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Showing posts with label New World order. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New World order. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

International community must take action to oppose the 'new Cold War'

 

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

If recent developments in the three major areas of politics and diplomacy, international trade and economics, and military in the US are looked at together, there will be a chilling discovery. This week, the leaders of the US, Japan, and South Korea will hold a meeting at Camp David, a retreat of US presidents. This kind of summit is the first in the history of these three countries, and its target against China is no longer concealed. According to reports from Japanese media, Japan and the US will also agree this week to jointly develop an interceptor missile "to counter hypersonic warheads being developed by China, Russia and North Korea." As for the executive order on introducing investment restrictions on China recently signed by US President Joe Biden, its negative impacts are spreading and fermenting.

The actions and policy measures of the US mentioned above are all marked by a strong "new Cold War" color and exhibit a trend of continuity and escalating intensity. Can they be characterized as "new Cold War" thinking or actions? This can be discerned through the following four criteria. First, is it confrontational zero-sum competition or cooperative mutual benefit? Second, does it involve ideological delineation or equal exchange, mutual learning, and peaceful coexistence among different civilizations? Third, does it create cliques and alliances for confrontation or does it promote openness, inclusivity, and the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind? Fourth, does it resort to containment and suppression against perceived competitors, or does it engage in benign competition within the scope of international rules and principles? Upon comparison, the answer becomes self-evident.

Just as the drumbeats of the "new Cold War" are becoming more frequent and the smell of gunpowder more suffocating, prominent figures in the White House, including President Biden, have been emphasizing on various occasions that the US "does not seek a "new Cold War"," that "the US must reject neo-containment," and that "Washington should learn from the lessons of the Cold War and the old Cold War construct of blocs is not coherent." This has created a strange scene where there is not just a departure but even a contradiction between the actions and statements of the US, as well as between US self-assessment and the real impressions of the outside world about it. This issue goes beyond American hypocrisy or lack of self-awareness; it harbors a significant underlying risk.

There are at least two possibilities. The first one is that the US knows it is engaged in a "new Cold War" and is well aware that people all around the world, including Americans, strongly oppose and are deeply concerned about a "new Cold War." In other words, the US realizes that this is a highly risky undertaking and therefore would never admit to it. Instead, it might label its actions with a new term to deceive the world.

The second scenario is that the US has actually initiated a "new Cold War," but it does not really think that it is engaging in a "new Cold War." This will have more serious consequences than the first scenario, because the US not only refuses to make a reflection and change its course, but also will gain a stronger "moral drive" from self-hypnosis. In order to wake the US up from its pretended or genuine sleep, the international community needs to strengthen its resistance and criticism against the US' initiation of a "new Cold War" and take actions.

Regardless of what the US diplomatic strategists say or think, their actions speak louder. When faced with international challenges, especially when dealing with countries that have similar power with the US but different political and cultural backgrounds from the US, they habitually and unconsciously refer to the Cold War experience. They sometimes even directly resort to Cold War tactics, without taking off the "Cold War glasses" to view the world and era that have already undergone tremendous changes, even though they may also know that this is wrong and dangerous.

An article in the American magazine Foreign Affairs points out that Cold War history has become a straitjacket constraining how Americans perceive the world, including making Americans struggle to understand gray areas between friend and foe, making negotiations with rivals appear to carry impossibly high stakes and making it hard for Americans to imagine a less-militarized foreign policy.

The deeper the misunderstandings of history and reality, the stronger the limitations and misguidance of Cold War thinking on American foreign policy decision-makers. Binary thinking makes it impossible to understand the complexity and richness of a multipolar world, and severely lacks imagination for the future. The diplomatic strategies and approaches formulated based on this have distorted international politics.

More specifically, Washington has misunderstood history, misjudged the times, and misunderstood the Communist Party of China and the Chinese people. The destructive power of "new Cold War" is world-class, and the fate of all humanity stands at a crossroads. American political elites may believe that the US was the winner of the Cold War, which is controversial, but it is certain that the US cannot be the winner of the "new Cold War" and must bear historical responsibility for today's choices.

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Sunday, March 29, 2020

How China and US can end their rivalry

https://youtu.be/Pucoeb2KKOQ

How China can end US rivalry and realise its vision of a shared future for humanity, as the world struggles with the pandemic

The US-China rivalry only feeds the pandemic, when global cooperation is needed. This is where China’s vision of a shared destiny for humanity can be useful, provided it can be elevated above suspicions of a Beijing power grab


I cannot imagine richer nutrients for the novel coronavirus to reproduce and spread, to flourish globally, than the United States and China continuing to descend into unabashed and undisguised rivalry, with escalating accusations each against the other. Nourish the virus with US-China competition. Or starve the virus with US-China cooperation.

