Southeast Asia, like much of the rest of the world, is losing patience with King Dollar.
The westernization of the world’s reserve currency, as through sanctions on those deemed bad actors — such as Russia for its war in Ukraine — has pushed even the typically diplomatic Southeast Asians to warn the US of the consequences.
In a conference in Singapore on Tuesday (Jan 10), multiple former officials spoke about de-dollarisation efforts underway and what economies in the region should be doing to mitigate the risks of a still-strong dollar that’s weakened local currencies and become a tool of economic statecraft.
“The US dollar is a hex on all of us,” George Yeo, former foreign minister of Singapore, said at the conference hosted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “If you weaponise the international financial system, alternatives will grow to replace it” and the US dollar will lose its advantage.
While few expect to see the end of King Dollar’s global sovereign status anytime soon, Yeo urged that the risk of it happening be taken more seriously.
“When this will happen, no one knows, but financial markets must watch it very closely,” said Yeo, who is a visiting scholar at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
After gaining 6.2% in 2022, the US dollar is down 0.67% in the first several days of this year, through the end of Tuesday, according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.
Yeo noted that in times of crisis, the US dollar rises further — as with levies on Russia that have left Russian banks estranged from a network that facilitates tens of millions of transactions every day, forcing them to lean on their own, much smaller version instead. That’s put more pressure on third-party countries, too, which have to unduly rely on US dollar use.
Following on Yeo’s remarks later in the conference, former Indonesian trade minister Thomas Lembong applauded Southeast Asia's central banks that already have developed direct digital payments systems with local currencies, and encouraged officials to find more ways to avoid leaning too hard on the greenback.
“I have believed for a very long time that reserve currency diversification is absolutely critical,” said Lembong, who’s also a co-founder and managing partner at Quvat Management Pte Ltd. Supplementing US dollar use in transactions with use of the euro, renminbi, and the yen, among others, would lead to more stable liquidity, and ultimately more stable economic growth, he said.
The 10 Asean countries are just too disparate to establish a common currency as with the euro bloc. But Lembong said he was “deeply passionate” on this subject of the US dollar as a global reserve currency.
The direct digital payments systems — which have boosted local currency settlement between Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand — are “another great outlet for our financial infrastructure”, he said.- Bloomberg
Russia said it is to resume foreign currency interventions with the sales of yuan starting on Friday, a move
signaling that the Chinese currency is playing an increasingly important role in stabilizing the ruble and Russia's domestic financial
stability amid closer bilateral trade connections, experts said.
Growing acceptance: A bank employee counting 100-yuan notes in Nantong, China’s eastern Jiangsu province. Usage of the currency has jumped in the past three months as international funds boosted holdings of Chinese government bonds. — AFP `
BEIJING: The Chinese yuan is making deeper inroads as a currency of choice for global payments, with international transactions climbing to their highest level ever. `
Payments using the currency jumped to a record 3.2% of market share, according to data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, breaking through its previous high set in 2015 that came on the back of a currency devaluation in a bid to increase exports. `
Usage has jumped in the past three months as international funds boosted holdings of Chinese government bonds, pushing their share to a fresh record, and amid gas producer Gazprom Neft’s decision to accept yuan rather than dollars for fuelling the Russian airplanes at China’s airports. `
The People’s Bank of China governor Yi Gang urged emerging economies to promote the use of local currencies at a Group-of-20 central banks’ gathering Wednesday, echoing a similar call from Indonesia to reduce reliance on the dollar to manage the risk of Federal Reserve’s stimulus withdrawal. `
The yuan will be one of the biggest beneficiaries as “trade between various Asian countries and China grows, and more of it is denominated in yuan,” said Alvin T. Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. `
Yuan’s growing popularity could also provide additional support for assets denominated in the currency, even as China’s yield premium over the United States narrows due to policy divergence between the two nations. She expects the yuan to be assigned a larger share in the International Monetary Fund’s reevaluation of Special Drawing Rights basket in July. `
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade deal that deepens China’s regional foreign trade ties will also prompt member nations to raise yuan asset holdings due to further economic integration with China, she wrote in a note Wednesday. `
The currency retained its fourth place in the past two months, compared with being the 35th most-popular medium of exchange for payments in October 2010 when Swift, which handles cross-border payment messages for more than 11,000 financial institutions in 200 countries, started tracking. `
Despite its rise in the rankings and having upped its market share by orders of magnitude over the last 12 years, the yuan is still dwarfed in popularity by its more established peers, notably the US dollar and the euro. `
The dollar kept its top spot in January, a position it’s held since June, even though its market share fell to about 39.9% from 40.5% in December. `
The euro also lost ground but held onto second place, while the British pound and yen rounded out the top five in third and fifth place, respectively. — Bloomberg
China, France deepen RMB Cross-Border Interbank Payment System cooperation
The cooperation between China and France on the RMB
Cross-Border Interbank Payment System will help with
internationalization of the yuan and will also provide an opportunity
for the eurozone to reduce its reliance on the US dollar, experts said.
