March 3, 2023. Photo: VCG 

 

Source: EU DisinfoLab report.Graphic: Global Times

 

A recent report by a European organization investigating fake narratives of Indian media went viral on Chinese social media platforms recently, drawing wide attention to India's supposedly vast smear campaign against China and Pakistan.

Following reports in 2019 and 2020, the latest investigation report by independent non-profit organization EU DisinfoLab, published in February 2023, exposes more details and evidences to prove that Asian News International (ANI), an Indian news agency, has been quoting a number of non-existent organizations, journalists and bloggers to spread disinformation that attacks and smears China and Pakistan. The report further uncovered that India has long been building a huge anti-China and anti-Pakistan disinformation network and that Indian media outlets have built a sophisticated assembly line of fake anti-China and anti-Pakistan news.

On the one hand, the Indian media produces and spreads false narratives about China, and the Indian government restricts Chinese journalists' access to India and deny their rights of reporting a real India, by treating Chinese journalists in an unfair and discriminatory manner during their posting in India and visa application process.

Chinese experts said the investigation report exposes a deliberate effort by India or Indian media to shape negative narratives against China and Pakistan. The presence of such disinformation campaign aligns with India's strained relations with both countries. They pointed out that the production of fake news by Indian media can incite nationalist sentiment within the country and distract people from the real problems of the country and the poor performance of its government.

Within the complex geopolitical context of South Asia, such disinformation campaigns can have far-reaching consequences, which can exacerbate tensions, strain diplomatic relations, and hinder regional cooperation efforts, observers warned.

Bad sources


The investigation report titled "Bad Sources - How Indian news agency ANI quoted sources that do not exist," published by EU DisinfoLab, unveils "its latest investigation into anti-Pakistan/China influence operations," according to the organization.

The report said ANI is an Indian news agency that plays a relevant role in the country's information ecosystem, providing content for many well-established media across India, such as The Print and Business Standard. With this network, ANI acts as a purveyor of news to millions of Indians.

In the report, researchers write that ANI has been repeatedly quoting articles and reports issued by a think tank named the International Forum for Rights and Security (IFFRAS). The think tank was previously chaired by Mario Silva, a former Canadian Member of Parliament (MP), and dissolved in 2014, according to public information provided on a Canadian government website.

However, when they checked IFFRAS' official website, the researchers found that it has kept updating information, including articles, news, books and even conferences, and that ANI has kept quoting information from the think tank's website.

For example, on December 27, 2022, IFFRAS published an article titled "Pakistan's persecution of minorities under scanner again," and on the same day, the article was quoted by ANI in a piece of news headlined "Pakistan's ill-treatment of minorities under scanner after UK sanctions Sindhi cleric," with most of the contents coming from the IFFRAS article.

ANI has quoted IFFRAS more than 200 times from May 2021 to January 2023, and "in most instances, it was not only quoting but using the IFFRAS 'reports' as the backbone of the articles," said the report.

News reports produced by ANI quoting IFFRAS can possibly get republished or reported on by other media outlets. For example, in April 14, 2022, an ANI report quoting IFFRAS was reproduced by The Statesman, an Indian daily newspaper, allowing the ANI report to reach a wider audience.

In addition, researchers of EU DisinfoLab further investigated whether the conference attendees at the think tank quoted in the articles actually exist.

To find out who was attending conferences held by IFFRAS, researchers contacted attendees of a session discussing the "Increasing presence of Muslim Brotherhood." But two of the attendees mentioned by IFFRAS responded that they had never attended such a conference and that the Muslim Brotherhood "had nothing (to do) with their field of expertise."

The investigation report also pointed out that more than 70 speakers mentioned in the fake conferences of IFFRAS did not exist at all.

Another interesting finding is that, in contrast to the frequent updates on its website, IFFRAS' Twitter account has not posted any content since 2021. Therefore, the researchers assumed that "the sole purpose of IFFRAS is to produce content that can be covered by ANI and then republished widely throughout the Indian press."

ANI's editor Smita Prakash responded to the report on Twitter on February 24, dubbing it "defamatory and false."

The Global Times has tried to contact ANI through the email address provided on its website, wanting to get a response on whether the news agency was aware that IFFRAS had been disbanded in 2014 and does not exist now. However, as of the publication of this report, there was no response from ANI.

