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Showing posts with label Properties. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Properties. Show all posts

Friday, October 15, 2021

Budget 2022 likely to be friendly to house buyers

 

https://youtu.be/YsuhuxDTjIA

Rerating of property sector justified


“We do not anticipate any new dramatic tightening policies, as this would derail the recovery of the property sector.” TA Securities Research

PETALING JAYA: Budget 2022 will likely contain elements that make home ownership and financing more accessible, according to TA Securities Research.

“Following the full reopening of all economic sectors this month, we expect that better market sentiment along with stronger recovery in economic and business activity to contribute to better developers’ sales prospects ahead, which will eventually translate into stronger earnings going forward,” said the research unit.

TA Securities Research maintained its “overweight” rating on the property sector, and said a rerating is justified, considering developers’ encouraging sales growth and attractive valuations.

“We do not anticipate any new dramatic tightening policies, as this would derail the recovery of the property sector,” it said.

Taking a cue from the recently announced 12th Malaysia Plan (12MP), it also opined that Budget 2022 would primarily focus on ensuring adequate, quality, and affordable housing, improving the living standard of poor households and monitoring and evaluating efforts as well as achieving urban sustainability.

It is anticipated that the focus of Budget 2022 would be to ease the burden of the B40 and M40 as their livelihood was largely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Also, Budget 2022 should be primarily helpful to low-to-middle-income earners as well as to first-time home owners.

TA Securities Research is also hopeful for more measures to ease the burden of property owners by extending the real property gains tax (RPGT) exemptions along with lower RPGT rates.

Based on its channel checks, it said property developers’ wish lists and expectations for Budget 2022 include promoting homeownership among the low-to-middle income group, reiterating and broadening existing public housing schemes, making home ownership and financing easier, extending the Home Ownership Campaign to 2022, and a tax relief for mortgage interest.

Property developers are hoped for incentives such as a relaxation of requirements for the Malaysia My Second Home (MM2H) programme.

Despite the fact that the MM2H programme only accounts for a fraction of the overall number of homebuyers in Malaysia, it can nonetheless contribute to reducing the overhang of unsold properties.

“We note the recent adjustments to the MM2H programme criteria for new applicants could be extremely stringent, discouraging foreigners from settling and working in Malaysia,” said TA Securities Research.

Additional incentives are needed to promote green development in Malaysia and to encourage developers to adopt accredited green certification tools during the construction and operation phases of development projects.

The government should grant additional tax incentives to developers of green-certified buildings, allowing them to claim income tax deductions equal to the additional capital expenditure required to obtain green certification.

On top of that, the government may consider offering stamp duty exemptions to purchasers who acquire properties that have been certified as environmentally friendly in order to stimulate demand.

“This is primarily to address the higher cost of green building construction in comparison to conventional buildings, which may deter potential buyers from making the investment,” said TA Securities Research.

 Source link

 

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Government Budget in Malaysia increased to -3.20 percent of GDP in 2020 from -3.40 percent of GDP in 2019. source: Ministry of Finance Malaysia

Malaysia Government Budget

Malaysia Government Budget
 
Government Budget is an itemized accounting of the payments received by government (taxes and other fees) and the payments made by government (purchases and transfer payments). A budget deficit occurs when an government spends more money than it takes in. The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus.
 

Malaysia Last Unit Reference Previous Highest Lowest
Government Budget -3.20 percent of GDP Dec/20 -3.40 2.40 -6.70


Sunday, August 2, 2020

‘It’s the right time to invest’


We found that data availability and transparency in the real estate sector is less than what we were used to when we were working in the financial industry and we are set to change that, ” says Red Angpow co-founder Erhan Azrai.


PETALING JAYA: Even as many consumers are cautious in purchasing high-ticket items in light of the Covid-19 pandemic, industry experts say sale of properties and cars have been rising since June.
Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda) Malaysia national council member Tony Khoo Boon Chuan said property sales had picked up since June, thanks to lower interest rates and the extension of the government’s Home Ownership Campaign (HOC) until 2021.

“No doubt buyers are guarded when buying high-priced products.

“But others who are not affected financially also realise the time is here to buy or invest in a new property, ” he said in an interview.

Apart from the HOC’s 10% discount on the selling price, Khoo said buyers also enjoy incentives such as stamp duty exemption, free legal fees and freebies such as home security and alarm systems, additional cabling, fittings and fixtures.