The currency’s correlation with an MSCI Inc index of its developing-nation peers rose to record in September on a weekly basis before edging back slightly amid the Omicron outbreak, Bloomberg data show.
`
BEIJING: The Chinese yuan is having a greater impact on its emerging-market counterparts than ever before and may play a crucial role in determining their performance in the coming year.
`
The currency’s correlation with an MSCI Inc index of its developing-nation peers rose to record in September on a weekly basis before edging back slightly amid the Omicron outbreak, Bloomberg data show.
`
While the close relationship is partly a result of China’s large weighting, it’s also been driven by the yuan’s links to the Brazilian real reaching the strongest since at least 2008, and that with India’s rupee touching a three-year high.The yuan’s rising global influence is yet another sign of China’s deepening connections across the world economy.
`
Investors are increasingly being drawn to its bonds as an alternative to United States Treasuries, while some banks are calling for the yuan to join the dollar, euro and yen as a global reserve currency.
`
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Yet with China’s potential being offset by murky policy making and regulatory crackdowns, being tied too closely to the yuan may also backfire.
`
“China is going to be a very important element of emerging-market stability and the growth picture,” said Magdalena Polan, principal economist at PGIM Ltd in London.
`
“The willingness for Chinese policy makers to stabilise growth will be very important to the outlook for Latam and Asia and South Africa, as countries there still rely quite a lot on exports from China.”
`
While correlations can be measured in many ways, China’s increasing presence in global trade has progressively boosted the yuan’s links with those of its emerging-market peers.
`
In 2000, the average developing nation sent only 2.2% of its exports to China, while that proportion has now grown to 11.3%, according to data from Societe Generale SA.
`
The investment bank says the yuan’s relative stability has traditionally made it most closely correlated with those of its emerging-market peers with strong and credible policy makers such as Mexico, Chile and South Korea.
`
Since the US-China trade war in 2018, however, the yuan’s links with emerging markets as a whole have grown stronger, with the average correlation rising to 83% that year, according to SocGen data.
`
There’s a risk of course that those very connections may also weigh on emerging-market currencies if the yuan begins to weaken. The major risk of that happening looks to be due to potential policy divergence, with the People’s Bank of China expected to ease monetary policy in 2022, just as central banks from the US, UK and Australia start to tighten.
`
The yuan will face a particular challenge as the Federal Reserve beings to raise borrowing costs, a move that is anticipated to lead to a stronger dollar and outflows from emergin
`g markets. Still, China’s currency has so far shown itself to be relatively resilient to monetary policy at home and abroad.
China’s economy has become an increasingly important influence on global growth over the past decade, and a vital one for emerging markets, according to JP Morgan Private Bank.
`
“Since the financial crisis, we’ve had mini cycles in global emerging markets, largely coincident in China’s property and credit cycle and since the crisis that has been the key driver of the outlook in emerging markets for the most part,” said Alexander Wolf, head of investment strategy, Asia, at JP Morgan Private Bank in Hong Kong.
`
The yuan’s relative resilience this year has also played a role in limiting fluctuations across emerging markets, in what has otherwise been a very tumultuous 12 months.
`
“The fact that the yuan’s not doing too much I categorise it as a volatility suppressant,” said Paul Mackel, head of global foreign-exchange research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “We believe that stability can last for longer.” — Bloomberg
It’s
finally happened. A major worldwide government has just bestowed a huge vote of confidence and legitimacy onto the world of cryptocurrencies. China, in an unprecedented move, just announced that they are officially adopting a certain cryptocurrency as China's official coin!