Apart from IFFRAS, the researchers also looked into another think tank frequently quoted by ANI, the Policy Research Group (POREG), in which the researchers found no sign of the existence of three new members who had reportedly joined the group in the last two years.

For example, one of them is James Duglous Crickton, a misspelling of James Douglas Crickton, who wrote an article claiming that former Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf held a secret bank account in Switzerland, which was later covered by ANI.

The researchers said that they have tried to get in touch with the three people through POREG, but have received no response. However, the three people had been quoted by ANI numerous times on topics such as Pakistan's army doctrines and China's "wolf warrior diplomacy," according to the investigation report.

The researchers also tried to get contact with Philippe Jeune, a claimed "Paris-based investigative journo with more than 10 years' experience" and sometimes a claimed "Brussels-based freelance journalist," who was quoted by ANI in a piece of news entitled "European Parliament to withdraw Pakistan's GSP+ status over abuse of blasphemy laws" - a withdrawal that did not happen, and efforts to do so again failed.

Asif Noor, founder of the Friends of BRI Forum, a Pakistan-based think tank, told the Global Times that in the investigation, ANI has been found to quote non-existent organizations, presenting them as credible sources of information. The expert noted that by attributing statements and opinions to these fictional entities, ANI creates a false impression of legitimacy and credibility for the disinformation being spread.

These fabricated figures are used as experts to provide opinions and analysis to further mislead readers and reinforce the false narratives. ANI's articles, containing the disseminated disinformation, are reproduced and shared across various well-established media outlets in India, Asif noted. "This amplification of the false narratives through multiple platforms increases their reach and potential impact, potentially influencing a wider audience and shaping public opinion."

Source: EU DisinfoLab report.Graphic: Global Times

Source: EU DisinfoLab report.Graphic: Global Times


Vast network


The IFFRAS think tank mentioned in the lab report was also found to be linked to the Srivastava Group, as the researchers found that IFFRAS has been registered by using a well-known email address from the Srivastava Group.

The latter is a notorious Indian shell corporation, and the EU DisinfoLab pointed out in its 2020 report that nominally, the group's main business is news media, with offices in Brussels and Geneva, and registrations of more than 750 media, think tanks and more than 550 domain names in 116 countries and regions around the world.

However, the researchers investigated and found that there was no profitable business under the Srivastava Group, and the media and think tanks related to the group basically only had a name but no actual business. For example, the researchers uncovered EU Chronicle, a fake media with fake journalists supposedly covering European affairs, which was actually serving as a platform for Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to sign pro-Indian articles.

In fact, the group is a representative of the disinformation war launched by India against China. Under the lead of the Srivastava Group, which is based overseas in Geneva and Brussels, an information warfare network has been woven, with a number of fake media, think tanks and NGOs all over the world.

The fake news produced by the fake media under the group is also published and reprinted by some Indian media websites such as ANI which increases the reach of the disinformation.

For example, on September 17, 2020, an article was published in the EU Chronicle about a letter sent by several MEPs to the President of the European Council Charles Michel, asking for taking strong actions on China's Human Rights atrocities at the EU-China Summit. The article was titled "Meaningful address and strong action needed against China's human rights atrocities." In its coverage of the news, ANI changed the headline as "Members of the European Parliament urge EU to take strong action on China for Human Rights Violation." But then the coverage of ANI was distorted by the Srivastava Group's other fake media, which ran it under the headline: "EU to take strong action on China."

In the end, a simple request by individual MEPs, who are free to send any letter they want to send, was ultimately presented as an official position of the EU on China.

Represented by the EU Chronicle, fake media of India published a large number of discrediting articles on China and Pakistan in an attempt to damage the reputation of the countries internationally and win more support for India from institutions such as the EU and UN.

In addition, according to the lab's investigation, under India's vast network of fake narratives, many organizations created by the group are active in cities which host headquarters of international organizations, such as Geneva, Brussels and New York. These organizations include "South Asia Peace Forum," the "Baloch Forum" and "Friends of Gilgit-Baltistan."

In order to increase the official element and credibility of their organizations, they even paid some MEPs to make pro-India, anti-Pakistan and anti-China remarks, and organized trips for MEPs to Kashmir, Bangladesh and the Maldives. The researchers noted that "some of these trips led to much institutional controversy, as the delegations of MEPs were often presented as official EU delegations when they were in fact not travelling on behalf of the Parliament."