“There are so many choices with perks and benefits in the market now for buyers.

“This is indeed the right time to invest, ” he said.

HOC is a government initiative in 2019 aimed at supporting homebuyers, and it has been reintroduced in June under the Penjana economic revival plan.

Khoo noted that the government’s exemption of real property gains tax for Malaysians for disposal of up to three properties had made it easy for property sales in the secondary market.

“This will certainly encourage a lot of investors and buyers who are looking to upgrade, ” he said.

In the automotive industry, both new and used cars have seen brisk sales in recent months, with foot traffic at showrooms having increased tremendously.

Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) president Datuk Aishah Ahmad said new car sales improved to 42,000 in June, compared with 22,000 in May, following the government’s announcement to remove the sales tax for certain categories of vehicles.

“Many car companies are offering lots of discounts and attractive hire purchase rates to entice customers, ” she said.

Although many car buyers are still cautious, she said premium cars purchases did not see much problem.

In fact, Aishah said MAA had readjusted the forecast of Malaysia’s total industry volume to 470,000 for this year, versus the earlier forecast of 400,000.

Federation of Motor and Credit Companies Association of Malaysia president Datuk Tony Khor Chong Boon agreed, adding that the used car market had also experienced tremendous growth in July.

“June sales were on par with full recovery following the recovery movement control order.

“July was very encouraging with 37,880 units sold, which is 25% higher than the same month last year, ” he said, adding that it was the highest monthly sales achieved in the last five years.

In contrast, he said used car sales only chalked up 303 units in April, when the usual monthly figure was between 30,000 and 35,000 units.

Khor said several factors contributed to the recent good vibes in the automotive industry, with measures introduced in the government’s economic revival plan shown to work.

“The moratorium has allowed some to have more money to spend, while the sales tax exemption has stimulated sales.

“Some buyers choose to get a car due to concerns about physical distancing and hygiene in public transport, ” he said, adding that used cars costing around RM30,000 were popular.

He noted that brisk sales of used cars resulted in a long waiting time for inspection at Puspakom, with a minimum wait time of at least five to seven days, and even 10 days or more at some locations.

When asked, Khor said it was hard to predict how long the good vibes would last because the real challenge would come when many borrowers are required to pay when the moratorium is lifted beginning October.

“To keep the market and economy stimulated, the government has to periodically come out with relevant measures and policies, ” he said.

Human resource executive CW Lim, who has been househunting for a few months, said he would make use of the discount and offers to buy a house in the Klang Valley.

“With the HOC, I’ll be able to save tens of thousand in downpayment, stamp duty fees and legal fees that could take me years to save up.

“Since my job and industry is not affected much, I hope I will soon own a house through these offers, ” said the 30-year-old from Klang.

Clinic nurse Farisha Azman, 29, who has been commuting to work from Subang Jaya to Shah Alam daily using the train, said she was in the process of buying a new car.

“Not having to worry about distancing on the train gives me peace of mind, ” she said.


Serving property investors’ needs

WITH the property market expected to remain soft over the next few months, tech startupRED ANGPOW Analytics is hopeful that property owners will be knocking on its doors for help to better manage their asset portfolios.

The company does online map-based real estate due diligence, feasibility study and price analytics.

“We foresee asset holders requiring good information to manage their portfolios. Data on past transactions that have been useful will no longer be enough.

“We found that data availability and transparency in the real estate sector is less than what we were used to when we were working in the financial industry and we are set to change that, ” says Red Angpow co-founder Erhan Azrai.

The startup generally has two groups of target clients, which are development-based organisations and individuals who use research to make decisions such as property investors, analysts, researchers, valuers and banks. Red Angpow’s services are not only useful for developers, but also related industries that are supporting real estate.

Erhan notes that clients are becoming savvier and are looking for more opportunities in the soft property market and they will need more relevant data to make their investment decisions.

“After the 1997-1998 financial crisis, the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) was created to provide accurate and timely information on the property market.

“In the current environment, we believe the timing is right for an enhanced service.

“In the longer term, there is a need to increase the efficiency of the real estate market with a lot more data transparency.

“From the work that we have done so far, we saw that a lot of data is actually available, but it is unstructured and comes from multiple sources.

“Before we can compile all this data via an artificial intelligence means, we are doing the very basic first, which is getting the data cleaned, tagged and harmonised in a form that can be used easily by researchers, ” he says.