The government of China just informed that they have chosen a
preferred firm for the purchase and marketing of their new coin - YuanPay Group. The sales of China's coin officially started Juny 12 of 2021 and currently these coins can be bought only from YuanPay Group.
In fact, China deputy minister of finances, Liu Kun, informed that their new official coin stating price is just CNY 0.12!
! 1 Chinese Yuan equals
0.13 EUR
That’s right, the coin is incredibly inexpensive in comparison to most other coins out there. Bitcoin, for example, trades at CNY 65,366.84 at the time of this writing and Ethereum trades at
around CNY 1,362.76.
We were able to get Sir Richards Bronson’s thoughts on China’s new coin and this is what he had to say:
Sir Richard Bronson stated (pic): "Everytime a major corporation
announces even a small partnership with an individual
cryptocurrency, that coin’s value skyrockets. I can't wait to see what
is going to happen when a government officially adopts a crypto. When
the name of China’s coin is released, many people will become
millionaires practically overnight."
A few of us at forbes were curious enough to buy a couple coins just to see how everything looks and what the reading fees are
like.
It was fairly easy to get the coins, but i will show you the whole process below for those that are interested.
First step was to fill out all the details. As you can see, nothing complicated so far.
Second step, I was taken to YuanPay Group's wallet, where they chose my country specific broker to buy China's
coins.
Third step, I was taken to purchase page and had to fill out
my details.
For CNY 1,921, I received 21,375 coins at CNY 0.12 cents each. You
can see current value of my coins on the same page.
PS: As an early investor they gave me 5,367 extra coins for
free!
The whole process was simple and I even received a phone call
from one of YuanPay Group's friendly agents, but
I didn't really need any help as the whole process was easy
enough.
After finishing this article, literally around 4 hours, I
checked my wallet again and to my surprise:
In only 4 hours, the price increased from CNY 0.12 to CNY 0.31. At
this point, I was positively surprised. I am not selling my
coins as of yet because all the experts predict that the
price will rise to at least CNY 9,192.63 per coin in matter of
months.
YuanPay Group was kind enough to give us
a 100% accurate coin movement price counter, so everyone can see
the increase directly on this page.
Official price currently
1 coin=CNY 0.33
(Note - price is being updated every 30 minutes)
With a story of this nature, news seems to be breaking every so often,
we’ll be sure to update the story as needed.
You can find their promo video as well as direct coin sales here:
Cryptocurrency and Facebook logo are seen together in this photo. Photo: IC
https://youtu.be/eAPLA4oy7Ks
Experts raise concerns over privacy and regulation
Facebook unveiled plans Tuesday for a new global cryptocurrency called Libra, pledging to deliver stable virtual money that lives on smartphones and could bring over a billion "unbanked" people into the financial system.
The Libra coin plan, backed by financial and nonprofit partners, represents an ambitious new initiative for the world's biggest social network with the potential to bring crypto-money out of the shadows and into the mainstream.
Facebook and some two dozen partners released a prototype of Libra as an open source code for developers interested in weaving it into apps, services or businesses ahead of a rollout as global digital money next year.
The nonprofit Libra Association based in Geneva will oversee the blockchain-based coin, maintaining a real-world asset reserve to keep its value stable.
The Libra Association's Dante Disparte said it could offer online commerce and financial services at minimal cost to more than a billion "unbanked" people - adults without bank accounts or those who use services outside the banking system such as payday loans to make ends meet.
"We believe if you give people access to money and opportunity at the lowest cost, the way the internet itself did in the past with information, you can create a lot more stability than we have had up until now," Disparte, head of policy and communications, told AFP.
Facebook will be just one voice among many in the association, but is separately building a digital wallet called Calibra.
"We view this as a complement to Facebook's mission to connect people wherever they are; that includes allowing them to exchange value," Calibra vice president of operations Tomer Barel told AFP.
"Many people who use Facebook are in countries where there are barriers to banking or credit."
But the move raised questions about how such a new money would be regulated, with one lawmaker calling for a pause on Libra.
"Given the company's troubled past, I am requesting that Facebook agree to a moratorium on any movement forward on developing a cryptocurrency until Congress and regulators have the opportunity to examine these issues," said Maxine Waters, chair of the financial services committee in the US House of Representatives.