Responsible dissemination of accurate and verified information is crucial in fostering informed public discourse and upholding journalistic ethics, Asif noted. But India lacks the ability and is using it in favor of its own motivations, the expert said.

Beautify image


Experts noted that China and Pakistan have long been targets of India's disinformation campaign.

Topics related to the China-India border region, including the China-India border issue and China's border negotiation with Bhutan, are a major focus of the India's fabrication and smearing on China.

In addition, discrediting China's Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and smearing on China's policies in Xinjiang and Xizang regions in terms of ethnic, religious, human rights and other issues are also the top agenda items set by some forces in India in the disinformation war against China, Sun Xihui, an associate research fellow with the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.

With the help of these fake reports, the Indian media not only discredit China, but also try to raise the image of its own government in its community. By building the image of China with social chaos and oppression of people domestically, and deceiving internationally, the India media aimed to beautify India's image of democracy at home and friendship with its neighbors internationally, Sun noted.

The international community's perception of Pakistan and China may be swayed by the misinformation disseminated by India, affecting how these nations are viewed in terms of their policies, actions, and intentions. This can lead to biased judgments and misconceptions about Pakistan and China's contributions to regional and global affairs, Asif said.

To counter false narrative campaigns of India, experts noted that there should be a multifaceted approach involving various strategies. "It is important that China and Pakistan should promote media literacy to educate the public about identifying and evaluating misinformation and disinformation," Asif said.

"Citizens should also utilize social media platforms, official websites, and other digital channels to directly communicate with global audiences," said the expert.

Gary Machado, managing director of EU DisinfoLab, said he thought the muted reaction to the revelation of the disinformation network was partly because it was "clearly managed by Indian stakeholders."

"Imagine if the same operation was run by China or Russia. How do you think the world would have reacted? Probably with international outrage, leading to public inquiries and probably sanctions," he told BBC in an interview in December 2022. 

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Tuesday, June 20, 2023

China, US reach consensus




Face to face: Blinken (second left) meets with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi (second from right) at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. — AP

 

BEIJING: China and the United States announced an agreement to jointly implement the consensus reached at the meeting between President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in Bali, Indonesia, in November, and “effectively control differences and promote dialogue, exchanges and cooperation”.

The agreement was reached at the talks between State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang and visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Analysts said the meeting on Sunday was the latest positive move for repairing the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

The ties have remarkable bilateral and global implications and mutual respect remains the key to managing differences, they said.

Blinken arrived in Beijing on Sunday morning for his first visit to China as secretary of state.

“The two sides had candid, in-depth and constructive talks at length on the overall bilateral ties and important issues,” the Foreign Ministry said in a release.

The two sides also exchanged views on major international and regional issues of common concern.

Qin’s meeting with Blinken was the first of its kind between the two in their current capacities.

At the talks, Beijing and Washington agreed to maintain high-level exchanges.

Blinken invited Qin to visit the US, and Qin expressed his willingness to visit the US “at a mutually convenient time”.

The two sides agreed to encourage the expansion of cultural and education exchanges between the two countries and to actively discuss an increase in passenger flights between the nations.

They both will welcome more students, scholars and businesspeople to visit one another, and will provide support and convenience.

Speaking to Blinken on Sunday, Qin said that “currently, China-US relations are at the lowest point since the establishment of the diplomatic relations”, which is not in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples and the common expectations of the international community.

The two sides should fully implement the consensus of the meeting between Xi and Biden in Bali, and “work to stabilise and steer the relations back to the right track”, he said. — China Daily/ANN

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Inflation woes polarise young Koreans’ spending habits amid dwindling middle class

A screenshot of an open chat room named ‘Geojibang’ on KakaoTalk where users check each other’s spending habits. — The Korea Herald/Asia News Network


The frugal type: Lunch at convenience store, bike rides and thrift shops


FOR every penny he spends that could have been saved, Kang Won-jin (not his real name) gets scolded online.

When he confessed to a spontaneous purchase of a 10,000 won (RM35.70) umbrella from a convenience store because of an unforeseen rain, he was told “No Starbucks for a week.”

Some remarked half-jokingly, “You should have used flyers or newspapers to cover your head.”

He willingly shares his daily expenses with them and embraces their nitpicking. It is his way of keeping his belt tightened.

The 25-year-old is part of an online community of young Koreans practicing frugal living via chatrooms called “geojibang,” which literally translates to “the beggars’ room.”

