Heralding the Golden Age of Cryptocurrency

 ■ Presidentelect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment

■ Analysts projecting Bitcoin to reach US$200,000 by end-2025

■ The outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, but risks remain

THE cryptocurrency world is buzzing with speculation that bitcoin could reach an unprecedented US$200,000 by 2025. While bitcoin has yet to stabilise around the US$100,000 mark, its meteoric rise in 2024 has emboldened investors and analysts to project a bullish future for the world’s leading digital asset.

Bitwise Asset Management, a prominent voice in the crypto sphere, has described the upcoming year as the Golden Age of Crypto.

According to the firm, the regulatory landscape in the United States has significantly improved following the 2024 US elections. President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of cryptocurrencies marks a pivotal moment.

“We believe we are entering the Golden Age of Crypto,” Bitwise analysts, led by chief investment officer Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen, state in the group’s report.

Bitwise expects Crypto’s magnificent three – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solanato – to hit new all-time highs in 2025, with bitcoin leading the rise to trade above US$200,000.

In addition to Bitwise, other analysts projecting bitcoin to reach US$200,000 include Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered, and analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani.

Kendrick forecasts that bitcoin could hit this milestone by the end of 2025, driven by institutional investments in bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFS).

In a recent note, he stated that Standard Chartered’s target of US$200,000 by 2025 is “achievable”, adding: “We would become even more bullish if bitcoin experienced accelerated adoption by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds, or the establishment of a potential US strategic reserve fund.

“We anticipate institutional flows to continue at or exceed the pace set in 2024. Microstrategy, for instance, is ahead of its Us$42bil threeyear plan, suggesting its purchases in 2025 will likely match or surpass those of 2024.”

Meanwhile, Bernstein’s analysts attribute their bitcoin price target of US$200,000 by end-2025 to unprecedented demand stemming from spot bitcoin ETFS managed by leading asset managers, according to media reports.

Trump effect

Essentially, crypto has emerged as a clear winner in the 2024 US elections, giving it a brighter regulatory outlook in the United States, Bitwise notes.

For one thing, Trump has announced plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve and nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s earlier comment that “crypto is about freedom and the crypto economy is here to stay” reflects the administration’s pro-crypto stance. The reshuffling of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has historically taken a sceptical view of digital assets, adds another layer of optimism.

Similarly, Bernstein analysts attribute bitcoin’s rise to Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies. They point out that his plan to position the United States as a global leader in the crypto space and his choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto advocate, to lead the SEC have bolstered market confidence.

Record highs

Bitcoin has since cooled to below US$95,000 at the time of writing, after reaching an alltime high of US$103,992 earlier this month.

This marks a 141.72% increase year-to-date as of Dec 6, 2024. According to Bitwise, the surge was largely driven by the US launch of spot bitcoin ETFS, which set records with Us$33.6bil in inflows within their first year.

Other crypto assets, including Ethereum and Solana, also posted substantial year-to-date gains of 75.77% and 127.71%, respectively. This performance highlights how cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin, ethereum and solana, have outpaced all major asset classes in 2024.

Crypto equities mirrored this bullish trend. Companies like Microstrategy and Coinbase saw their shares skyrocket by 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively. In comparison, traditional assets such as the S&P 500 and gold returned 28.07% and 27.65% over the same period, highlighting crypto’s dominance.

Catalysts for next milestone

The factors driving bitcoin’s trajectory towards US$200,000 are multifaceted, Bitwise highlights. The launch of bitcoin

ETFS in 2024 shattered expectations, and Bitwise believes 2025 will see even greater inflows.

“When US spot bitcoin ETFS launched in January 2024, ETF experts forecast the group to see Us$5bil to Us$15bil of inflows in their first year. They passed the higher end of that range within the first six months.

“Since launching, the record-setting ETFS have gathered Us$33.6bil in inflows. We expect 2025’s inflows to top that,” Bitwise says.

Drawing a parallel with gold ETFS launched in 2004, Bitwise notes that ETF inflows typically accelerate in subsequent years.

“The best historical analogy we have for the bitcoin ETF launch is the launch of gold ETFS in 2004. Flows petering out would be unusual,” it explains.

At present, major financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America have yet to fully embrace bitcoin ETFS.

Bitwise anticipates this to change in 2025, unlocking a wave of institutional investments. “The trillions of dollars these firms manage will start flowing into bitcoin ETFS,” Bitwise predicts.

Risk tolerance

While bitcoin remains the focal point, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana are also poised for substantial gains in 2025. Bitwise’s price targets for Ethereum and Solana are US$7,000 and US$750, respectively.

Ethereum, despite its impressive 2024 performance, has faced competition from fastergrowing programmable blockchains.

However, Bitwise anticipates a “narrative shift” as activity on

Layer 2 blockchains and spot Ethereum ETFS gain traction.