Meanwhile French Finance Minister Bruno le Maire said such digital money could never replace sovereign currencies.
"The aspect of sovereignty must stay in the hands of states and not private companies which respond to private interests," Le Maire told Europe 1 radio.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Facebook's new currency would have to withstand scrutiny of its operational resilience and not allow itself to be used for money laundering or terror financing.
ING economists Teunis Brosens and Carlo Cocuzzo said in a research note it was not clear what Libra was or how it might be overseen while US Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat and banking committee member, voiced concerns over Facebook's checkered record on protecting users' privacy.
Backed by real cash
Libra Association debuted with 28 members including Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, Kiva, PayPal, Lyft, Uber and Women's World Banking.
Calibra is being built into Facebook's Messenger and WhatsApp with a goal of letting users send Libra as easily as they might fire off a text message.
Libra learned from the many other cryptocurrencies that have preceded it such as bitcoin and is designed to avoid the roller-coaster valuations that have attracted speculation and caused ruin.
Real-world currency will go into a reserve backing the digital money, the value of which will mirror stable currencies such as the US dollar and the euro, according to its creators.
"It is backed by a reserve of assets that ensures utility and low volatility," Barel said.
The Libra Association will be the only entity able to "mint or burn" the digital currency, maintaining supply in tune with demand and assets in reserve, according to Barel.
"It is not about trusting Facebook, it is effectively trust in the association's founding organizations that this is independent and democratic," Disparte said.
New directions
The launch comes with Facebook seeking to move past a series of lapses on privacy and data protection that have tarnished its image and sparked scrutiny from regulators around the world.
Chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has promised a new direction for Facebook built around smaller groups, private messaging and payments.
The new Calibra digital wallet promises eventually to give Facebook opportunities to build financial services into its offerings, offer to expand its own commerce and let more small businesses buy ads on the social network.
"We certainly see long-term value for Facebook," Barel said.
Facebook said it would not make any money through Libra or Calibra, but rather was seeking to "drive adoption and scale" before exploring ways to monetize the new system.
Financial information at Calibra will be kept strictly separate from social data on Facebook and won't be used to target ads, Calibra vice president of product Kevin Weil told AFP.
Libra will be a regulated currency, subject to local laws in markets regarding fraud, guarding against money laundering and more, Weil said.
'Watershed' moment?
According to Facebook and its partners, local currencies and Libra may be swapped at currency exchange houses or other businesses.
And the ubiquity of smartphones means digital wallets for Libra could make banking and credit card services and e-commerce available in places where they don't now exist.
Analyst and cryptocurrency investor Lou Kerner said Facebook's move has the potential to open the door for cryptocurrency to a wider public.
"What Facebook is really good at, is making things really simple to use," Kerner told AFP.
"And that's what is super exciting for the crypto industry, is somebody comes along who understands user experience and has billions of users that they can roll this out to."
Cryptocurrency and Facebook logo are seen together in this photo. Photo: IC
https://youtu.be/eAPLA4oy7Ks
Experts raise concerns over privacy and regulation
Facebook unveiled plans Tuesday for a new global cryptocurrency called Libra, pledging to deliver stable virtual money that lives on smartphones and could bring over a billion "unbanked" people into the financial system.
The Libra coin plan, backed by financial and nonprofit partners, represents an ambitious new initiative for the world's biggest social network with the potential to bring crypto-money out of the shadows and into the mainstream.
Facebook and some two dozen partners released a prototype of Libra as an open source code for developers interested in weaving it into apps, services or businesses ahead of a rollout as global digital money next year.
The nonprofit Libra Association based in Geneva will oversee the blockchain-based coin, maintaining a real-world asset reserve to keep its value stable.
The Libra Association's Dante Disparte said it could offer online commerce and financial services at minimal cost to more than a billion "unbanked" people - adults without bank accounts or those who use services outside the banking system such as payday loans to make ends meet.
"We believe if you give people access to money and opportunity at the lowest cost, the way the internet itself did in the past with information, you can create a lot more stability than we have had up until now," Disparte, head of policy and communications, told AFP.
Facebook will be just one voice among many in the association, but is separately building a digital wallet called Calibra.
"We view this as a complement to Facebook's mission to connect people wherever they are; that includes allowing them to exchange value," Calibra vice president of operations Tomer Barel told AFP.