Never has such cooperation been needed more urgently – to battle and contain the pandemic and to sustain and bolster the world economy. Containing the global pandemic, like bolstering the global economy, depends on US-China collaboration.

. If climate change is the world’s most intractable chronic problem, then Covid-19 is the world’s most severe acute problem. My two favourite countries have a choice: either work together to fight the pandemic, developing drugs and vaccines to kill and stop Covid-19, or suffer an out-of-control global pandemic and a chain-reaction cratering of the global economy. Truly, nations will fight the virus and collectively win, or fight each other and collectively lose.

Although China has well-earned respect for curbing its outbreak, there is room for critique, correction and improvement. President Xi Jinping stresses drawing lessons from the outbreak to improve the country's systems for major epidemic control, prevention and public health emergency management.

Apropos of the pandemic, Xi’s repeated call to build “a community with a shared future for all humanity” is a grand vision with multiple applications. For seven years, it has driven foreign policy, especially the Belt and Road Initiative , helping to rectify global imbalances.

https://youtu.be/v34MfJJAZA0

While fighting disease or controlling pandemics have always been a “shared future” benefit, it was always tucked within lists of other benefits, such as climate control, preventing terrorism, interdicting drugs and the like. Few ever imagined that a pandemic could become so grave so fast. But as the pandemic has burst into planetary consciousness, it demonstrates viscerally the global criticality of “shared future” thinking.

The challenge for China is to elevate Xi’s vision above what appears to some as competitive positioning or even as a sprint to assert China’s leadership. China’s experience in containing the contagion, which many countries now desperately need, provides just such an opportunity.

By sending “battle-tested” medical teams to countries under siege, China brings to bear experts with contemporary frontline epidemic experience. What is not well appreciated in the tops-of-trees daily recitations of cases and deaths are China’s evolved know-how and the meticulous work of Chinese health care and logistics professionals.

Exporting coronavirus knowledge, China sends medical teams to countries to help fight pandemic https://youtu.be/jTtqB-zVUAw

There is a problem, though. Emotions worldwide are frayed, rubbed raw by the pandemic’s daily-life disruptions, with economic devastation threatening to exceed that of the 2008 global financial crisis. In this toxic psychological environment, when non-stop news, especially in social media, amplifies fantastical, scurrilous, unsubstantiated rumours by insensitive officials or block-brained conspiracy theorists, attitudes harden and antagonisms ossify. Indigenous nationalism flares in vicious circles.

It takes no cleverness to inflame feelings with glib rhetoric or political insults. Rational people must work together, not allow fringe invective to erode the capacity to fight a common enemy.

Containment of the polemic will be more challenging than containment of the coronavirus; the latter likely to burn out before the former. If so, Chinese views of America, and American views of China, are only going to deteriorate further, to the detriment of all. Enlightened leadership should temper, not inflame, indigenous nationalism. We cannot allow mutual exhaustion to be our last hope.

Trump stops calling coronavirus ‘Chinese virus’ and says Asian-Americans not to blame for outbreak https://youtu.be/7DbgSMD847Q

China’s vision of “a community with a shared future for mankind”, exhorting all nations to act for the common good, fits our turbulent times. For this reason, China should resist finding this phrase turned into a cliché or satire, catalysed inadvertently by endless repetition or forced conformity into a single expression or translation.

Why not encourage various expressions, enabling officials and experts to use their own words, thereby enriching the vision, keeping it fresh and timely?

Originally, the English translation was “a community of common destiny for mankind”, which is more literal and rather elegant. But then, I was told, “destiny” was deemed to be too passive or fatalistic, not sufficiently proactive and positive, which led to the less literal “shared future”. “Shared future” is an evocative phase, reflecting Chinese tradition and offering hope for a better tomorrow.

Yet with constant repetition, “a community with a shared future for mankind” can begin to sound, paradoxically, like an exclusive Chinese mantra, and thereby can begin to elicit, in some countries or cultures, negative emotions, instead of conveying positive contributions.


Labels carry messages – and some interpret China’s phrase as seeking to get the whole world to march under its national banner. This misreads China, but by triggering resistance, the static phrase undermines China’s capacity to help bring about in reality such a community of common destiny or shared future.

China’s vision is a universal message shared by many cultures and China might reach out for similar ideas. China’s challenge is to express the vision in language with which other cultures can identify and feel comfortable supporting.

