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Sunday, March 19, 2023

EPF - Keeping it safe and sound

 

 
 

The 5.35% dividend announced last year would have ranked the EPF 22nd in terms of return. — Bloomberg

Rate of return from the retirement fund well above domestic headline inflation rate

RECENTLY, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), the nation’s largest pension fund, declared a dividend rate of 5.35% for conventional savings for 2022.

This was a lower sum compared with 2021’s 6.1%. Over the course of a decade, EPF dividends for conventional savings had ranged from a low of 5.2% in 2020, to a high of 6.9% in 2017.

The perennial question has been just how does the dividend by the EPF compare with individual asset class funds like unit trust which allows investors to gain bigger exposure in their investments by diversifying their asset holdings.

Whitman Independent Advisors founder and managing director Yap Ming Hui says while some unit trusts can provide investors with a higher return than EPF ranging from 15% to 20%, the fund volatility is also high where unit trusts’ returns can fall as much as 30% to 40% in a short time.

“There are many types of unit trusts, namely the equity unit trust, fixed income unit trust, and money market unit trust. If you have a long term view on the investment, say 10 to 15 years, then equity unit trust would have better returns than the EPF.

“Generally, the returns for equity investments are higher than fixed income assets like bonds. Hence, the rate of return and risk levels are dependent on the type of unit trusts that you buy into,” he told

For 2022, EPF’S total gross investment income came in nearly 20% lower year-on-year (y-o-y) at Rm55.3bil compared with Rm68.9bil in 2021 due to the vagaries of the capital markets at home and abroad.

Foreign investment contributed 45% of the EPF’S total gross investment income and made up about 36% of the EPF’S investment assets.

In terms of asset allocation, 47% of EPF’S investment assets were in fixed income instruments in 2022, while equities made up 42%.

Real estate and infrastructure as well as money market instruments took up a 7% and 4% stake in EPF assets, respectively.

Last year, Rm30.5bil, or 55% of the EPF’S total gross income derived from the equities asset class. This was a 26% y-o-y decline from the Rm41.1bil recorded in 2021. Foreign listed equities were the main driver for this asset class, registering a return on investment (ROI) of 9.3%.

The premier retirement savings fund has nearly half of its total asset allocation in fixed income instruments which includes Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and equivalents along with loans and bonds. This portfolio contributed an Note: List of unit trusts launched prior to 2018 Returns in the calendar year 2022. Source: Novagni Analytics graphics income of Rm18.2bil, or 33% of the EPF’S total gross income.

Moreover, the real estate and infrastructure portfolio recorded an income of Rm5.6bil with an ROI of 10.5%, whereas gains from money market instruments stood at Rm1bil with an ROI of 3.5% in 2022.

The EPF dividend when compared with the list of 681 unit trusts generally has performed well.

With the exception of 2019 and 2020, the dividend paid by the EPF in 2018 and 2021 puts the retirement fund dividend in the top 25% of the unit trust industry.

The 5.35% dividend announced last year would have ranked the EPF 22nd in terms of return. The same could be said when EPF returns are pitted against the other 108 mixed assets (balanced funds) in the country.

The year 2018 was EPF’S best performing year as its returns were the highest when compared with balanced funds. Apart from 2019 and 2020, the dividends issued by EPF were in the top 20% of the balanced fund market. Last year, EPF ranked eighth for its return rate.

- The Star Malaysia18 Mar 2023By elim POON elimpoon@thestar.com.my 

 

EPF a more stable investment option than unit trusts

Financial Planning Association of Malaysia chief executive officer Linnet Lee states the EPF is a more stable investment option than unit trusts as it has a track record for its return rate.

“As soon as a person takes his or her money out of the EPF or their bank account, this person must understand that there are risks already, namely market risks, interest rates fluctuation, and currency exchange risks for funds that have overseas investments.

“The EPF has lower risk levels as it is obligated to provide a minimum dividend rate of 2.5%, as outlined in the EPF Act 1991, even if market conditions do not look good. For the last 10 years, the EPF’S dividend rate has always been above this level,” she says.

Despite the bearish and volatile markets last year that led to EPF’S lower gross investment income performance, the EPF’S return rate in 2022 outmatched many unit trusts and financial market’s performance.

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index for instance, recorded a 17.7% decline in its 2022 performance while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 19.74% last year.

On the other hand the FBM KLCI shed 72 points or 4.6% y-o-y in 2022, with a high of 1,618.5 and a low of 1,373.4 for the year.