"Many people who use Facebook are in countries where there are barriers to banking or credit."
But the move raised questions about how such a new money would be regulated, with one lawmaker calling for a pause on Libra.
"Given the company's troubled past, I am requesting that Facebook agree to a moratorium on any movement forward on developing a cryptocurrency until Congress and regulators have the opportunity to examine these issues," said Maxine Waters, chair of the financial services committee in the US House of Representatives.
Meanwhile French Finance Minister Bruno le Maire said such digital money could never replace sovereign currencies.
"The aspect of sovereignty must stay in the hands of states and not private companies which respond to private interests," Le Maire told Europe 1 radio.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Facebook's new currency would have to withstand scrutiny of its operational resilience and not allow itself to be used for money laundering or terror financing.
ING economists Teunis Brosens and Carlo Cocuzzo said in a research note it was not clear what Libra was or how it might be overseen while US Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat and banking committee member, voiced concerns over Facebook's checkered record on protecting users' privacy.
Backed by real cash
Libra Association debuted with 28 members including Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, Kiva, PayPal, Lyft, Uber and Women's World Banking.
Calibra is being built into Facebook's Messenger and WhatsApp with a goal of letting users send Libra as easily as they might fire off a text message.
Libra learned from the many other cryptocurrencies that have preceded it such as bitcoin and is designed to avoid the roller-coaster valuations that have attracted speculation and caused ruin.
Real-world currency will go into a reserve backing the digital money, the value of which will mirror stable currencies such as the US dollar and the euro, according to its creators.
"It is backed by a reserve of assets that ensures utility and low volatility," Barel said.
The Libra Association will be the only entity able to "mint or burn" the digital currency, maintaining supply in tune with demand and assets in reserve, according to Barel.
"It is not about trusting Facebook, it is effectively trust in the association's founding organizations that this is independent and democratic," Disparte said.
New directions
The launch comes with Facebook seeking to move past a series of lapses on privacy and data protection that have tarnished its image and sparked scrutiny from regulators around the world.
Chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has promised a new direction for Facebook built around smaller groups, private messaging and payments.
The new Calibra digital wallet promises eventually to give Facebook opportunities to build financial services into its offerings, offer to expand its own commerce and let more small businesses buy ads on the social network.
"We certainly see long-term value for Facebook," Barel said.
Facebook said it would not make any money through Libra or Calibra, but rather was seeking to "drive adoption and scale" before exploring ways to monetize the new system.
Financial information at Calibra will be kept strictly separate from social data on Facebook and won't be used to target ads, Calibra vice president of product Kevin Weil told AFP.
Libra will be a regulated currency, subject to local laws in markets regarding fraud, guarding against money laundering and more, Weil said.
'Watershed' moment?
According to Facebook and its partners, local currencies and Libra may be swapped at currency exchange houses or other businesses.
And the ubiquity of smartphones means digital wallets for Libra could make banking and credit card services and e-commerce available in places where they don't now exist.
Analyst and cryptocurrency investor Lou Kerner said Facebook's move has the potential to open the door for cryptocurrency to a wider public.
"What Facebook is really good at, is making things really simple to use," Kerner told AFP.
"And that's what is super exciting for the crypto industry, is somebody comes along who understands user experience and has billions of users that they can roll this out to."
Jerome Powell
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Currency Traders on Front Line as Markets Stay Wary of U.S. Risk
The final week of 2018 could prove tumultuous for investors as holiday-thinned trading combines with a growing array of pressures on markets.
Traders in the $5.1 trillion-a-day currency market were among the first to respond to a partial U.S. government shutdown and a report that President Donald Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The dollar slipped against its Group-of-10 peers, while the yen, seen by many as a haven, gained for a seventh day.
Treasury futures climbed in early Asian hours before paring their advance. Cash bonds trading was shut in Asia due to a holiday in Japan, the first in a week that will see a number of closures across major markets.
Sentiment in global financial markets has already taken a beating with the S&P 500 Index just recording its worst week in seven years. Increased uncertainty over the leadership of the Fed could add to turmoil along with a partial shutdown of the U.S. government, although assurances from U.S. Treasury Steven Mnuchin about liquidity and the future of the central bank chief may ease some concerns.
