Scammers keep getting bolder and bolder with their extortion methods. From impersonating landlords to illegal debt collection tactics, there is no shortage of ways scammers will try to separate you from your money. Be aware of these five red flags when getting on the phone, checking your email, or using social media. This can help you avoid getting trapped in a conversation with a scammer in the first place.
Whether it’s through email, text, phone calls or direct messages, scams seem to be everywhere on the internet. Not all scams are obvious and
many specifically target small business owners. Learn how to recognize a scam, protect your business and know what to do if you become a victim
of a scam.
Being forearmed with knowledge is key to not falling prey to well-trained scammers
Arm yourself with knowledge to identify a swindler
RIGHT before my eyes, I witnessed my friend falling for a classic Macau scam over the phone.
The call from a “government official” had him hooked. Frantically, I gestured to my friend to end the call but he was like a man possessed.
Someone on the other end of the line, claiming to be a government official, informed my worried friend that he had been implicated in a crime of sorts and the only way to escape the consequences was to transfer his money into a “safe account”.
After 45 minutes on the phone, he sent RM5,000 to one such bank account, and this happened on his pay day!
Recalling the incident, my friend said the caller was so convincing and believable that it was hard to cut the line.
This incident came to mind when the long arm of the law finally caught up with Tedy Teow, the founder of MBI (Mobility Beyond Imagination) well-known for its superlative money-making scheme.
He was detained in Thailand about a week ago and is believed to be wanted for questioning over several money-laundering cases in a few countries.
From what I could tell, the news failed to generate much interest on the ground, especially in Penang where the scheme used to have a large number of followers.
It could be that many of his victims were resigned to the fact that their money was as good as gone, even though Teow got arrested.
I have many acquaintances who put money into MBI. A few earned some returns. Most did not.
Now, it is “successful” Macau scams that are dominating the chatter in coffeeshops, offices, watering holes and messaging groups.
Indeed, teachers, engineers, doctors and even a politician were among the prized scalps of these so-called officers from banks or government and law enforcement agencies.
In May, a businessman from Port Dickson with a net worth of over Rm100mil lost a record Rm21mil in one such scam after he allegedly revealed his bank Transaction Authorisation Code (TAC) numbers to a “bank official”.
A sizeable number of scam victims were retirees who lost their hard-earned savings.
As pointed out in one news report, these scammers actually go through a month-long boot camp conducted by professional trainers before they are sent out for con jobs.
Psychology, negotiation skills, the art of persuasion, they learn it all.
They go through gauntlets of role-playing, with one being the “victim” and the other the scam caller, all under the watchful eyes of the trainers.
It has become challenging these days for lawmen to outfox the syndicates which have members even sitting for exams before being certified competent enough to man scam call centres.
And now we hear of increasing cases of dubious bank transfers: money being unknowingly transferred out of savings and fixed deposit accounts after victims were said to have downloaded phone apps.
Protect yourself by not downloading apps from dubious sites!
Then there are the online lovers to whom the lonely give their money even though they have never met face to face.
For those not in the know, this actually happens gradually.
First, the amounts asked for are small. These are quickly returned with a small but appreciable profit. Only after trust is established will the scammer ask for the big amounts.
The situation has never been more urgent as there are still victims who fall prey to such tactics almost on a daily basis.
If you get a call from a scammer, stay calm and rightfully hesitate when asked to reveal your personal banking and user login details.
In the course of a true fraud investigation, government and law enforcement agencies will not transfer calls among themselves. Bank Negara will not transfer your calls to Bukit Aman and vice versa, and never call back the number that was given.
Remember, the police will never threaten to arrest you over the phone; they prefer to do it face to face.
And if it’s a pre-recorded message, just hang up.
Most importantly, if you are a law-abiding citizen who has done nothing wrong, there is indeed nothing to fear.
“We do not anticipate any new dramatic tightening policies, as this would derail the recovery of the property sector.” TA Securities Research
PETALING JAYA: Budget 2022 will likely contain elements that make home ownership and financing more accessible, according to TA Securities Research.
“Following the full reopening of all economic sectors this month, we expect that better market sentiment along with stronger recovery in economic and business activity to contribute to better developers’ sales prospects ahead, which will eventually translate into stronger earnings going forward,” said the research unit.
TA Securities Research maintained its “overweight” rating on the property sector, and said a rerating is justified, considering developers’ encouraging sales growth and attractive valuations.
“We do not anticipate any new dramatic tightening policies, as this would derail the recovery of the property sector,” it said.