The rate of return from the retirement fund was also well above the domestic headline inflation rate averaging at 3.3% last year as well as the return on the 10-year MGS which yielded 4.07% at the end of 2022.

However, some may argue that unit trusts offer greater flexibility in terms of investment and contributions, as investors are exposed to different investment themes matched with their risk appetite.

The common investment products offered by unit trusts are money market, fixed incomes, property, and equities.

On this note, Tradeview Capital Sdn Bhd portfolio manager Ng Tzyy Loon says while this may be the case, many individuals do not have time to do the necessary research before buying an investment like unit trust.

“For these investors, the EPF is a very convenient tool which often becomes their default choice. It is actually not an easy feat for EPF to be able to deliver a consistent return of 5% to 6% over the years, given that the fund size the organisation is managing is about RM1 trillion,” he says.

In choosing the right unit trust, Ng opines that investors should opt for one that has a more flexible mandate and outperforms its investment benchmarks.

“Investors need to have the mindset that they are taking risks to get a better return when they opt for unit trusts instead of the EPF. A unit trust with a flexible mandate means that the fund manager has more room to make investment decisions in different market conditions.

“For example, fund managers can avoid gold mining companies in an equity unit trust, unlike in a commodity unit trust, should prices of precious metals fluctuate in a particular year.

“Additionally, a unit trust that has consistently outperformed its investment benchmark is reflective of the skillfulness of the fund manager in managing the fund,” he says.

Nevertheless, as Yap pointed out, investors need to take into account the various fees and expenses, which can potentially reduce returns, accompanying a unit trust fund. There are altogether three main fees when buying a unit trust; sales charge, fund management fee, and trustee fee.

“Sales charge are front end fees that can go as high as 5.5%. There is also the fund management fee of about 1% to 2%. Lastly, investors are also charged with a trustee fee of less than 1%,” he says.

While it seems that there are no outright fee charges for EPF members, the returns received by account holders is net expenses.

“All the expenses incurred from hiring analysts, fund managers, and compliance-related are reflected in the income statement. These fees can be lower that that of unit trusts” says Ng.

All in all, having a well-diversified portfolio is the key to protect one’s wealth, notes Lee.

“If you are looking to build a retirement nest egg, you need to diversify your money into different asset classes. Hence, it would be good to make contributions in the EPF and at the same time invest in unit trust funds,” she says. 

 - The Star Malaysia18 Mar 2023 

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Saturday, March 18, 2023

SVB meltdown exposes risks of fragile US bank system, highlights need to strictly maintain the bottom line of low risks

It is crucial to improve the financial regulatory system and strictly maintain the bottom line of low risks, China’s former finance minister said at a forum on Saturday in commenting on the recent collapse of the US Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that sent shockwaves across the US banking system.

The SVB bankruptcy suggests that financial markets have been hit by monetary policy changes, Lou Jiwei, director general of the Global Asset Management Forum and China’s former finance minister, said at the ongoing annual session of the forum, according to media reports.

The unconventional monetary and fiscal policies adopted by some countries during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to high leverage ratios across governments, households, enterprises, and financial institutions. These ratios rose quickly but would not fall easily, Lou said.

It has exacerbated the hikes of the inflation and its impact has been extended to the global financial market, with soaring volatility in stocks, bonds, foreign exchange markets, Lou said, noting that from a historical perspective, it may lead to a new round of crisis spilling over into emerging markets.

As the US 16th largest lender, SVB faced meltdown on March 10 after a 48-hour run on deposits. It marked the largest bank crash since the 2008 financial crisis. When many were still pondering whether it was another Lehman Moment that started the global financial crisis over a decade ago, the US 29th biggest lender Signature Bank closed by regulator just two days after the SVB collapse.

The unexpected bank failure has soon sent shockwaves across the US banking system, with jitters spreading across the global market.

NASDAQ Bank index, which contains securities of NASDAQ-listed banks, dropped 22 percent from 3981.59 on March 8 to 3100.16 on March 17. The First Republic Bank saw its share price plummeted from $115 to $23.03 during the period, down nearly 80 percent.

In Europe, alarms sounded at Credit Suisse, a 167-year-old Swiss bank which is also the 17th largest lender across Europe. Its share price has lost 30 percent since March 8. Although the bank secured a $54 billion loan from Swiss central bank to shore up its liquidity, its investor sentiment remains fragile.

The bank failure and emergency showed that the long-simmering profound financial risks in Europe and the US have reached a critical point of periodic outbreak, Dong Shaopeng, a senior research fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Saturday.