The Treasuries yield curve last week moved closer than ever to its first post-crisis inversion and the rally in safer assets dragged the 10-year yield below 2.75 percent for the first time since April. However, given that much of the upheaval is emanating from the U.S., it is not entirely clear whether Treasuries, and also the U.S. dollar, will act as reliable havens should Powell’s leadership face a genuine threat.
Societe Generale SA’s head of U.S. rates strategy Subadra Rajappa said she thinks a change in Fed leadership is “extremely unlikely,” though she’s not ruling out the possibility of the president persuading Powell to “resign.”
“If it comes to that, given the backdrop of the recent government shutdown, investors might be less inclined to treat Treasuries as safe haven assets,” she said by email. “A change in Fed leadership will likely rattle the already-fragile financial markets and further tighten financial conditions.”
Market participants are generally of the view that Powell will not be fired, and senior administration officials say Trump recognizes he doesn’t have that authority. But even continued exploration of the possibility could make for a volatile week.
The market response to a material threat to the Fed’s independence would be complicated, according to Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX research and North America macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. He said near-term uncertainty over the process and politics in a fluid situation would weigh on equity prices and bond yields. The dollar, he said, would likely face multiple opposing forces, but the “near-term response is likely negative on the risk that U.S. economic policy becomes more erratic.”
Kitchen Sink
The Bloomberg Dollar Index was up more than 4 percent in 2018 at the end of last week and is close to its highest level in a year and a half, while the Japanese yen surged around 2 percent last week versus the greenback.
Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, is among the few eyeing the strained relations between the president and the Fed chair with equanimity.
The stock market “has discounted everything but the kitchen sink, including the loss of a Fed Chair who hasn’t been in office for even a year yet,” he said by email.
Given that the Fed is already close to the end of its hiking cycle, the markets won’t melt down if Powell leaves office, according to Rupkey. “They already did,” he said.
Those on the front lines of this week’s opening trade say markets are on a knife edge.
Mind the Machines
“If equity markets fall further, they’re going to set off machine-based selling,” said Saed Abukarsh, the co-founder of Dubai-based hedge fund Ark Capital Management. “The other risk is that experienced traders are on holiday, so the ones left will be trigger happy with every new headline.”
“I can’t see buyers stepping into this market to stem off any selling pressure until January,” said Abukarsh. “So if you need to adjust your books for the year-end with any meaningful size, you’re going to have to pay for it.”
Trump’s two-year stock honeymoon ends with hunt for betrayer
https://youtu.be/co5RmV_AoUs
width="640"
Nobody was happier to take credit for surging stocks than Donald Trump, who touted and tweeted each leg up. Now the bull is on life support and the search for its killer is on.
And while many on Wall Street share the president’s frustration with the man atop his markets enemies list, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, they say Trump himself risks making things worse with too much aggression when equities are one bad session away from a bear market.
“You would think that after coming off of the worst week for the markets since the financial crisis in 2008, he would look to create some stability,” said Chuck Cumello, CEO of Essex Financial Services. “Instead we get the opposite, with this headline and more self-induced uncertainty. This coming from a president who when the market goes up views it as a barometer of his success.”
U.S. stock futures whipsawed Monday and were little changed after swinging from a 0.9 percent gain to a loss of the same magnitude. The equity market closes at 1 p.m. in New York ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Click here to see all of Trump’s tweets on the economy and markets.
Attempts by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to reassure markets that Powell wouldn’t be ousted appeared to have largely removed that as an immediate concern for traders, but the secretary’s tweet Sunday that he called top executives from the six largest U.S. banks to check on their liquidity and lending infrastructure added to anxiety.
To be sure, equities remain solidly higher since Trump took office. Even with its 17 percent drop over the last three months, the S&P 500 has risen 18 percent since Election Day. The Nasdaq Composite Index is up 25 percent with dividends. True, volatility has jumped to a 10-month high, but market turbulence was significantly worse for three long stretches under Barack Obama.
The S&P 500 slumped 7.1 percent last week and the Nasdaq Composite Index spiraled into a bear market. As of 2:31 p.m. in Hong Kong, futures on the S&P 500 were up 0.6 percent while Nasdaq 100 contracts added 0.5 percent.
While Trump seems to have found his villain in Powell, blame is a dubious concept in financial markets, as anyone who has tried to explain the current rout can attest.