Taking a cue from the recently announced 12th Malaysia Plan (12MP), it also opined that Budget 2022 would primarily focus on ensuring adequate, quality, and affordable housing, improving the living standard of poor households and monitoring and evaluating efforts as well as achieving urban sustainability.
It is anticipated that the focus of Budget 2022 would be to ease the burden of the B40 and M40 as their livelihood was largely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Also, Budget 2022 should be primarily helpful to low-to-middle-income earners as well as to first-time home owners.
TA Securities Research is also hopeful for more measures to ease the burden of property owners by extending the real property gains tax (RPGT) exemptions along with lower RPGT rates.
Based on its channel checks, it said property developers’ wish lists and expectations for Budget 2022 include promoting homeownership among the low-to-middle income group, reiterating and broadening existing public housing schemes, making home ownership and financing easier, extending the Home Ownership Campaign to 2022, and a tax relief for mortgage interest.
Property developers are hoped for incentives such as a relaxation of requirements for the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) programme.
Despite the fact that the MM2H programme only accounts for a fraction of the overall number of homebuyers in Malaysia, it can nonetheless contribute to reducing the overhang of unsold properties.
“We note the recent adjustments to the MM2H programme criteria for new applicants could be extremely stringent, discouraging foreigners from settling and working in Malaysia,” said TA Securities Research.
Additional incentives are needed to promote green development in Malaysia and to encourage developers to adopt accredited green certification tools during the construction and operation phases of development projects.
The government should grant additional tax incentives to developers of green-certified buildings, allowing them to claim income tax deductions equal to the additional capital expenditure required to obtain green certification.
On top of that, the government may consider offering stamp duty exemptions to purchasers who acquire properties that have been certified as environmentally friendly in order to stimulate demand.
“This is primarily to address the higher cost of green building construction in comparison to conventional buildings, which may deter potential buyers from making the investment,” said TA Securities Research.
Government Budget in Malaysia increased to -3.20 percent of GDP in 2020 from -3.40 percent of GDP in 2019. source: Ministry of Finance Malaysia
Malaysia Government Budget
Government
Budget is an itemized accounting of the payments received by government
(taxes and other fees) and the payments made by government (purchases
and transfer payments). A budget deficit occurs when an government
spends more money than it takes in. The opposite of a budget deficit is a
budget surplus.
While young adults all over the world are renting homes, successful
Malaysians and Singaporeans prefer to own homes instead of cars, as soon
as they get their first pay cheque.
Instead of blowing their cash on pricey gadgets, young Malaysians are saving up for their first home.
An aid package worth RM150bil has been unveiled to help the people, businesses, as well as those vaccinated under Phase One of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) to curb the spread of Covid-19.
Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said that in a special address on Monday (June 28) and listed a number of initiatives under the package known as the "Pakej Perlindungan Rakyat dan Pemulihan Ekonomi (Pemulih)", where the government will provide a total amount of RM10bil direct fiscal injection.
COVID-19: Malaysia announces new stimulus package
https://youtu.be/kLKHyvL8P4M
Malaysia has announced a new stimulus package, with some assistance targeting small and medium enterprises. It comes a day after an indefinite extension of a nationwide lockdown. But some SMEs are saying it does not go far enough to address their financial woes.
PETALING JAYA: An aid package worth RM150bil has been unveiled to help the people, businesses, as well as those vaccinated under Phase One of the National Recovery Plan (NRP) to curb the spread of Covid-19.
The government will also provide a total amount of RM10bil direct fiscal injection.
In a special address, Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin on Monday (June 28) listed a number of initiatives under the package known as the "Pakej Perlindungan Rakyat dan Pemulihan Ekonomi (Pemulih)".
Here are the highlights:
– The government will add up to RM500 for Bantuan Prihatin Rakyat (BPR) for the month of July with payments to be made from June 29.
The third phase of the BPR between RM100 and RM1,400 will be paid in September as well as payments for those with successful appeals. Altogether, a total of RM4.9bil will be paid out under BPR.
– Government to expand job seekers' allowance to Social Security Organisation (Socso) non-contributors, especially new graduates and informal sectors. They can register at MYFutureJobs and will receive an allowance of at least RM300.
– Bantuan Khas Covid-19 (BKC) initiative for several categories. They are:
i) Households of hardcore poor will receive RM500 in August, RM500 in November, and RM300 in December. Singles from this category will receive RM200 in August and RM300 in November.
ii) B40 households will receive RM500 in August and RM300 in December. Singles from this category will receive RM200 in August.
iii) M40 households will receive RM250 while singles in this category will receive RM100 in August.