Banks are professional risk managers, and if they cannot manage risk effectively, then it means that the risk control system has failed, Dong said.

SVB is not the only risk point, a total of 186 US banks have reportedly been exposed to similar risks. “Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors, with potentially $300 billions of insured deposits at risk,” read an analysis conducted by New York-based Social Science Research Network.

Counting on its advantages as the world’s dominant financial power, US policymakers have believed that they could reap interests of others to plug their own loopholes. It is such “financial confidence” which has supported them to adopt a radical quantitative easing and then a drastic tapering policy, Dong said.

Yet, a considerable number of emerging countries are attaching more importance to financial risk management and firmly safeguarding their own autonomy, Dong said.

China has attached great importance to preventing and defusing systemic risks, and it is further improving its financial regulation including setting up a central commission for finance following the two sessions to optimize and adjust setting and functions of regulatory institutions, Lou said.

Lou said that China will continue to cooperate with other countries in financial regulation to jointly forestall and defuse systemic risks in the global financial system and maintain stability and prosperity of the global financial market.

The People’s Bank of China (PBC), the nation’s central bank, recently stressed the overall financial market is running smoothly and risks are under control. Large banks with excellent ratings are the “ballast stone” of China’s financial system. Reforms of a few problematic small and medium-sized financial institutions have achieved important progress, and illegal financial activities have been effectively curtailed, it said.

Amid a steep drop in the value of global banking shares following the SVB meltdown, however, Chinese banking shares rallied collectively. The Bank of China saw its share price surged from 3.33 yuan ($0.48) on March 8 to 3.48 yuan on March 17, reaching a five-year high.

The Chinese economy has contributed more than 30 percent of global growth annually for the past two decades, and this momentum will continue in the future, Yang Delong, chief economist at Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund Management Co, told the Global Times on Saturday.

Under such circumstances, China’s strong enterprises, robust core assets will remain very attractive to foreign investment, Yang said, predicting that it is highly likely that the inflow to China’s A-share market from overseas investor will exceed 300 billion yuan this year. 

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Friday, March 17, 2023

US’ hooligan nature laid bare in forced divesting of TikTok

 

  Forcing TikTok to sell its shares is a shameless ... -


There has been an absurd development of the political farce surrounding the crackdown on TikTok, which has recently been playing out in the US and spreading to Canada and some EU countries.

The Biden administration has threatened to ban TikTok if its Chinese owners don't divest their stakes in the popular video app, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Even though TikTok has tried its best and done almost everything possible within the technical range in response to the so-called national security concerns, it remains helpless in the face of Washington's economic vandalism. The message is clear: if Washington cannot see TikTok ending up in an American hand, it will shut it down. Judging by the various bans and legislation involving TikTok that US politicians have been working on, it is not impossible for the worst to happen.

Yet, the Emperor's New Clothes surrounding national security concerns cannot hide US politicians' selfish and hooligan nature. The US claims that TikTok threatens to undermine US national security, but there is no evidence at all supporting the killing or robbery of such a globally successful app on national security grounds. The fact that Washington can suppress and even rob TikTok without justification and only because it is owned by a Chinese company is the latest manifestation that in order to maintain the US hegemony, Washington can make any rogue behavior that is against the law and business rules. This could serve as a wake-up call to companies around the world about the political risks of doing business in the US. If they are successful enough to pose a real challenge to American business titans, a rogue government in Washington will start finding fault with them.

TikTok has been seeking various technical solutions to soothe the so-called national security concerns. For instance, it has committed to spend $1.5 billion on a plan known as "Project Texas," which would enact a stronger firewall between TikTok and employees of its Beijing parent company. It has also built what it called a Transparency Center in Los Angeles to help legislators and journalists understand how it safeguards data and how its algorithms work.

But what has happened to the company has laid bare that there is no way to play by the rules to address the US politicians' so-called concerns. This is because it is not national security issues, but TikTok's ability to challenge the supremacy of the US internet industry, that is what really upsets Washington.

With more than 1 billion active users, TikTok is the most downloaded Chinese app in the world last year. The US has 113 million active TikTok users aged 18 and above, and a 2022 Pew Research Center survey of American teenagers aged 13 to 17 found that 67 percent say they use the app, which would add up to about 17.4 million teenagers.

By comparison, the development of some American internet giants has been overshadowed. Facebook-parent Meta Platforms announced on Tuesday it would cut 10,000 jobs this year, marking a second round of mass layoffs following the first one in fall 2022. Since 2020, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has spoken out on several occasions about TikTok's threat to American values and technological dominance.