Along with the Fed chairman, everything from rising bond yields, trade tariffs, falling bond yields, Brexit, tech valuations and Italian finances have been implicated in the downdraft that has erased $5 trillion from American equity values in three months.
Whatever’s behind it, nothing has been able to stop it. And while many on Wall Street credit the president for helping jump-start the market after taking office, they say he should look in the mirror to see another person creating stress for it right now.
“Trump was gloating how much good he had done for the economy and the market. Now he’s blaming Powell for the decline instead of himself,” said Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Group and a former strategist for Morgan Stanley. “Half his key staff has been fired or quit. The markets are off for a variety of reasons, but most of them have Trump behind them.”
If Trump is bent on getting rid of Powell, there may be ways of doing it that don’t risk kicking a volatile market into hysteria, said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, a senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
“It doesn’t have to be firing, it could be someone else taking Powell’s job. That could be a net positive for the markets,” Hellwig said. “A friendly change in the head of the Fed may cause some turbulence short-term but it may be offset with the markets repricing the risk associated with two rate hikes in 2019.”
For now, the turmoil shows no signs of letting up. In the Nasdaq 100, home to tech giants like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com, there have been 17 sessions with losses greater than 1.5 percent this quarter, the most since 2009. Small caps are down 26 percent from a record, while the Nasdaq Biotech Index has dropped at least 1 percent on seven straight days, the longest streak since its inception in 1993.
It’s been a long time since anyone in the U.S. has lived through this protracted a decline. Including Trump.
”It’s impossible to tease out what the proximate causes are,” said Kevin Caron, a senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors. “The normal ebb and flow of financial markets are all part of the mix. It’s impossible just to point to the chairman as the only input.”
Jerome Powell Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Currency Traders on Front Line as Markets Stay Wary of U.S. Risk
The final week of 2018 could prove tumultuous for investors as holiday-thinned trading combines with a growing array of pressures on markets.
Traders in the $5.1 trillion-a-day currency market were among the first to respond to a partial U.S. government shutdown and a report that President Donald Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The dollar slipped against its Group-of-10 peers, while the yen, seen by many as a haven, gained for a seventh day.
Treasury futures climbed in early Asian hours before paring their advance. Cash bonds trading was shut in Asia due to a holiday in Japan, the first in a week that will see a number of closures across major markets.
Sentiment in global financial markets has already taken a beating with the S&P 500 Index just recording its worst week in seven years. Increased uncertainty over the leadership of the Fed could add to turmoil along with a partial shutdown of the U.S. government, although assurances from U.S. Treasury Steven Mnuchin about liquidity and the future of the central bank chief may ease some concerns.
The Treasuries yield curve last week moved closer than ever to its first post-crisis inversion and the rally in safer assets dragged the 10-year yield below 2.75 percent for the first time since April. However, given that much of the upheaval is emanating from the U.S., it is not entirely clear whether Treasuries, and also the U.S. dollar, will act as reliable havens should Powell’s leadership face a genuine threat.
Societe Generale SA’s head of U.S. rates strategy Subadra Rajappa said she thinks a change in Fed leadership is “extremely unlikely,” though she’s not ruling out the possibility of the president persuading Powell to “resign.”
“If it comes to that, given the backdrop of the recent government shutdown, investors might be less inclined to treat Treasuries as safe haven assets,” she said by email. “A change in Fed leadership will likely rattle the already-fragile financial markets and further tighten financial conditions.”
Market participants are generally of the view that Powell will not be fired, and senior administration officials say Trump recognizes he doesn’t have that authority. But even continued exploration of the possibility could make for a volatile week.
The market response to a material threat to the Fed’s independence would be complicated, according to Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX research and North America macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. He said near-term uncertainty over the process and politics in a fluid situation would weigh on equity prices and bond yields. The dollar, he said, would likely face multiple opposing forces, but the “near-term response is likely negative on the risk that U.S. economic policy becomes more erratic.”
Kitchen Sink
The Bloomberg Dollar Index was up more than 4 percent in 2018 at the end of last week and is close to its highest level in a year and a half, while the Japanese yen surged around 2 percent last week versus the greenback.
Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, is among the few eyeing the strained relations between the president and the Fed chair with equanimity.
The stock market “has discounted everything but the kitchen sink, including the loss of a Fed Chair who hasn’t been in office for even a year yet,” he said by email.