Solana’s resurgence, driven by memecoin mania in 2024, is also expected to continue as serious projects migrate to its network, it says.

Meanwhile, JP Morgan points out that the role of crypto in portfolio construction is mostly a function of risk tolerance.

“Cryptocurrencies are inherently unpredictable: there is little visibility into future price movements and blockchain technology, while exciting, also has few barriers to entry, meaning tokens can become obsolete (and therefore worthless) as new ones enter the market with improved functionality,” the US asset management company cautions.

“As a result, for most investors, any allocation to crypto in a portfolio should be kept both small enough to ensure that even in the event of a significant sell-off it does not derail overall portfolio objectives and well diversified,” it adds.

While the outlook for bitcoin and the broader crypto market is overwhelmingly positive, risks remain.

Regulatory clarity, though improving, is still a work in progress.

The global economic environment, including interest-rate policies and geopolitical tensions, could also impact investor sentiment.

However, the convergence of favourable regulatory developments, institutional adoption and technological advancements positions bitcoin as a strong contender to achieve new heights, potentially reshaping the global financial landscape.

By CECILIA kok cecilia_kok@thestar.com.my

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Charged with crypto ransom, The dark allure of crypto-currency

 Six accused of abducting Chinese national with four others at large

SEPANG: A married couple and four others have been charged with kidnapping a Chinese national last month and demanding a ransom of USDT1mil (RM4.44mil) in cryptocurrency.

Chen Jun Hiong, 28; Law Han Wei, 28; Dhinnesh Tan Kin Yuan, 29; Jong Li Jiat, 25; and husband and wife Loh Wei Jian and Wong Xiao Yen, both 29; pleaded not guilty to the charges before Sessions Court judge Amir Affendy Hamzah here yesterday.

According to the charge sheet, the six, along with four other individuals still at large, are accused of wrongfully detaining the Chinese man for a ransom amounting to USDT1,007,696.

USDT is the symbol for Tether, a cryptocurrency that is pegged to the US dollar.

The offence was allegedly committed at the Cyberjaya exit of the Maju Expressway (MEX) on July 11 at about 11am.

The charges under Section 3 (1) of the Kidnapping Act 1961, read together with Section 34 of the Penal Code, provide for a minimum prison sentence of 30 years or a maximum of 40 years and caning, if convicted.

The prosecution was handled by deputy public prosecutor Mohamed Wafi Husain while the accused were represented by counsels G. Freda Sabapathy (Chen), Mohd Zali Shaari (Law), Nur Aminahtul Mardiah Md Nor (Tan), P. Haresh (Jong) and Bernard Francis (Loh and Wong), Bernama reported.During the proceedings, Mohamed Wafi did not propose any bail as the offence is non- bailable.

However, each defence counsel requested bail for their client, which the court rejected.

“After considering all arguments and the nature of the charges, the court has decided that bail will not be granted,” the judge said, setting Oct 8 for the submission of documents.

Earlier this week, it was reported that police are still tracking down four more suspects believed to have been involved in the kidnapping near the MEX toll plaza, Cyberjaya, on July 11.

Selangor police chief Datuk Hussein Omar Khan confirmed that the four suspects – three men and a woman – were part of an 18-member gang responsible for planning and executing the kidnapping.

They are believed to still be in the country.

On Aug 3, police shot and killed four suspects in a shootout in Skudai, Johor. The suspects were also believed to be involved in the kidnapping case.

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The dark allure of crypto-currency 

PETALING JAYA: Anonymity, speed and global accessibility are some of the reasons why cybercriminals prefer to demand ransom to be paid in cryptocurrency, say criminologists.

Financial forensics expert Raymon Ram said unlike traditional financial systems, cryptocurrency transactions can occur without intermediaries.

“The irreversible nature of these transactions ensures that once the ransom is paid, victims cannot recover the funds, offering criminals a level of security,” he added.

Raymon also said that by using digital currency, criminals such as kidnappers could easily launder the ransom money by leveraging on the pseudo-anonymity and decentralised nature of cryptocurrency systems.

“After receiving the ransom, typically in popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or stablecoins like USDT, criminals often employ tactics such as mixing services and chain-hopping.

“Mixing services obscure the transaction trail by blending the ransom with other funds, while chain-hopping involves converting the cryptocurrency across different platforms and coins, making it harder to trace.”

Raymon said enforcing strict identity verification and transaction monitoring can make it harder for criminals to launder their illicit gains.

Criminologist Datuk Seri Dr Akhbar Satar agreed, saying that using cryptocurrency as ransom has been some criminals’ modus operandi as it would be harder for authorities to trace them.