He adds that ensuring property investors have timely and accurate data has become even more important now as real estate loans make up a sizeable portion of total loans.

As of February 2020, Erhan notes that real estate loans in the banking system stood at RM836bil or 47% of total loans.

“This staggering amount needs better data to manage the portfolio, especially when industries are cutting jobs. A 10% downward correction will affect up to 5% of the total loan portfolio, depending on the age of the loan asset. That’s a huge amount.”

While the movement control order (MCO) has hindered some of its plans, Red Angpow has been fortunate to have raised enough capital to weather the course for the next two years.

“So, we are going to stay the course. The MCO allows us to hunker down and complete our work. We planned to launch a subscription for property analytics dashboard by July. But we are confident that we will hit the ground running once again after the MCO is lifted, ” he says.



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Thursday, July 9, 2020

Be the bull in a bear market – stop procrastination

https://youtu.be/UzoZxKmLOAI

We’re almost well into the third quarter of 2020 – have you made headway in any of this year’s financial priorities and goals? Or perhaps you have been thrown off guard by the state of affairs in by the Covid-19? In a challenging environment like now, it is even more crucial to sit down and do a critical review of your latest financial status.
TIME flies by quickly when you’re going about your daily grind. We’re almost well into the third quarter of 2020 – have you made headway in any of this year’s financial priorities and goals?

Or perhaps you have been thrown off guard by the state of affairs in by the Covid-19? In a challenging environment like now, it is even more crucial to sit down and do a critical review of your latest financial status.

Loss of livelihood, pay cuts, unemployment, business closures, and a looming global recession – this is the trail of devastation left by a virus which has played havoc around the globe.

Interesting enough, if this health crisis is not enough to shake you into action to take charge of your finances, then what will?

According to the Oxford English dictionary, procrastination is defined as a postponement, “often with the sense of deferring though indecision, when early action would have been preferable, ” or as “defer[ing] action, especially without good reason.”

Throughout my experience as a licensed financial advisor, I have met many people who procrastinated over reviewing their financial status, let alone in growing their wealth. There are many reasons for this. Some lack the knowledge on where to begin, while others may cite the poor state of economy or our poor tax regime. However, the bigger reason usually lies in our tendency to procrastinate.

Procrastination is one of mankind’s biggest weaknesses – we have all procrastinated doing something important at some point. But in the world of finance, procrastination can result in an opportunity loss to mitigate risk and in growing wealth – sometimes an opportunity which can never be recovered. After all, it takes time for any investment to compound into a significant figure.

Yap ming Hui
Yap ming HuiYap ming Hui

In this article, I’m going to highlight some of the common reasons people use to put off taking actions on their financial matters.


> “I don’t have enough time to plan and invest”

This is a common reason people often say, when putting off investing. In today’s economy, most households require both spouses to work full-time jobs in order to afford the lifestyle that they desire. In the office, you’re stressing about deadlines, projects to complete, and deadlines to meet.

At home you’re likely seeing to your family, social life, and chores, and any leftover time is probably spent away vacationing to rejuvenate so you can rinse and repeat. Add kids to the equation, and you’ll barely have any time left to breathe.

Who really has the time to spend to research, plan and invest? After all, you still have 20 years headstart till your retirement, you should be able to put it off for later, right?

Wrong. Pushing things for later is comfortable, as you convince yourself that it will get done eventually. However, as most of us know by now, later is a concept that is never ending. There is always a “later” to convince yourself about. Before you know it, too much time would have passed and you’ll have too little time to play catch up to achieve the financial goals you could have well achieved if you started earlier.

What you need to do: Set a date and time and clear your schedule. If being at home is too much of a distraction with the family present, then find a place where you can be isolated to focus on your financial planning. Alternatively, outsource these efforts to an independent financial advisor who can review your financial status and manage the wealth for you.

> “I don’t have enough money to plan and invest”


Most people don’t realise it, but having enough money is a matter of perspective. If you don’t have enough money to invest when you’re earning RM5,000 a month, do you think you will have enough to invest when you’re earning RM50,000 a month? Believe it or not, I have met several people earning around RM50,000 or more per month and still lament about not having enough to save and invest.

We always think along the lines of “if only we make more money”, but once we actually start making more money, our expenses and lifestyle will also go up a notch.