There, pseudonymous users check each other’s daily expenses and share saving tips and information on hot deals, including promotional events at local convenience stores or low-priced phone plans.

A search for “geojibang” on KakaoTalk’s open group chat section, returned more than 500 rooms, with diverse membership requirements based on gender or age.

One group, made up of about 360 job seekers in their 20s, had a slogan “extreme saving and meaningful spending.” Its rules stated that users are banned from posting pictures of “extravagant items” to prevent impulse buying.

Among the tips shared and widely encouraged by its seasoned members was to use public bikes instead of taking the bus or subway. Ordering food via delivery platforms is considered virtually sinful.

The influence of this new frugality can be found in various data.

According to NHN Data, apps for local low-priced coffee brands, convenience store chains and group buying platforms posted sharp growth in terms of the number of downloads during the first half of the year.

For instance, among the eight most popular shopping apps, five are for big discount deals, including Always, Tteorimall and Miss Discount, which recorded 115%, 65% and 24% growth in downloads, respectively, compared with October last year.

Sales of boxed lunches at the nation’s four major convenience stores during the first quarter soared 40% from a year earlier, industry data showed, despite restrictions on restaurant dining remaining in place during the period in 2022.

Runaway inflation, a sluggish economy, and a persistent slump in the job market collectively drive young people toward adopting a frugal lifestyle, but there’s more. Social media and online communication platforms are amplifying personal resolutions into a broader social trend, experts said.

“The presence of others reinforces a person’s will and performance on a task, known as the social facilitation effect,” explained Kwak Geum-joo, a professor of psychology at Seoul National University.

“Keeping habits of thrift is a challenging task, so people have created fun ways of doing it together. Geojibang incorporates elements of anonymity, real-time updates and communication, making frugality something fun and enjoyable,” Kwak said.

The extravagant type: high-end omakase, pricey desserts and exotic holidays


ON the opposite end of the spectrum, there are young Koreans who engage in conspicuous extravagance, whether or not it aligns with their means.

In Korean omakase restaurants – a high-end dining experience at restaurants where the chef offers one dish at a time – it is common to find young couples on a date. — 123rf.com 

In Korean omakase restaurants – a high-end dining experience at restaurants where the chef offers one dish at a time – it is common to find young couples on a date. — 123rf.com

One of the most popular trends among big spenders is “omakase,” a traditional Japanese dining style where guests leave their menu choices up to a chef.

Literally meaning “I will leave it to you” in Japanese, omakase in Korea usually refers to a high-end dining experience at restaurants where the chef offers one dish at a time and introduces its name, ingredients and origin. An omakase-style dinner course is normally priced between 200,000-300,000 won (RM723-RM1,085) per person.

While in Japan guests at such establishments are typically affluent middle-aged individuals, in Korean omakase restaurants it is more common to find young couples on a date.

The number of diners specialising in omakase surged to 413 in January this year from about 100 in 2021, according to data from the Korea Foodservice Industry Research Institute.

Some people visit luxury hotels to indulge in expensive desserts.

Every summer, major luxury hotels introduce high-priced bingsu (shaved ice flakes) made with fresh fruits in season, priced at between 70,000-80,000 won (RM253-RM289) on average. No matter how expensive, there are always people who opt for a premium dessert experience.

On a recent Tuesday afternoon at a five-star hotel’s lounge for coffee, desserts or casual meals, visitors in twos and threes were helping themselves to apple mango bingsu priced at 126,000 won per plate.

“It is made up of high-end ingredients and tastes so good. Since it’s a seasonal menu item, I think it’s a price worth paying,” said a diner who wished to remain anonymous.

Some young Koreans love to visit luxury hotels to indulge in expensive desserts. — The Korea Herald/Asia News Network 

Some young Koreans love to visit luxury hotels to indulge in expensive desserts. — The Korea Herald/Asia News Network

For holidays and long weekends, these big spenders would hop on planes to exotic destinations, joining the post-Covid-19 travel rush.

According to data from the Korean e-commerce company Interpark, its sales of plane tickets amounted to 173.1 billion won (RM626.3mil) in April, up 144% on-year.

Kim Hyung-nam, who recently came back from a holiday in Osaka, Japan, said he was surprised to see so many young Koreans visiting the city. “Honestly, it almost felt as if I never left Korea.”

“For my next vacation, I am going somewhere far away.”