Given that the Fed is already close to the end of its hiking cycle, the markets won’t melt down if Powell leaves office, according to Rupkey. “They already did,” he said.
Those on the front lines of this week’s opening trade say markets are on a knife edge.
Mind the Machines
“If equity markets fall further, they’re going to set off machine-based selling,” said Saed Abukarsh, the co-founder of Dubai-based hedge fund Ark Capital Management. “The other risk is that experienced traders are on holiday, so the ones left will be trigger happy with every new headline.”
“I can’t see buyers stepping into this market to stem off any selling pressure until January,” said Abukarsh. “So if you need to adjust your books for the year-end with any meaningful size, you’re going to have to pay for it.”
Trump’s two-year stock honeymoon ends with hunt for betrayer
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Nobody was happier to take credit for surging stocks than Donald Trump, who touted and tweeted each leg up. Now the bull is on life support and the search for its killer is on.
And while many on Wall Street share the president’s frustration with the man atop his markets enemies list, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, they say Trump himself risks making things worse with too much aggression when equities are one bad session away from a bear market.
“You would think that after coming off of the worst week for the markets since the financial crisis in 2008, he would look to create some stability,” said Chuck Cumello, CEO of Essex Financial Services. “Instead we get the opposite, with this headline and more self-induced uncertainty. This coming from a president who when the market goes up views it as a barometer of his success.”
U.S. stock futures whipsawed Monday and were little changed after swinging from a 0.9 percent gain to a loss of the same magnitude. The equity market closes at 1 p.m. in New York ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Click here to see all of Trump’s tweets on the economy and markets.
Attempts by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to reassure markets that Powell wouldn’t be ousted appeared to have largely removed that as an immediate concern for traders, but the secretary’s tweet Sunday that he called top executives from the six largest U.S. banks to check on their liquidity and lending infrastructure added to anxiety.
To be sure, equities remain solidly higher since Trump took office. Even with its 17 percent drop over the last three months, the S&P 500 has risen 18 percent since Election Day. The Nasdaq Composite Index is up 25 percent with dividends. True, volatility has jumped to a 10-month high, but market turbulence was significantly worse for three long stretches under Barack Obama.
The S&P 500 slumped 7.1 percent last week and the Nasdaq Composite Index spiraled into a bear market. As of 2:31 p.m. in Hong Kong, futures on the S&P 500 were up 0.6 percent while Nasdaq 100 contracts added 0.5 percent.
While Trump seems to have found his villain in Powell, blame is a dubious concept in financial markets, as anyone who has tried to explain the current rout can attest.
Along with the Fed chairman, everything from rising bond yields, trade tariffs, falling bond yields, Brexit, tech valuations and Italian finances have been implicated in the downdraft that has erased $5 trillion from American equity values in three months.
Whatever’s behind it, nothing has been able to stop it. And while many on Wall Street credit the president for helping jump-start the market after taking office, they say he should look in the mirror to see another person creating stress for it right now.
“Trump was gloating how much good he had done for the economy and the market. Now he’s blaming Powell for the decline instead of himself,” said Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Group and a former strategist for Morgan Stanley. “Half his key staff has been fired or quit. The markets are off for a variety of reasons, but most of them have Trump behind them.”
If Trump is bent on getting rid of Powell, there may be ways of doing it that don’t risk kicking a volatile market into hysteria, said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, a senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.
“It doesn’t have to be firing, it could be someone else taking Powell’s job. That could be a net positive for the markets,” Hellwig said. “A friendly change in the head of the Fed may cause some turbulence short-term but it may be offset with the markets repricing the risk associated with two rate hikes in 2019.”
For now, the turmoil shows no signs of letting up. In the Nasdaq 100, home to tech giants like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com, there have been 17 sessions with losses greater than 1.5 percent this quarter, the most since 2009. Small caps are down 26 percent from a record, while the Nasdaq Biotech Index has dropped at least 1 percent on seven straight days, the longest streak since its inception in 1993.
It’s been a long time since anyone in the U.S. has lived through this protracted a decline. Including Trump.
”It’s impossible to tease out what the proximate causes are,” said Kevin Caron, a senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors. “The normal ebb and flow of financial markets are all part of the mix. It’s impossible just to point to the chairman as the only input.”
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