The famous Parkinson’s Law coined by C. Northcote Parkinson in his book The Law and The Profits illustrates this concept best. The law says that work expands to fill the time that is allocated to complete it. In other words, if given a 24-hour deadline, a 20-minute job will take a day to complete.

He goes on to say that individual expenditure does not only rise to meet income but it tends to surpass it, and probably always will. So, if you’re waiting for a time when you feel you have enough money to save and invest, that time will never come.

What you need to do: Take a long hard look at your expenses. This is critical since we are now in challenging economic times. Mindfully track your spending habits for a month and cut back on luxuries that you can live without. If it helps, set up a standing instruction with your bank to automatically transfer a portion of your salary into another bank account. Use that to start investing. Every small portion helps, so don’t think that cutting back on a small luxury is insignificant.

> “I don’t really need to invest”

People won’t admit to thinking this, but they do. This fallacy of not needing to invest stems from the fact that when they retire someday, they will have their EPF savings to rely on. Technically, if you are earning a comfortable amount and do not make any EPF withdrawals before you retire, you may be right in thinking this.

However, this is hardly the case. EPF has reported that more than two-thirds (68%) of EPF members aged 54 had less than RM50,000 in EPF savings, while only 18% of its members had the minimum savings target of RM240,000 in their account by 55. This amounts to a monthly withdrawal of RM1,000 to cover basic needs for 20 years – sufficient if you want to live a basic retirement lifestyle, but nowhere near what is needed for a comfortable retirement in a middle-class lifestyle.

So if you’re thinking of relying mainly on your EPF savings, think again. Your EPF should act as an additional retirement fund on top of your other retirement savings, instead of being the only pillar in your retirement plan.

What you need to do: Start planning now for additional retirement savings. Before you invest, determine the lifestyle that you want to live when you’re retired and calculate how much you’d roughly need over the span of your retirement. Don’t know where to start?

Use a holistic financial planning app, like iWealth, to do a comprehensive calculation on your retirement and other major financial goals. Remember to factor in inflation.

While half of the year has flown by just like that, it’s never too late to examine your financial health and take the necessary steps to protect and grow your wealth.

Over the years I’ve shared many articles to inspire middle class folk like yourselves to take control of your financial destiny.

I certainly hope this knowledge has proven useful and relevant to your personal circumstances.

However, I also hope that you have begun putting into place some of these practices. Today, you may have gotten a better idea of what has been stopping you from investing properly.

Procrastination is a very human trait – but if you’re able to identify what’s been holding you back and take the necessary measures to monitor yourself and counter this, you’ll already have the upper hand on your future.

Remember, true power comes from knowledge. But knowledge without action, is useless.

During good times, there may not be an urgency to act. But we have now arrived at an unprecedented juncture where there will be a cost or consequence to our inaction. If this is not the time to take the bull by the horns, then when?

By Yap Ming Hui

The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Sunday, March 10, 2019

The single worst financial decision


Buying a new car is regarded as a waste of money

  WHEN I discussed whether to buy a car or a house first in my last article, I received a lot of feedback from friends and readers. Someone even sent me an interesting article entitled “Buying a New Car Is the Single Worst Financial Decision”.

The remark was made by Davis Bach, a self-made millionaire who is also one of the American best-selling financial authors, a motivational speaker and an entrepreneur.

That was a bold statement but not without basis. In the article published by CNBC Make It, David Bach said, “Nothing you will do in your lifetime, realistically, will waste more money than buying a new car.”

He pointed out that a car's value drops 20% to 30% by the end of the first year. In five years, it can lose 60% or more of its initial value. And, most people actually borrow money to buy a car.

“Why would you borrow money to buy an asset that immediately goes down in value by 30%?” says Bach.

His views concurred with the idea I have been sharing in this column over the years.

In my last article, I mentioned the value of my friend’s car dropped 70% from RM140,000 to RM40,000 over eight years. On the other hand, another friend who bought an affordable apartment during the same time, enjoyed a huge capital appreciation as the apartment increased from RM100,000 to more than RM200,000 during the same period.

Both borrowed money to buy their house and car respectively. However, there is a clear contrast between the two items by looking at their long-term values. A house is an appreciating asset, and a loan on such an asset I like to call a “Good Debt”; while a car losses money, and is therefore deemed as “Bad Debt”.