Local experts say the “shrinking middle class” is behind the current trend of polarised consumption.

“The impact of an economic downturn does not affect everyone equally, but rather tends to concentrate more on the low and middle-class households.

“As more middle-income families have fallen into the low-income class amid higher prices and declining real incomes, it appears that the culture of saving and frugality became more widespread than before,” said Kim Kwang-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Korean Economy and Industry.

“High earners who are less vulnerable to a decrease in net income will continue their existing consumption habits such as overseas travel and purchase of luxury goods, which further exacerbates the polarisation of consumption.” — The Korea Herald/Asia News Network 

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Sunday, June 18, 2023

PN-PAS MP Says Nurses’ Attire Are ‘Too Tight’, Gets Bashed Over Remarks By Medical Circle

 

Pn mp says nurses' attire are 'too tight', gets bashed over remarks by medical circle | weirdkaya

The topic of attire has long been a debatable issue in Malaysia, where clothes that are deemed to show too much skin or don’t reach a certain length are labelled as ‘sexy’ or ‘revealing’.

Recently, it was brought back into the spotlight again after a Perikatan Nasional (PN) MP told Parliament today that he felt the uniform of nurses were “too tight”.

 PN MP says nurses’ attire are ‘too tight’

During a Parliamentary debate session over the Public Health White Paper yesterday (June 15), Kuantan MP Wan Razali Wan Nor said that the current attire for nurses were too tight and don’t comply with Syariah requirements.

Most of them are wearing tight clothes and the shape of their bodies can be seen, which is not syariah-compliant. I would like to ask whether we are going to keep following the Western mould on the dress code for nurses?

He also cited Kelantan’s Hospital USM Kubang Kerian and Pahang’s Sultan Ahmad Shah Medical Centre as examples of how nurses were given alternative attires to change into.

  Kuantan mp wan razali wan nor

Screenshot via FB/Wan Razali Wan Nor,
Kuantan mp wan razali wan nor Screenshot via FB/Wan Razali Wan Nor


“I wish to ask whether can it be changed and given leeway, as displayed by several healthcare facilities where their female staff are given alternatives to dress more suitably,” he said as quoted by Malay Mail.

Medical circle decry remarks


Wan Razali’s comments were not widely received by those in the medical circle, who roundly criticised him for it.

The Malaysian Medical Association (MMA) said it was ashamed to see the MP showing more concern towards nurses’ attire rather than issues currently plaguing the healthcare system.

Malayan Nurses Union president Nor Hayati Abd Rashid concurred, telling FMT that the uniform was designed to be functional and to ease nurses in carrying out their duties.

Pn mp says nurses' attire are 'too tight', gets bashed over remarks by medical circle | weirdkayaPhoto via Berita Harian


The rules for the uniforms are that they cannot be too tight and the (length of the top) must be below the buttocks. There is a guideline.

“It is up to the nursing supervisor to look out for this. Normally, the sisters or matrons will advise nurses if their uniforms are too tight,” she said.

Nor Hayati added that the uniform has been worn for years and wondered what was the cause for Wan Razali’s remarks. Malaysia has seen a fair share of people being subjected to attire policing in recent months, with some being downright ridiculous:

M’sian Woman Not Allowed To Enter Gombak Police Station Over ‘Improper’ Attire

A woman who wanted to lodge a report at the Gombak police station was preventing from stepping into the premises after she was told her attire was ‘improper’. This is the latest incident where individuals were barred from entering public or government premises for allegedly wearing attire which violated the dress code. Barred from 

M’sian Woman Barred From Entering Kuantan Hospital Over Knee-Length Pants

In yet another bizarre case of attire policing, a woman was barred from entering a hospital in Kuantan for wearing a pair of knee-length pants. A video of the incident soon found its way to Twitter, where it has since elicited strong condemnation from netizens. Barred from entering hospital over knee-length pants In the 15-second … Continue 

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Time to nurse that sick obsession

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Saturday, June 17, 2023

Decline and fall of empires

 

In the last decade, the US security elites seized power from Wall Street for greedily selling out American hegemonic interests. — Bloomberg

 

You can say that there is no clash of civilisations, but rather a clash of national praetorian guards who feel that their interests are being threatened, sometimes not just by foreign intrusion but also weak leaders who betray their interests.