Akhbar, who is also Malaysian Association of Certified Fraud Examiners president, said that the recently gazetted Cyber Security Act 2024 would also help in enhancing resilience against emerging threats involving cryptocurrency.ttps://dai.ly/x942lqg

Luno on a growth trajectory

 

PETALING JAYA: The four-year cyclic bitcoin halving event and fresh liquidity, especially institutional money, have driven the cryptocurrency market to fresh highs this year upon gaining more acceptance as an alternative asset class, albeit being a far more volatile one.

But as the drums of war got louder in the Middle East early Sunday, bitcoin was the first to reflect investor sentiment, falling some 9.9% or US$6,714 to a low of US$61,231 before fresh buying saw it trading at US$64,246 as at press time.

The fresh buying is a clear indicator that the crypto market is maturing, said Scarlett Chai, country manager of Luno Malaysia, as it now has made its way to institutional investors via centralised asset fund managers from being an asset class that was previously exclusive to the decentralised community.

The halving event, which is due to happen this week on April 19-20, could also provide price support. Historical data has shown that price corrections typically happen two years after every bitcoin halving, as this trend has been visible in the past three halvings.

However, this cycle looks very different to previous cycles with bitcoin reaching all-time highs near the halving for the first time in its history and with prospects of war as a headwind or even a tailwind.

“It is difficult to ascertain the scale of the upcoming halving’s impact on bitcoin prices. We need to understand that the crypto market, specifically bitcoin, is now different following the inflow of institutional investors. This new liquidity via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) might put the market on a new course,” Chai told StarBiz.

She added that with gold recently breaking its all-time high and should bitcoin be viewed as digital gold, they might share a similar momentum.

Scarlett Chai, Luno Malaysia Country Manager

For some the fresh liquidity, estimated at US$13.8bil year-to-date, and the halving event could be more oxygen to a bubble, which could all end badly with systemic implications to the global financial system.

“The anticipated halving and the increased cash inflow, particularly after the ETF, has driven up cryptocurrency prices. There is little doubt that there is a bubble as there is no intrinsic or underlying value.

“This may simply be a modern version of the Tulip mania,” warned Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, professor of finance at the International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance.

Nevertheless, with cryptocurrency gaining traction in Malaysia, Luno has recently launched its staking option on its trading platform.

Chai said the latest feature on its mobile application platform called staking was something its Malaysian clients had been asking for.

“We are the first regulated exchange to bring staking here. We launched last year and it was a long-awaited feature for the local market. Staking using ethereum is now available and we know it is suitable for the current Malaysian market,” she says.

Chai explains staking is locking up a certain amount of cryptocurrency, in this case ethereum, on the platform while allowing it to participate in a blockchain network. This also means that one’s stake grows and rewards are compounded.

“It’s just like having an asset, you can either hold on to it or lock it up so it grows. Locking it up will help the digital system, which is a computer-based network, become more secure and functional,” she said.

While the coins are being staked, users cannot sell or remove their coins but Luno will allow them to “unstake” from their wallets.

Chai added it took some time for this feature to be approved by the regulatory boards and the group is looking at launching a second coin for this feature.

“We are on track for the launch of a second coin and we believe staking should be made available for more asset classes. With all our features, we aim to make it safe and simple to participate in the cryptocurrency industry,” she said.

Luno Malaysia currently offers an instant buy-and-sell option or an exchange programme, both with distinctive features to suit a user’s risk appetite for investment.

Chai said there are 11 digital assets that have been approved by regulators and using the platform has been made easier and more seamless.

“Users can now use Touch ‘n Go, bank transfers or even FPX to choose which coin they would like to transact from as low as RM1. Then we have the exchange, which is for more sophisticated users, those that know how to read charts to study pricing and are familiar with market trends,” she said.

Chai points out that despite initial concerns on data privacy and the volatility of the cryptocurrency world, the industry has been very popular in Malaysia.

“So far, we’ve got some 840,000 users on the platform. Luno has been around since 2015 but in 2019, we relaunched ourselves in the market under the purview of the Securities Commission’s (SC) guidelines,” she said.

This means there are hard guidelines on how the platform can operate and Luno is answerable to authorities should any concerns arise.

Chai stated last year was a strong learning curve for the group as it showed the crucial role it could play in allowing users to invest in digital assets.

“It became important for us to address and create awareness on scams or “too-good-to-be-true” offerings. And because of this financial literacy is really vital,” she said.

Luno Malaysia has participated in various community events like exhibitions and campaigns where the need to create a better understanding on digital wealth management comes up.

“We look forward to participating in more national scam campaigns with financial institutions and such for educational purposes. We have even been in universities to speak to students and how they can avoid scams,” Chai said.

The most active group on the platform are aged between 30 and 49, Chai notes, because they have higher disposable income, but Luno has seen an increase in downloads and participation by those in the 20 to 29-year age range.