Not only does a car depreciate in value, but owning a car also comes with expenses such as petrol, maintenance, licence, toll, insurance and parking costs. A person who owns a normal sedan car and travels about 1,000 km per month, can easily spend about RM1,500 per month for car loan repayment and other relevant expenses.

With ride-sharing services (such as GrabCar in Malaysia, and Uber & Lyft in other countries) becoming so convenient, and with the LRT and MRT networks being more developed, we can now choose to be car-loan free. Imagine having your own “driver” and able to use your time productively to read a book or relax when being caught in traffic jam. We are now able to enjoy this with ride-sharing services on call.

For a more economical approach, you can even opt for a "hybrid" transportation mode by combining ride-sharing and public transport services.

Chua, a reader from Muar wrote me an email last month. He shared his experience of not having purchased a property when he was young and only bought one when he was in his mid-30s due to some misperceptions.

“Looking back, how wrong I was! But today, there are just as many graduates who think just like myself when I was in my 20s and 30s. Therefore, your constant reminder to Malaysians is valid and practical. Instead of a new car, get a used car. Buy a medical insurance policy, pay EPF and try to buy a small property. These should be the priority of any young Malaysian,” Chua wrote in his email.

Bach, the self-made millionaire said, “If you’re spending US$500 (RM2,000) a month for that car, well, that’s US$6,000 (RM24,000) a year, not including the car insurance or the gas (petrol). That could be two months or three months of your income. Run the numbers and then ask yourself: Do you really need a car that's nice or could you buy a car that’s less expensive – maybe a little older – but still looks good and runs?”

That’s the sentiment that I had when I wrote about buying a house first before a car.

Buying a car may not be the single worst financial decision for everyone. There are different financial priorities at different stages of life. However, it may be the case if you buy a brand new expensive nice car prior to owning any long-run appreciating asset or investment, like a house!

Food for thought by Alan Tong

Datuk Alan Tong has over 50 years of experience in property development. He was the World president of FIABCI International for 2005/2006 and awarded the Property Man of the Year 2010 at FIABCI Malaysia Property Award. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties. For feedback, please email bkp@bukitkiara.com

Related posts:

Better to buy a car or a house first?


Putting our house in order



Restructuring our household debt

 

Leaving a legacy by buying a house first before a luxury car ...


Rich Gen-Y kids making their own success


Housing affordability is an income issue, what's with the fuss?


How to allocate your money wisely: lessons from my father


The single worst financial decision


Buying a new car is regarded as a waste of money

 WHEN I discussed whether to buy a car or a house first in my last article, I received a lot of feedback from friends and readers. Someone even sent me an interesting article entitled “Buying a New Car Is the Single Worst Financial Decision”.

The remark was made by Davis Bach, a self-made millionaire who is also one of the American best-selling financial authors, a motivational speaker and an entrepreneur.

That was a bold statement but not without basis. In the article published by CNBC Make It, David Bach said, “Nothing you will do in your lifetime, realistically, will waste more money than buying a new car.”

He pointed out that a car's value drops 20% to 30% by the end of the first year. In five years, it can lose 60% or more of its initial value. And, most people actually borrow money to buy a car.

“Why would you borrow money to buy an asset that immediately goes down in value by 30%?” says Bach.

His views concurred with the idea I have been sharing in this column over the years.

In my last article, I mentioned the value of my friend’s car dropped 70% from RM140,000 to RM40,000 over eight years. On the other hand, another friend who bought an affordable apartment during the same time, enjoyed a huge capital appreciation as the apartment increased from RM100,000 to more than RM200,000 during the same period.

Both borrowed money to buy their house and car respectively. However, there is a clear contrast between the two items by looking at their long-term values. A house is an appreciating asset, and a loan on such an asset I like to call a “Good Debt”; while a car losses money, and is therefore deemed as “Bad Debt”.

Not only does a car depreciate in value, but owning a car also comes with expenses such as petrol, maintenance, licence, toll, insurance and parking costs. A person who owns a normal sedan car and travels about 1,000 km per month, can easily spend about RM1,500 per month for car loan repayment and other relevant expenses.

With ride-sharing services (such as GrabCar in Malaysia, and Uber & Lyft in other countries) becoming so convenient, and with the LRT and MRT networks being more developed, we can now choose to be car-loan free. Imagine having your own “driver” and able to use your time productively to read a book or relax when being caught in traffic jam. We are now able to enjoy this with ride-sharing services on call.