EVERY empire has its grand historian to explain more its successes than failures. In 1776, when Adam Smith published his classic “Wealth of Nations”, British essayist Edward Gibbon (1737 to 1794) wrote an equally famous text, “History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”.

The year 1776 was a historical turning point, when Britain lost her American colonies, even as she focused on conquering India 19 years after the 1757 victorious Battle of Plassey against the Mogul empire and their French allies.

Gibbon attributed the Roman fall to “four principle causes of the ruin of Rome, which continued to operate in a period of more than a thousand years. (I) The injuries of time and nature. (II) The hostile attacks of the Barbarians and the Christians. (III) The use and abuse of the materials. And (IV) The domestic quarrels of the Romans.”

His warnings apply even today, even though he was reminding the rising British elites what to look out for in the bid for Empire.

Interestingly, Chinese historians attribute dynastic decline and fall to “external invasion and internal troubles” .

Rome was built on conquest. Her Roman legions were legendary, but the elite core that defended consuls, procurators and emperors were the Praetorian Guard, who exercised the intelligence, logistics and national security functions of the Roman empire.

The Roman empire rose as the effectiveness of Roman military discipline and organisation overwhelmed all enemies.

The Praetorian Guard was the core staff between the consul, like Julius Caesar, and his legions.

They also supervised the intelligence functions, initially undertaken by the Frumentarii, involved in strategy, logistics, information couriers and negotiations with allies and enemies alike.

Within Rome, as the elite defending the capital, the Guardians later became king-makers, since weak emperors needed the military on their side.

They helped in assassination of at least one emperor and putting several others on the throne.

Fast forward to the First World War.

Amidst Europe’ ruinous self-destruction, German polymath Oscar Spengler (1880 to 1936) wrote The Decline of the West, positing that empires or civilisations have the same human biological cycle of birth, life and death.

He famously speculated that the West would enter into a crisis after two centuries of Caesarinspired concentration of power into one leader would lead to collapse of Western civilisation.

Indeed, he warned that the spread of Western technology to the “coloured races” would be used against the West. Sounds familiar? Spengler was discredited after the Second World War for being an inspiration behind Nazi expansion.

Thereafter, British historian Arnold Toynbee (1889 to 1975) 12-volume Studies in History gave Spengler fatalism an optimistic twist.

His study of 26 civilisations showed that empires can rise to historical challenges when their elites respond creatively with innovation and technology.

In other words, those elites, including emperors, presidents or political leaders who are guardians of empire integrity, can succeed to grow empires.

But when that elite becomes predatory through corruption and infighting, the empire or civilisation weakens and falls to a combination of internal collapse and foreign invasion.

Every nation has their own praetorian guard or cohort of agencies in defence, national security, intelligence and think tanks that safeguard the national interest.

A modern parallel would be the Washington blob (national security elite) that comprises the Pentagon, State Department, intelligence community and foreign affairs think tanks.

Former US President Eisenhower called it the “military industrial complex”.

Moscow’s praetorian guard is labelled the Kremlin.

Countries like China, Russia, India, France and Japan have their own praetorian elite, who consider their mission to safeguard national integrity against all enemies, including threats to their national identity, creed and values.

You can say that there is no clash of civilisations, but rather a clash of national praetorian guards who feel that their interests are being threatened, sometimes not just by foreign intrusion but also weak leaders who betray their interests.

In the last decade, the US security elites seized power from Wall Street for greedily selling out American hegemonic interests.

As chairman Mao said, “political power comes from the barrel of a gun”, meaning that those who have the military behind them beat those who don’t.

Hence, stable governments are those that are able to keep the military in their barracks.

Those who do not keep the military happy are vulnerable to coup d’etat.

But what if the praetorian guards’ interests are not aligned with those of the masses, who only want peace and stability, including better jobs, health and less government intervention?

In this age of confusion and distorted media, the masses are rightly worried whether their praetorian guards are looking after their interests or after their own?

This is reflected in recent serious loss of public trust in elites, which feeds the populist desire to have one of their own to oversee the elites.

Donald Trump has pitched himself in that populist category.

The more the blob tries to prevent him from returning as Presidential candidate, including his recent indictment, the more Trump’s supporters will hunker down in their belief that the praetorian elites are looking after their own skin.

Ancient history therefore tells us that empires decline if their elites are feeding at the trough at the expense of the masses.

They sometimes start wars to deflect anger against them towards anger against barbarians.

Are there parallels in the current age? 

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