To be clear, read literally and without bias, a “community with a shared future for mankind” is a powerful exhortation that should benefit the world. That is why the phrase should be protected and enriched by also allowing other, diverse English phrases to represent the original Chinese.

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https://youtu.be/S31-qL_Ax5E

The objective is to enable the global community to take collective ownership of the grand vision. Given the global pandemic, the global community must take collective ownership.

Here are three other possible expressions, the first more literal, the second and third taking more explanatory licence: humanity is a community of common destiny (a shared future); humanity’s common destiny (shared future) is the guiding principle of our times; and, recognise humanity’s common destiny (shared future) to build a global community.

What China seeks is what humanity needs, especially with the pandemic, and it behooves people of goodwill everywhere to work together to transform rhetoric into reality. - South China Morning Post.

By Robert Lawrence Kuhn, a public intellectual and international corporate strategist, won the China Reform Friendship Medal (2018)


Robert Lawrence Kuhn is a public intellectual, international corporate strategist and investment banker, and a China political/economics commentator featured on the BBC, CNN, Bloomberg. For more than 25 years, he has worked with China’s leaders. He has published over 30 books, including How China’s Leaders Think (featuring President Xi Jinping), and The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin. He is the host of Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn on CCTV News.

Coronavirus outbreak Coronavirus outbreak: All stories | US-China relations | US-China trade war | US-China trade war: Opinion | US-China trade war: All stories | Belt and Road Initiative | Belt and Road: Comment | China leadership

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Thursday, September 5, 2019

AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order; Singapore tries its own path in clash

THE NEW YORK TIMES , USA TODAY , AND WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee—one of the world’s most respected experts on AI and China—reveals that China has suddenly caught up to the US at an astonishingly rapid and unexpected pace.  


In AI Superpowers, Kai-fu Lee argues powerfully that because of these unprecedented developments in AI, dramatic changes will be happening much sooner than many of us expected. Indeed, as the US-Sino AI competition begins to heat up, Lee urges the US and China to both accept and to embrace the great responsibilities that come with significant technological power. Most experts already say that AI will have a devastating impact on blue-collar jobs. But Lee predicts that Chinese and American AI will have a strong impact on white-collar jobs as well. Is universal basic income the solution? In Lee’s opinion, probably not.  But he provides  a clear description of which jobs will be affected and how soon, which jobs can be enhanced with AI, and most importantly, how we can provide solutions to some of the most profound changes in human history that are coming soon.
 
Kai-Fu Lee Discusses 'AI Superpowers' in San Francisco
 
https://youtu.be/XIs6LB3b2Yo

KAI FU LEE: AI SUPERPOWERS

https://youtu.be/clbSkL3BiRg

Kai-Fu Lee | Full Address & Q&A | Oxford Union

https://youtu.be/8wOqP6fZuto

AI and You: Interview with Kai-Fu Lee

https://youtu.be/d6GrucLLzEw

Chinese tech exec Kai fu Lee on the future of AI

https://youtu.be/PJ24KLVJzkk

https://youtu.be/gsFFipyt6Ns

Singapore tries to find its own path in clash of AI superpowers ...


SINGAPORE (Sept 4): The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is chilling global collaboration that has long driven breakthroughs in technology and science. The tiny island nation of Singapore is trying to carve out an independent role in the clash and demonstrate the advantages of cooperation in fields like artificial intelligence.

It’s a difficult balancing act. The country, with cordial ties to the two superpowers, is fighting against nationalistic forces on both sides. Artificial intelligence is becoming something of a test case for how independent countries will participate in emerging technologies.

China and the U.S. have dominated AI development, raising concerns that other countries will lose out on its benefits and have no voice in devising regulations. Yet Singapore’s government is investing S$500 million (US$360 million) on AI and other digital technologies through 2020 and has attracted Chinese and American companies to the country with policies that support AI research. Singapore’s Communications and Information Minister S. Iswaran jumped into the debate this year, proposing a framework for the ethical use of AI at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“Singapore has an important role to play,” said Lawrence Loh, an associate professor at NUS Business School. “We will never be able to match the technological prowess of the U.S. and China, but there are certain areas where Singapore can take leadership, like using its position to get people to work together.”

Iswaran will elaborate on Singapore’s vision at Bloomberg’s "Sooner Than You Think" technology conference on Thursday. He will kick off an event that will feature speakers from Microsoft Corp, International Business Machines Corp, Temasek Holdings Pte, China AI pioneer SenseTime Group Ltd, as well as Southeast Asia’s leading tech startups Grab Holdings Inc and Gojek.