For a more economical approach, you can even opt for a "hybrid" transportation mode by combining ride-sharing and public transport services.

Chua, a reader from Muar wrote me an email last month. He shared his experience of not having purchased a property when he was young and only bought one when he was in his mid-30s due to some misperceptions.

“Looking back, how wrong I was! But today, there are just as many graduates who think just like myself when I was in my 20s and 30s. Therefore, your constant reminder to Malaysians is valid and practical. Instead of a new car, get a used car. Buy a medical insurance policy, pay EPF and try to buy a small property. These should be the priority of any young Malaysian,” Chua wrote in his email.

Bach, the self-made millionaire said, “If you’re spending US$500 (RM2,000) a month for that car, well, that’s US$6,000 (RM24,000) a year, not including the car insurance or the gas (petrol). That could be two months or three months of your income. Run the numbers and then ask yourself: Do you really need a car that's nice or could you buy a car that’s less expensive – maybe a little older – but still looks good and runs?”

That’s the sentiment that I had when I wrote about buying a house first before a car.

Buying a car may not be the single worst financial decision for everyone. There are different financial priorities at different stages of life. However, it may be the case if you buy a brand new expensive nice car prior to owning any long-run appreciating asset or investment, like a house!

Food for thought by Alan Tong

Datuk Alan Tong has over 50 years of experience in property development. He was the World president of FIABCI International for 2005/2006 and awarded the Property Man of the Year 2010 at FIABCI Malaysia Property Award. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties. For feedback, please email bkp@bukitkiara.com

Related posts:

Better to buy a car or a house first?


Putting our house in order



Restructuring our household debt

 

Leaving a legacy by buying a house first before a luxury car ...


Rich Gen-Y kids making their own success



Housing affordability is an income issue, what's with the fuss?


How to allocate your money wisely: lessons from my father



Saturday, August 4, 2018

Coming recession in 2020? Possibly earlier

Negative rates: Pedestrians walking past the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headquarters in Tokyo. BoJ’s goal remains at keeping real interest rates as negative as possible, as long as the economy performs. — Bloomberg
IT’S mid-term review time as the US yield curve begins to flatten.

This curve tracks the relationship between interest rates of US government debt obligations. Normally the yield curve is rising, with long-term bonds having yields higher than short-term obligations.

But occasionally the curve inverts, with long bonds yielding less than short Treasury bills – a historical predictor of future recessions and bear markets in stocks. Recently, the curve has become noticeably flatter, with short rates rising and longer yields remaining stagnant. This has led many analysts to think that the yield curve will soon invert.

But that does not mean a recession is imminent. Just returned from an extended visit back to Harvard. Touched base with my mentors and professors at both extremes of the economic spectrum. They are all split on what this flattening really means. In the event it does invert (the gap today being below 0.3%), recession has almost always (over the past 50 years) followed within a year or so. But few see a recession soon on the horizon.

The first half has come and gone. The ongoing transition to more normal conditions continue in the context of a robust US economy; continued progress in the orderly normalisation of US monetary policy; and re-awakened sensitivities to geopolitical and protectionist risks.

There will be higher interest rates, some inflation concerns and trade tariffs coming-on in the context of markets more readily accepting two to three more rate hikes by the Fed in 2018. The prospect of a global trade war makes everyone very cautious.

Once we start down the road of tariff increases and threats of more to come, the dangers of retaliatory miscalculations are real and very scary. Still even an inverted yield curve should not be on top of our worry list under today’s accommodative monetary conditions.

Synchronised pick-up

The world economy benefitted from four drivers of higher growth: the healing process in Europe, re-bound from slowdowns in Brazil, India and Russia; soft landing in China; and pro-growth measures in US.

To persist, Europe needs to do much more. Also, there is hope that recent tariff tensions would eventually lead to fairer and still-free trade which recognises the inter-dependent nature of global supply chains, and show greater willingness to protect intellectual property rights, modernize trade arrangements and reduce non-tariff barriers. Yes, more rate hikes from the Fed are still on the cards. But the same by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) demand trickier manoeuvring.