The BKC is expected to benefit more than 11 million households and the elderly as well as singles with an allocation of RM4.6bil.
https://dai.ly/x82asz4
– The government will allocate a total amount of RM10mil to implement the food basket initiative, especially for the Orang Asli
– Government to allocate another RM1bil to ensure that the price of 1kg polybags of cooking oil remains at RM2.50,
– RM15mil will be allocated to non-governmental organisations to help social issues such as mental health, homelessness, and others.
– To address the cost of living issue, the government will maintain the retail price for RON95 petrol, diesel and LPG, which is expected to involve subsidies of RM6bil this year.
– The government will also implement a price control programme based on the threshold value of crude palm oil to control the price of 1kg to 5kg of cooking oil bottles.
https://dai.ly/x82at8f
– A discount on electricity bills of between 5% and 40% up to a maximum usage of 900 kilowatt-hours (kWH) a month will be given. This includes a 40% discount for usage that is below 200kWH, and 15% discount for usage that is between 201kWH and 300kWH. All in, the rakyat is expected to save up to RM346mil in electricity bills over three months from July.
– Economic sectors that have been badly hit – particularly hotel operators, theme park operators, convention centres, shopping malls and tour operators – will get a three-month extension of electricity bill discounts of 10% from October to December.
– Telecommunications companies have agreed to extend the 1GB of daily free data until the end of the year. This initiative is estimated to be worth RM500mil and will benefit 44 million registered users in the country.
– Additional RM500 to eligible recipients under the Prihatin Special Grant (GKP) 3.0 initiative, with payment expected to be made by mid-July this year. In total, the government has allocated a total of RM5.1bil via the GKP initiative.
https://dai.ly/x82at1w
– Understanding the struggle of the SMEs, the government announced an additional payment of RM500 under GKP 4.0 to eligible recipients which will be paid in September and another RM500 in November this year.
– The government will allocate RM18mil for local banks to provide about 30 units of mobile banks in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak, which are expected to cover 250 rural localities.
Through this initiative, various banking services including opening of accounts; savings, withdrawal and transfer of money; bill payments as well as digital banking can be accessed.
– Government will continue the Wage Subsidy Scheme for the fourth time with an allocation of RM3.8bil, expected to benefit more than 2.5 million workers. Through this scheme, the government will support up to 500 workers per employer with assistance of RM600 per worker for four months. This will be two months for every sector in the second phase of the National Recovery Plan, and another two months for the sectors categorised as negative in the third phase of the NRP.
There are no salary limit conditions, and this means that employers can apply for the scheme even if their employees earn more than RM4,000 a month.
– Government will automatically exempt payments for the HRD levy for two months to employers who are not able to operate during phase one of the recovery plan.
– Employers from new sectors as a result of the expansion of the Human Resources Development Fund Act 2001 will be given a levy extension under Dec 2021. This initiative is estimated to be worth RM425mil.
– The Government will extend the PenjanaKerjaya programme that is due to end in June with several improvements. This includes reducing the salary eligibility limit from RM1,500 to RM1,200 ringgit for the “Malaysianisation” programme to give more incentives to employers to replace foreign workers with local workers. The employment contract period will also be reduced from 12 months to six months for employees aged 50 and above, the disabled and former prisoners.
https://dai.ly/x82assb
– EPF will introduce a new withdrawal facility called i-Citra where a total of 12.6 million EPF members can make withdrawals of up to RM5,000 with a fixed payment rate of RM1,000 per month for five months, subject to the member's total EPF savings.
This is expected to channel RM30bil to the people for their daily needs. Members can start applying for the facility on the i-Citra online portal at icitra.kwsp.gov.my from July 15, with the first payment expected to be credited to the member's account in August.
– An six-month automatic moratorium for all borrowers, regardless if they are from the B40, M40 or T20 groups. Borrowers will only need to apply and approval will be given automatically by the banks. It will be open from July 7, 2021. They are also required to apply and sign an agreement on the related loan terms.
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Govt launches PEMULIH Package worth RM150 bln, including fiscal injection of RM10 bln
KUALA LUMPUR, June 28 — The government has today launched the National People’s Well-Being and Economic Recovery Package (Pemulih) worth RM150 billion, comprising the government’s direct fiscal injection of RM10 billion, aimed at providing comprehensive assistance to the people and focusing on three main focuses, Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said.