Of course, the US government's crackdown on Chinese technology companies has not only aimed to rob economic interests off Chinese companies, but also to curb China's high-tech development and to maintain the US technological and financial hegemony.

However, it should be noted that the fact that Washington cannot allow a Chinese company to have the potential to beat American internet giants in market competition doesn't mean China will allow its hegemony to rob Chinese companies of core technology. Behind TikTok's success is the rise of a new algorithmic technology, which is the representative of Chinese high-tech companies gaining an advantage in international markets.

When the former Trump administration tried to push through a forced sale of TikTok in 2020, China's Ministry of Commerce already made adjustment to its catalog of technologies that are subject to export bans or restrictions, which includes certain advanced information process algorithms. It goes without saying China will resist any bully-like robbery of Chinese companies' core technologies. 

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Global Civilization Initiative proposed by Xi 'provides hope to heal the world in turbulence' – another gift from China to world

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Chinese president, attends the CPC in Dialogue with World Political Parties High-Level Meeting via video link and delivers a keynote address in Beijing, capital of China, on March 15, 2023. Photo: Xinhua

 Global Civilization Initiative proposed by Xi 'provides hope to heal the world in turbulence'

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Chinese president, proposed the Global Civilization Initiative. Experts said following the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, China is trying to share its wisdom and plans to bring new hope for all nations to consider together on how to escape the trap of the "Clash of Civilizations" and find a path that can help the world sail through the current turbulence.

Xi proposed the initiative during his  key note speech on Wednesday at the opening ceremony of the CPC in Dialogue with World Political Parties High-Level Meeting via video link and delivered a keynote address.

Under the initiative, Xi called for respect for diversity of civilizations, advocating the common values of humanity, highly valuing the inheritance and innovation of civilizations, and jointly advocating robust international people-to-people exchanges and cooperation.

"We are ready to work together with the international community to open up a new prospect of enhanced exchanges and understanding among different peoples and better interactions and integration of diversified cultures. Together we can make the garden of world civilizations colorful and vibrant," Xi said.

World needs hope

According to a Xinhua News Agency story on Thursday, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, also president of the African National Congress, and 11 other leaders of political parties and political organizations also addressed the dialogue on Wednesday.

They spoke highly of Xi's proposals in his keynote speech, and expressed their willingness to work with the CPC to play a leading and driving role in the modernization process.

"We fully agree with the four proposals put forward by Chinese President Xi in the Global Civilization Initiative," Ramaphosa said, noting the initiative is vital to the world today.

The event, with the theme "Path towards Modernization: the Responsibility of Political Parties," brought together more than 500 leaders of political parties and political organizations from more than 150 countries.

Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times on Thursday that the Global Civilization Initiative will help the world get rid of the old mentality for relations between different civilizations, and create a new landscape for the world which allows all countries to deal with each other based on stability, mutual respect and equality.

Experts said a very fundamental reason why the world at present is experiencing great turbulence is that the old international order dominated by the US-led West is making the world fall into the trap of "Clash of Civilizations," with many countries with different civilizations having a hard time to deal with each other peacefully.

Li said that within the US, people from different ethnic groups and with different religious beliefs are having more tensions rather than becoming more united. For the foreign affairs, during the time of the Trump administration, US senior officials openly hyped "Clash of Civilizations" and currently Washington is still having tensions with many countries with different civilizations, and even instigating conflicts between the countries in the same region with similar civilization.

At present, the old system and order dominated by the US-led West is causing huge problems and dangers to the world in the fields like geopolitics, supply and industrial chains, as well as the financial markets.

The Ukraine crisis is still far from easing, and the energy and foods crises are troubling many countries worldwide. At present, the new danger of a potential global financial crisis brought along by the collapse of US-based Silicon Valley Bank and the problem of Credit Suisse in Europe has made the world more unstable.

Liu Dian, an associate research fellow of the China Institute under Fudan University, told the Global Times on Thursday that in recent years, the world has been facing rising challenges and uncertainties.

"It's just about 15 years away from the financial crisis in 2008, the world is once again under the shadow of another crisis caused by the US," Liu noted. "The world is getting increasingly worried about the old system and getting more desperate to ask for new solution."

Contribute with action

From the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative to the latest Global Civilization Initiative, China has presented the world with an ideological system that gets increasingly mature. Adding to the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the ideal of the global community of shared future, China is trying to use its own wisdom, experiences and influence based on its own successful development and exploration in the past decades to help the world improve and reform the old problematic international system and order, experts said.