This is an area that warrants close monitoring since volatility will likely persist. At least for now, fears of Japan-like deflation in US and Europe are effectively gone. But OECD is worried global growth is not yet self-sustaining. It’s strength in 2018 is largely due to monetary and fiscal policy support – and lacking in rising productivity gains and sweeping structural reforms. In Europe, the “clock is ticking”; without reforms, more populist uprisings will appear as the upswing ages and then fades. US inflation is not only returning to the Fed’s 2% target, but also likely to exceed it. In Europe, consumer prices were last still lower than a year ago – below the ECB’s target of just below 2%. Fear of the spectre of deflation has led BOJ to remain cautious about tapering its monetary easing program. Will just have to wait and see.

IMF warns that the world’s US$164 trillion debt pile (at 225% of GDP) is bigger than at the height of the financial crisis a decade ago. One-half was accounted for by US, Japan and China. What’s needed is for US fiscal policy to be recalibrated to bring down the government debt to GDP ratio (80%) and for China to deleverage its US$ 2.6 trillion private debt. There is no sign either is being done which runs the risk of triggering yet another financial crisis.

Growth will falter

Growth in US can slow considerably when the boosts from last year’s tax-cuts in US fades in 2019 and 2020. IMF now warns that US will grow at about one-half the 3% annual pace forecast by the White House over the next 5 years, reflecting the effects of growing massive fiscal deficit and continuing trade imbalance. For US, sluggish productivity remains a key determinant. In 2Q18, GDP picked-up to rise 4.1% (2.2% in 1Q18) the fastest pace in nearly four years, reflecting broad-based momentum.

But worker productivity advanced 1.3% from a year earlier, consistent with the sluggish 1.2% average annual rate in 2007-2017, well below the better than 2% annual average since WWII. Spending by consumers, businesses and government as well as surging exports all appeared solid in 2Q18. The expansion enters its 10th year this month, building on what is already the second longest expansion on record. Faster growth which has helped to drive the unemployment rate to its lowest level in 18 years, fueled quick corporate profit growth.

Median estimates place GDP growth at 2.8% in 2018, 2.4% in 2019 and 1.8% over the long run. But everyone has growth slowing next year because of falling business and consumer sentiment, reflecting trade disputes with China and many US allies, and uncertainty whether rising business investment is sustainable.

The big concern is the economy overheating – already, it is bumping up against capacity constraints as labour markets tighten. Still, the consensus is that the next downturn will not arrive until 2020. Most economists expect 3% inflation over the next year. What worries me most is the deteriorating global political and strategic environment.

Not so much the economic outlook directly. The world is changing too much, too fast.

So much so, the geopolitical situation is getting worse – open warfare between Israel and Iran, the disgraceful state of Palestine, and uncertainties surrounding Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, and lack of leadership in Europe. Trade barriers are causing much anxiety. It is as though what’s put in place since WWII isn’t worth a damn anymore.

Europe and Japan

Latest indications from the Brookings-FT Index for Global Economic Recovery (Tiger) show global growth has peaked and momentum has started to fade. Indeed, financial markets are already reflecting mounting vulnerabilities. With weak economic data in 1H’18, Europe and Japan have since cooled. In late 2017, eurozone was still growing at 3.5%: Germany at 4%, France 3%, Italy 2% and Spain 3.5%. But activity slackened to only 1.2% in early April; even Germany recorded a sharp dip – down to only 1%, reflecting waning monetary easing effects and supply-side constraints. The outlook is for a strong above trend upswing for the rest of the year. OECD now expects GDP growth in 2018 to be 2.2% (2.6% in 2017) and in 2019, 2.1%.

For eurozone, the window for reforms is closing – ranging from the implementation of dual currencies for its members to putting European Parliament in charge of economic policy, including the euro-budget. Japanese GDP shrank 0.1% in 1Q18 despite a rise in capital investment. Household spending unexpectedly fell. Still, recovery is expected to be driven by a weak yen brought about by monetary stimulus (BoJ has been buying assets at US$740 billion a year to drive down long-term interest rates). But underlying inflation is stuck at 0.5%. BoJ’s goal remains at keeping real interest rates (after inflation) as negative as possible, as long as the economy performs. OECD forecasts growth in Japan to be 1.2% in 2018 (1.7% in 2017); the same in 2019.

China and BRICS

Many emerging markets (EMs) are still enjoying momentum from 2017, but there is growing concern about rising debt and vulnerabilities to capital flight as interest rates in US rise. For those recently emerged from recession, viz. Russia, Brazil and South Africa, their urge to return to strong levels of activity remains sluggish.