According to him, the three focuses are Continuing the People’s Welfare Agenda, Supporting Businesses and Increasing Vaccinations.
“Since the Covid-19 pandemic hit our country, the government has implemented seven assistance programmes and stimulus packages with a total value of RM380 billion.
“So far, more than RM200 billion has been channelled and benefited more than 20 million people and 2.4 million businesses. Budget 2021 is worth RM322.5 billion and there is still RM100 billion to be spent until the end of this year,” he said during the announcement of the Pemulih package which was broadcast live on television today.
Muhyiddin said to focus on continuing the people’s welfare agenda, the government announced that until the end of this year, it would channel direct cash assistance to the people amounting to RM10 billion. This direct cash assistance includes Bantuan Prihatin Rakyat or BPR.
During the recent Pemerkasa Plus announcement, the government agreed to provide additional BPR payment of up to RM500 in July and the payment will be made in stages starting tomorrow, June 29.
Meanwhile, the third phase of BPR with aid of RM100 to RM1,400 will be paid in September.
September will also involve payments of approved BPR appeal cases.
In total, the BPR value until the end of the year was RM4.9 billion.
Meanwhile, to ensure that the people receive assistance in the coming months until the end of 2021, he also announced the provision of Special COVID-19 Assistance or BKC with the following rates and categories:
Hardcore poor households will receive assistance of RM500 in August, RM500 in November and RM300 in December.
Single individuals in the hardcore poor category will receive assistance of RM200 in August and RM300 in November.
B40 households will receive assistance of RM500 in August and RM300 in December and single B40 individuals will receive assistance of RM200 in August.
M40 households will enjoy assistance of RM250, while M40 singles will receive RM100 in August.
“Overall, this BKC grant is expected to benefit more than 11 million households, senior citizens and singles with an allocation of RM4.6 billion,” he said.
He said the government will also provide electricity discounts to domestic and non-domestic consumers where the government will bear an additional cost of RM1 billion.
To focus on supporting business, the government will channel several forms of assistance to ensure business continuity in these two phases.
Through this second focus, several approaches will be improved such as reducing employers’ costs, supporting digitalisation efforts, providing financial assistance and tax incentives, providing financing facilities and continuing employment incentives.
“The implementation of the Prihatin Special Grant or GKP has successfully supported business survival among small traders, especially those who are still not allowed to operate.
“Overall, the government has allocated a total of RM5.1 billion through the GKP initiative. Recently, under Pemerkasa Plus, eligible recipients had already received their GKP 3.0 payment of RM1,000 about two weeks ago and will receive a further RM500 in mid-July,” he said.
The government also understands the difficulties faced by micro, small and medium entrepreneurs at present and announces the provision of additional payments under GKP 4.0 to eligible recipients of RM500 to be paid in September and another RM500 in November 2021.
“The government hopes that with this GKP 4.0 payment, about one million micro, small and medium entrepreneurs, such as barbershop operators, workshop owners, bakery and cake shops, healthcare centres, etc can reduce their monthly liabilities and help their cash flow.
“What is important, for micro-entrepreneurs who have not yet received this assistance, registration will open in mid-July,” he said.
PM announces Pemulih package, new cash aid BKC worth RM4.6 billion
KUALA LUMPUR: Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is unveiling the government's latest aid package for the rakyat called Pakej Perlindungan Rakyat dan Pemulihan Ekonomi or Pemulih..
In a special address being broadcast live to the nation this evening, Muhyiddin said the package is worth RM150 billion, including the government's direct fiscal injection of RM10 billion..
Pemulih is aimed at giving a comprehensive aid to the rakyat based on three main focuses; continuing with the Prihatin Rakyat agenda, supporting businesses and increasing vaccination rate..
To ensure that the people continue to receive aid in the months to come until year end, Muhyiddin announced the Bantuan Khas Covid-19 or BKC worth RM4.6 billion which will benefit over 11 million households, senior citizens and singles in the Bottom40 (B40) and Medium40 (M40) categories..
.
"In the hardcore poor category, households will receive RM500 in Aug and Nov as well as RM300 in Dec while single people will get RM200 in Aug and RM300 in Nov..
"Households in the B40 category will get RM500 in Aug and RM300 in Dec while single people will receive RM200 in Aug..
"The M40 households and singles, he said, will get RM250 and RM100 respectively in Aug," he said..
https://youtu.be/P3_hgMNUQqk
Muhyiddin said this was in addition to the Bantuan Prihatin Rakyat or BPR which was announced in Pemerkasa Plus previously where the government agreed to give aid of up to RM500 in July and in stages starting tomorrow (June 29)..