Liu said that the series of initiatives proposed by the top leader of the CPC and China are answering the questions for the world and our time. The combination of these three initiatives shows China's comprehensive thoughts that aim to solve global problems and improve global governance.

China is not just proposing the initiatives, but also making contribution through actions, and gain concrete achievements, analysts said. For instance, the successful mediation that lead to the resumption of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the BRI that links countries with different civilizations to jointly realize development.

The vast majority of the international community welcomes and praises the latest reestablishment of Riyadh-Teheran diplomatic ties with China's support and assistance. This shows that the world in turbulence and regions in chaos desperately need new hope and new solution for peace and stability. China is actively utilizing its influence and wisdom to solve global challenges, as a result, more and more countries will be open to and carefully consider and research China's initiatives, Liu said. 

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Global Civilization Initiative – another gift from China to world: Global Times editorial

 

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Chinese president, proposed the Global Civilization Initiative when he delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the CPC in Dialogue with World Political Parties High-Level Meeting on Wednesday. This is the third major global initiative presented by China after the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative. It fundamentally answers a series of questions of the times, such as "What kind of modernization do we need?" and "How can we achieve modernization?" The initiative has become another important public good provided to the world.

The background of the Global Civilization Initiative is that in recent years, as geopolitical conflicts have intensified, the "clash of civilizations" and "superiority of civilizations" have returned to public attention under the instigation and hype of some politicians in the US and the West. The hatred and estrangement among different civilizations have seriously hindered international cooperation. At the same time, "black swan" and "grey rhino" incidents are occurring frequently in the international community, and multiple challenges and crises are intertwined and superimposed. Different countries and civilizations urgently need to work together to deal with global challenges that affect the future and destiny of mankind as a whole. The Global Civilization Initiative can be said to have emerged in response to the demand of the times, and has strong practical significance and practical value.

The Global Civilization Initiative puts forward four initiatives - respect for diversity of civilizations, advocating the common values of humanity, highly valuing the inheritance and innovation of civilizations, and jointly advocating robust international people-to-people exchanges and cooperation. It covers the basic concepts and principles that different civilizations can tolerate each other and coexist, and has the source of motivation and a practical path for realization. It is a major initiative that is very constructive, operable and sustainable. Since it advocates respect for different civilizations and support for their development rights, it fully meets the strong needs of the international community and has shown strong vitality from the very beginning, arousing enthusiastic responses in the international community.

As abovementioned, after the end of the Cold War, the world entered an era of high globalization, but it has not really experienced peace. The Cold War mentality and practice of demarcating ideological boundaries and engaging in camp confrontation have not disappeared. On the contrary, in recent years it is resurging. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is essentially a remnant of the Cold War detonating a powder keg in the 21st century. In other parts of the world, the practice of distinguishing between friends and foes in the name of "values" and wooing one faction while fighting against another faction casts a huge shadow on world peace and development.

Furthermore, without true equality and inclusion among civilizations, the process of peace and development will always be at risk of being interrupted. There have been too many tragedies in this regard, both historical and current. In this sense, the Global Civilization Initiative is an extension and complement to the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, and together they form the key components of a human community with a shared future.

The world does not need hatred, division or conflict, and the people of all countries want to live a good life. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Communist Party of China has led the Chinese people to create two miracles - rapid economic development and long-term social stability. These are by no means "out of luck." Instead, they have their own profound internal logic. The Global Civilization Initiative, Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative are highly condensed versions of China's past successful experiences, which China is willing to share with the world without reservation to achieve common development through mutual exchange and learning. It can be said that these three initiatives are all high-quality global public goods demonstrating China's sincerity and goodwill.

It should be emphasized that China is not only a "thinker" but also a "doer" in promoting building a human community with a shared future. In the past year or so, the number of countries and international organizations supporting the Global Development Initiative has increased to more than 100; the Group of Friends of the GDI established on the UN platform has expanded to more than 60 members; and platforms such as the Global Development and South-South Cooperation Trust Fund, the Global Development Promotion Center, and the China Global Development Knowledge Network have also been established one after another. Just a few days ago, Saudi Arabia and Iran held a dialogue and reached an agreement in Beijing, which also became a successful practice of the Global Security Initiative. This happened less than a year after the initiative was first proposed.

Thus, there are more reasons to expect that the Global Civilization Initiative, together with the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, will constantly inject stability and bring new hope to this world of turbulence and transformation. At the same time, we also believe that "Chinese modernization, as a new form of human advancement, will draw upon the merits of other civilizations and make the garden of world civilizations more vibrant." 

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