China and India have fewer concerns for their immediate outlook. Still, they need to reform their economies to help raise living standards to catch up. The main challenges will be to execute particular reforms – not just to the financial system but also to SOEs and local governments, including getting rid of corruption.

China’s GDP rose 6.7% in 2Q’18, the slowest pace since 2016. Retail sales held up rather well as did exports. Still, measures to curb rampant borrowing are biting – investments in infrastructure and manufacturing by SOEs and local governments have since slackened. These efforts, in the midst of headwinds from abroad (especially protectionist tariffs), have led to downgrades in growth for the rest of the year. IMF now forecasts GDP growth in China to average 6.5% in 2018 (6.8% in 2017) and about the same in 2019.

Recent depreciation of China’s currency, the yuan, exposes crucial vulnerabilities within the world’s second-largest economy as it faces escalating trade tensions with the US. The currency posted its biggest ever monthly fall against US$ in June (3.4%) and has since lost more ground. This slide marks a departure for the currency often regarded as an anchor of stability for Asia and other EMs.

As Beijing assesses the options, it finds itself between a rock and a hard place because (i) People’s Bank of China (PBoC) intervention means selling its US dollar stash of reserves – which stood at US$3.11 trillion in June; (ii) it could instead raise domestic interest rates, thereby making the currency more attractive which might help to shore up the yuan. But it also risks weakening an already slowing Chinese economy just as the trans-Pacific trade war starts to bite; and (iii) it could impose stricter controls on China’s capital account which will likely spook overseas funds that have rushed into China’s domestic bond and equity markets this year at an unprecedented rate.

However, to internationalise the yuan, China has to keep fund flows relatively unencumbered. The PBoC has sensibly pledged to keep the RMB “generally stable.” In July, China implemented a mix of tax cuts and greater infrastructure spending citing growing uncertainties, as it ramps up efforts to stimulate demand to counteract a weakening economy.

As for India, I wrote extensively on what’s happening there (my July 2018 column: “India: Chugging Along but Needs More Firepower” refers).

What then are we to do

As I see it, China and China-India centred Asia is now the heart of the world economy. Their steady growth has been a source of stability in an otherwise unsteady world.

Of late, developments in China received more scrutiny than usual because of the context: Chinese stock market has since fallen into bear territory, and a growing trade dispute with the world’s largest economy, US. Despite China’s astonishingly sustained expansion, the economy is widely considered vulnerable because growth in output has been underwritten by an even faster increase in debt.

The nation’s gross debt – both public and private – is now estimated at over 250% of GDP. The worry is not just the volume of debt but its quality. China’s domestic policies encourage high savings.

Those savings, held in banks, have been funneled to companies, especially SOEs. The credit quality of the loans is hard to assess but is likely to be uneven. China has since begun to slowly tighten the credit taps, with even tighter rules on shadow banking and more scrutiny for both local government financing and public-private investment projects.

At the same time, a sharp increase in the number of defaults by corporate issuers has revived anxieties about Chinese debt. In my view, it is the tighter credit conditions and defaults, rather than worries about a trade war, that best explain the recent 22% decline in the Shanghai Composite index from its January highs.

Tightening credit policy is also a compelling explanation for the weak macro-economics. Credit growth fell, and growth in fixed investment followed. This appears to be having some effect on consumer sentiment as well.

No doubt, Trump’s tariffs on US$50bil of Chinese imports (and threatens US$200bil more) will have a direct (but unlikely to be catastrophic) impact on growth. But China is now an investment-led rather than an export-led economy.

Still, it is the knock-on effects that are most feared. If the escalation of hostilities leads to a reduction in foreign direct investment in China, the long-term impact could be significant. True, China may be facing a delicate moment economically.

But given China’s deepening role in the world economy, any pain that the US manages to inflict on it would be quickly shared with the US and the broader world – at a moment when Europe’s economy is slowing, and many EMs looking unstable.

On the whole, China’s economy will remain strong and resilient. Whatever happens, I think this won’t change the Chinese situation much.


By Lin See-yan - what are we to do?

Former banker Tan Sri Lin See-Yan is the author of The Global Economy in Turbulent Times (Wiley, 2015) and Turbulence in Trying Times (Pearson, 2017). Feedback is most welcome.


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