Singapore has long positioned itself as neutral ground. It’s already home to the Singapore International Arbitration Centre and the Singapore International Commercial Court, forums for international dispute resolution. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual policy speech last month that Singapore will maintain its neutral position and not take sides between the U.S. and China.

The affluent city-state of 5.6 million is not leaving anything to chance, when it comes to future-proofing its economy.

It has set up a dedicated inter-agency task force to study all aspects of AI. And in recent weeks, it granted an AI patent to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd within just three months — a record pace that underlines the country’s determination to move full speed ahead.

“Singapore plays a pivotal role as it facilitates our entry into markets of our interest rapidly,” Benjamin Bai, vice president and chief IP counsel of Alibaba-affiliate Ant Financial, said in a statement released by the Intellectual Property Office of Singapore.

Still, there is skepticism about the country’s prospects. Singapore, like several other countries, is making a genuine push to develop its AI ecosystem, but its effort is tiny compared with the giants, said Kai-Fu Lee, founder of the venture firm Sinovation Ventures.

“Unless Singapore can unify ASEAN and become the undisputed AI leader and supplier in ASEAN countries, its efforts will not lead to a fraction of the U.S. or China,” Lee said in an email.

The government has been stepping up efforts to lure companies working in AI.

Alibaba has opened its first joint research institute outside China in Singapore in collaboration with Nanyang Technological University, while Salesforce.com Inc opened its first AI research centre outside of its research and development hub of Palo Alto, California — adding to a growing list of new research centers including the Singapore Management University’s Centre for AI and Data Governance.

GIC Pte, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, has invested in Canadian AI companies, including Montreal-based Element AI Inc, which has set up an office in the city-state after raising US$102 million in new funding in 2017.

“It’s very hard to see how things will pan out with the trade war,” NUS Business School’s Loh said. “Singapore’s focus should be technology, not geopolitics.”  

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AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order; Singapore tries its own path in clash

THE NEW YORK TIMES, USA TODAY, AND WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER

Dr. Kai-Fu Lee—one of the world’s most respected experts on AI and China—reveals that China has suddenly caught up to the US at an astonishingly rapid and unexpected pace.  


In AI Superpowers, Kai-fu Lee argues powerfully that because of these unprecedented developments in AI, dramatic changes will be happening much sooner than many of us expected. Indeed, as the US-Sino AI competition begins to heat up, Lee urges the US and China to both accept and to embrace the great responsibilities that come with significant technological power. Most experts already say that AI will have a devastating impact on blue-collar jobs. But Lee predicts that Chinese and American AI will have a strong impact on white-collar jobs as well. Is universal basic income the solution? In Lee’s opinion, probably not.  But he provides  a clear description of which jobs will be affected and how soon, which jobs can be enhanced with AI, and most importantly, how we can provide solutions to some of the most profound changes in human history that are coming soon.
 
Kai-Fu Lee Discusses 'AI Superpowers' in San Francisco
 
https://youtu.be/XIs6LB3b2Yo

KAI FU LEE: AI SUPERPOWERS

https://youtu.be/clbSkL3BiRg

Kai-Fu Lee | Full Address & Q&A | Oxford Union

https://youtu.be/8wOqP6fZuto

AI and You: Interview with Kai-Fu Lee

https://youtu.be/d6GrucLLzEw

Chinese tech exec Kai fu Lee on the future of AI

https://youtu.be/PJ24KLVJzkk

https://youtu.be/gsFFipyt6Ns

Singapore tries to find its own path in clash of AI superpowers ...


SINGAPORE (Sept 4): The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is chilling global collaboration that has long driven breakthroughs in technology and science. The tiny island nation of Singapore is trying to carve out an independent role in the clash and demonstrate the advantages of cooperation in fields like artificial intelligence.

It’s a difficult balancing act. The country, with cordial ties to the two superpowers, is fighting against nationalistic forces on both sides. Artificial intelligence is becoming something of a test case for how independent countries will participate in emerging technologies.

China and the U.S. have dominated AI development, raising concerns that other countries will lose out on its benefits and have no voice in devising regulations. Yet Singapore’s government is investing S$500 million (US$360 million) on AI and other digital technologies through 2020 and has attracted Chinese and American companies to the country with policies that support AI research. Singapore’s Communications and Information Minister S. Iswaran jumped into the debate this year, proposing a framework for the ethical use of AI at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“Singapore has an important role to play,” said Lawrence Loh, an associate professor at NUS Business School. “We will never be able to match the technological prowess of the U.S. and China, but there are certain areas where Singapore can take leadership, like using its position to get people to work together.”