“This is their domain, and Luno targets audiences that are interested in investment and are retail-focused. In the next couple of years, we hope to hit one million users on our platform,” she said.

Meanwhile, Chai noted digital wealth management is just another form of investing, same like bonds or stocks.

“We are moving into an era where there is a blend of traditional finance and digital assets, as more markets worldwide regulate crypto and are catering to people who want to diversify more,” she said.

One piece of advice Chai gives is always start small, make yourself aware of what’s out there and be ready to put in what you can afford to lose.

“With every form of investment, the risk of losing is there. People adjust their portfolios to meet their personal strategy. Never go into an investment without a strategy, because then, you’d be basing it on your emotions and that is not how it should be done,” she advised.

In 2024, Luno users can look forward to more coins being added on the platform, subject to regulatory approval of course.

“We added two coins last year and we are looking at adding another five. We work closely in collaboration with the SC and will continue on that journey with them as we bring more offerings to people in Malaysia,” Chai said.

On top of that, with the aim to maintain the highest levels of security, Luno has introduced monthly proof of reserves reports.

Through this process, the exchange ensures each customer’s assets are maintained on a one-to-one ratio on the platform, illustrating that customer-stored digital assets match with the balance in their Luno wallets.

Chai said as there was no regulatory obligation to publish proof of reserve reports, the group saw an important step to build trust in the crypto space.

“Luno’s 12 million global customers – with over 840,000 of those in Malaysia – can be rest assured that their wallets do contain the crypto stated.”

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Singapore big dreams of becoming a global cryto hub

Singapore plans to emerge as key player

Easing restrictions: A representation of the virtual cryptocurrency bitcoin. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is against clamping down on crypto. — Reuters

 SINGAPORE: Singapore is seeking to cement itself as a key player for cryptocurrency-related businesses as financial centres around the world grapple with approaches to handle one of the fastest growing areas of finance.

“We think the best approach is not to clamp down or ban these things,” said Ravi Menon, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which regulates banks and financial firms.

Instead, MAS is putting in place “strong regulation”, so firms that meet its requirements and address the multitude of risks can operate, he said in an interview.

Nations differ vastly when it comes to how they handle crypto: China has cracked down on large amounts of activity in recent months, Japan only recently allowed dedicated crypto investment funds – though El Salvador has embraced bitcoin as legal tender.

In the United States, while there are an abundance of options for investing in the burgeoning asset class, regulators are concerned about everything from stablecoins to yield-generating products.

“With crypto-based activities, it is basically an investment in a prospective future, the shape of which is not clear at this point,” said Menon, who has helmed the MAS for about a decade.

“But not to get into this game, I think risks Singapore being left behind. Getting early into that game means we can have a head start, and better understand its potential benefits as well as its risks.”

The stakes are high for the small island nation, which has already earned a reputation as a global wealth hub. Singapore must raise its safeguards to counter risks including illicit flows, Menon said.

The city state is “interested in developing crypto technology, understanding blockchain, smart contracts and preparing ourselves for a Web 3.0 world,” he said, referring to the third generation of online services, which will be a key theme during the Singapore Fintech Festival that MAS will host next week.

Menon acknowledged that banks and other financial institutions will face certain challenges with the decentralisation of finance. Still, Singapore wants to be “well positioned” for 2030 when “an economy of tokenisation” may come, he said.

Singapore isn’t the only place with crypto ambitions. Locations as diverse as Dubai, Miami, El Salvador, Malta and Zug in Switzerland, are also making efforts.

It can be a fine line to tread, given the crypto industry grew up with few regulations, so many players balk at government officials’ attempts to impose guardrails.

Singapore’s approach has attracted crypto firms from Binance Holdings Ltd, which has had a series of run-ins with regulators around the world, to Gemini, a US operator targeting institutional investors, to set up base.

Some 170 companies applied for a MAS licence, taking the total number of firms seeking to operate under its Payment Services Act to about 400, after the law came into effect in January 2020.

Since then, only three crypto firms have received the much-coveted licences, while two were rejected. About 30 withdrew their application after engaging with the regulator. 

Among those approved is the brokerage arm of DBS Group Holdings Ltd, Singapore’s largest bank, which is also a pioneer in setting up a platform for trading of digital tokens while offering tokenisation services.

The regulator is taking time to assess applicants to ensure that they meet its high requirements, Menon said. The MAS has also boosted resources to cope with high volumes of prospective services operators, he said.

“We don’t need 160 of them to set up shop here. Half of them can do so, but with very high standards, that I think is a better outcome,” he said.

Menon said the benefits of having a well-regulated local crypto industry could also extend beyond the financial sector.

“If and when a crypto economy takes off in a way, we want to be one of the leading players,” he said.

“It could help create jobs, create value-add, and I think more than the financial sector, the other sectors of the economy will potentially gain.” — Bloomberg

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