Phase 3 of the BPR, he said, where the assistance ranges between RM100 and RM1,400 will be paid out in September, along with payments for BPR appeal cases which have been approved..
Overall, the value of BPR stands at RM4.9 billion..
Muhyiddin said there will also be Bantuan Kehilangan Pendapatan where in Oct, Rm500 will be channeled to workers who had lost their income based on the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and the Social Security Organisation's (Socso) data this year..
The aid, he said, will benefit up to 1 million members with a financial implication of RM500 million..
"These three financial assistance from June to Dec this year are catered to those who are in need. I hope it will help the beneficiaries for their survival in the coming months, insyaAllah..
"I am aware that many have been badly affected for over a year since the pandemic started. Although millions of Malaysians have benefited from cash assistance since March last year and many had received government aid of sorts, I understand that assistance must continue to be stepped up for as long as this crisis lasts..
"The government will try its best to ease the burden shouldered by the people and we will not stop to do our best," he said..
Muhyiddin added that the government will expand the Elaun Mencari Pekerjaan (Job-Seeking Allowance) to Sosco non-contributors, especially new graduates, school-leavers and informal sector workers where those who are registered under MyFutureJobs are set to receive at least a RM300 allowance..
The government, he added, will allocate RM125 million through the Human Resource Development Corporation to implement the Place and Train initiative under the Janapreneur programme especially for school-leavers and graduates..
"This initiative is expected to offer opportunities to 30,000 people to undergo skill training programmes with the assurance of job employment once it concludes..
"The Malaysian Digital Economy Corporation will enhance its existing programmes which are eRezeki and Glow to assist over 20,000 job seekers in the gig economy sector," he said..
Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin also announces discounts on ... on electricity bills, to cash and food aid to be allocated through MPs from both sides of the divide. ... part of Pemulih, the government's RM150 billion financial aid package to ... RM4.6 billion for Covid-19 Special Assistance (BKC) involving 11
e-Filing counter facilities are no longer available since last year following the new norm SOP.
LET’S Click HASiL is a convenient programme for taxpayers to declare their income and pay taxes to the the Inland Revenue Board (IRB).
What is Let’s Click HASiL
Let’s Click HASiL enables taxpayers to submit their income tax return or make payment through the convenience of the easy, accurate and secure MyTax app.
MyTax is the primary access to ezHASiL services such as e-Filing, e-Register, ByrHASiL and other services accessible to all taxpayers with a single sign-on.
Taxpayers can file their return form electronically while ensuring the details are accurate.
Additionally, the programme also provides advice to taxpayers through virtual briefings held in accordance with new norm SOP set by the government.
Submission deadline
The Let’s Click HASiL programme runs from March 1 to June 30,2021.
For individuals without business income, they have until April 30 to submit their BE Form.
People who receive income from business have until June 30 to submit their B Form.
However, e-BE submission via e-Filing allows taxpayers to submit the form by May 15 – an extended period compared to paper submission by April 30, while the deadline for e-B is July 15.
Tax refund
For individuals without business income, their employer would have made monthly tax deduction off the monthly salary, reducing the burden of employees as they don’t have to pay a lump sum for their annual income tax.
You are eligible to receive a tax refund if you have paid excess monthly tax deduction than the actual tax levied. The income tax imposed can be reduced through tax reliefs and tax rebates.
The e-Filing service gives taxpayers the advantage of receiving their tax refunds within 30 working days as opposed to 90 days for form submissions by post or hand delivery.
ezHASiL simplified taxation
ezHASiL enables taxpayers to manage their taxation online through e-Filing, e-Register, e-Update, e-Ledger and ByrHASiL without having to visit IRB branches physically.
e-Filing counter facilities are no longer available since last year following the new norm SOP.
The e-Filing system can be accessed via the IRB’s official website at www.hasil.gov.my > MyTax > ezHasil Services > e-Filing.
First-time users are required to obtain the PIN number by filling in the feedback form on the website.
Once you have the PIN number, you can start your e-Filing, make payments using ByrHASiL, access payment review through e-Ledger or update personal details via e-Update.
Declare and pay your income tax at mytax.hasil.gov.my. Let us all do our part to ensure prosperity for the country.
Inquiries can be made through the Customer Feedback Form or call the HASiL Care Line (03-8911 1000). Visit www.hasil.gov.my for further information.
Malaysia may, to a certain extent, be less
vulnerable with the revival of major construction projects which in view
of the country’s strained finances, have been shrunk to cut costs. The
Singapore economy may undergo a “shallow, technical recession” in the
third quarter.
TALK of recession has hit the region, and near home, Maybank Kim Eng Research is flagging that possibility for Singapore in the next quarter.
Export-reliant economies are hard hit by slowing growth and supply chain disruptions caused by the prolonged US-China trade and tech war.
There may be a ceasefire now in the fight between the US and China following talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 Summit in Osaka last Saturday.
Existing US tariffs on Chinese imports still remain; additional tariffs on the remaining US$300 bil worth of Chinese imports, as threatened, will not be imposed for now
However, the new timeline for truce remains elusive; the suspicion is that of a “creeping” imposition of tariffs, as “each truce is followed by new tariffs and then, another truce.”
In December last year, Trump and Xi had struck a truce following which talks broke down in May this year, and tariffs on US$200bil of Chinese imports leaped from 10% to 25%.
Will there be light out of this tunnel, with harder issues involving tech and supremacy not tackled? Smaller economies with the fiscal and monetary space may be able to cushion their economies somewhat from the downdraft on growth.
Malaysia may, to a certain extent, be less vulnerable with the revival of major construction projects which in view of the country’s strained finances, have been shrunk to cut costs.
The Bandar Malaysia and East Coast Rail Link projects to be revived, are now downsized to RM144bil and RM44bil respectively.
Works for the Light Rail Transit (LRT) 3, from Bandar Utama in Petaling Jaya to Johan Setia in Klang, will resume in the second half of the year, at a reduced cost of RM16.63bil.
Talks are said to be ongoing to revive the Mass Rapid Transit Line (MRT) 3, or MRT Circle Line round the city centre, at possibly RM22.5bil which is half the original cost.
“The timing (of the revival of these projects) has been very good for Malaysia,’’ said Pong Teng Siew, the head of research at Inter-Pacific Securities. “These projects will go on for several years and positively impact the economy over that period.’’
Domestic spending and activities will provide ‘some comfort’ to the local economy but we should ensure that any further monetary easing actually goes into the real economy to support these activities, according to Anthony Dass, head of AmBank Research.
Malaysia’s private consumption was at a record 59.5% of its nominal (calculated at current market prices) Gross Domestic Product, which hit US$88.5 bil in March, 2019, according to CEIC Data.
Benefits from trade diversion from China, the current US tariff hotspot, are offset by downward pressure on global trade where volume was flat in the first quarter, the weakest since the financial crisis.
Global semiconductor sales also declined in February and March, the first back-to-back double digit contraction since the financial crisis.
In view of this decline, the volatile global trade environment and rising geopolitical tensions, open economies “should be prepared for the unexpected,’’ said Nor Zahidi Alias, the associate director of economic research of Malaysian Rating Corp.
The Singapore economy may undergo a “shallow, technical recession” in the third quarter, said Maybank Kim Eng, pointing to possible intensification of supply chain disruptions and US export controls on more Chinese tech firms.
Following the Trump-Xi talks, the US has reversed its equipment sales ban on Huawei but will that ease fears of other similar bans down the road? Defined as two consecutive quarters of negative quarter-on-quarter growth, a recession will prompt further easing of monetary policy in Singapore.
Manufacturing in Singapore, which accounts for a fifth of the economy, fell 2.4%, with electronics dropping 10.8% in May from a year ago; output is expected to decline again in June.
Hong Kong has also been issued warnings of recession, as its economy experienced the largest contraction since 2011, declining by 0.4% in the first quarter against the previous quarter.
Thailand’s economy grew at its slowest pace in four years, in the first quarter, hitting 2.8% from 3.6% in the same period last year; exports remain weak.
Taiwan’s economy avoided contraction in the first quarter but private consumption and gross capital formation slowed significantly while government consumption declined.
In the US, a mis-calibration in interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve can cause a sharper slowdown than expected or bring on a recession.“Monetary policy affects the economy with unpredictable lags, it could be hard for the Fed to time its policy (rate cut) that can prevent a downturn this and next year,’’ said Lee Heng Guie, the executive director of Socio Economic Research Center.
Columnist Yap Leng Kuen notes the reminder to ‘expect the unexpected.’
Even though there are signs of China-US trade frictions
turning around, as the US political system will not fundamentally change
in the short term, China must remain vigilant and prepare for a
long-term trade war, in case the hawks gain the upper hand.