Iswaran will elaborate on Singapore’s vision at Bloomberg’s "Sooner Than You Think" technology conference on Thursday. He will kick off an event that will feature speakers from Microsoft Corp, International Business Machines Corp, Temasek Holdings Pte, China AI pioneer SenseTime Group Ltd, as well as Southeast Asia’s leading tech startups Grab Holdings Inc and Gojek.

Singapore has long positioned itself as neutral ground. It’s already home to the Singapore International Arbitration Centre and the Singapore International Commercial Court, forums for international dispute resolution. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his annual policy speech last month that Singapore will maintain its neutral position and not take sides between the U.S. and China.

The affluent city-state of 5.6 million is not leaving anything to chance, when it comes to future-proofing its economy.

It has set up a dedicated inter-agency task force to study all aspects of AI. And in recent weeks, it granted an AI patent to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd within just three months — a record pace that underlines the country’s determination to move full speed ahead.

“Singapore plays a pivotal role as it facilitates our entry into markets of our interest rapidly,” Benjamin Bai, vice president and chief IP counsel of Alibaba-affiliate Ant Financial, said in a statement released by the Intellectual Property Office of Singapore.

Still, there is skepticism about the country’s prospects. Singapore, like several other countries, is making a genuine push to develop its AI ecosystem, but its effort is tiny compared with the giants, said Kai-Fu Lee, founder of the venture firm Sinovation Ventures.

“Unless Singapore can unify ASEAN and become the undisputed AI leader and supplier in ASEAN countries, its efforts will not lead to a fraction of the U.S. or China,” Lee said in an email.

The government has been stepping up efforts to lure companies working in AI.

Alibaba has opened its first joint research institute outside China in Singapore in collaboration with Nanyang Technological University, while Salesforce.com Inc opened its first AI research centre outside of its research and development hub of Palo Alto, California — adding to a growing list of new research centers including the Singapore Management University’s Centre for AI and Data Governance.

GIC Pte, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, has invested in Canadian AI companies, including Montreal-based Element AI Inc, which has set up an office in the city-state after raising US$102 million in new funding in 2017.

“It’s very hard to see how things will pan out with the trade war,” NUS Business School’s Loh said. “Singapore’s focus should be technology, not geopolitics.”  

Source link


Related:

Zero-sum mind-set won't inspire US AI development

Rational voices have been calling for China-US cooperation in AI, an area where they have overlapping interests. Instead of viewing AI with a zero-sum mind-set, the US should embrace healthy competition with China for the good of the world.



Intellectual Property and 'Made In China 2025

https://youtu.be/vFA1Bd5e8AU

How does China protect intellectual property rights?



https://youtu.be/H3fzMtHqj3M




R&D crucial to developing new technology

Huawei's story shows that research and development is crucial to developing new technology. As China takes the fast lane of technological development, we would like to see more Chinese high-tech enterprises follow the footsteps of Huawei to create more technology and tangible results, which will benefit not only China but also the whole world.

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Saturday, May 25, 2019

How this US-China trade war will remake the world

New world order: People visit the bund in front of Shanghai's financial district of Pudong. The US-China trade war looks like the beginning of a profound break in the global order. As China and the United form two opposing economic and geopolitical coalitions, the rest of the world will be forced to choose. - Reuters

President Donald Trump has long said the goal of his trade policy is simply to get better deals for Americans. But as the trade war intensifies, it seems increasingly likely that his policies will lead to something more: a lasting break with China and a new alignment of global power.

First, consider the evidence for the break.

The current impasse in trade talks was sparked by a sudden change in terms on the part of the Chinese negotiators.

This change likely caught the administration off guard, but Trump’s response is notable: He immediately ramped up tariffs, then announced a ban on business with Chinese telecommunications firm and national champion Huawei Technologies Co.

These actions have backed Chinese President Xi Jinping into a corner and turned the trade dispute into a matter of Chinese national pride.

This limits the possibility not only of a quick resolution, but also of the chances that the Chinese people will accept any concessions to the US.

Trump’s handling of this situation stands in sharp contrast to his negotiating strategy on other issues.

Though the president railed against NAFTA throughout his campaign, he’s touted its replacement as a huge success, even though it is only cosmetically different, and has been willing to suspend his tariffs on Canada and Mexico to ease its passage through Congress.

Likewise, Trump has been more than willing to trumpet his successful negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un even though the evidence for such success is thin.

Meanwhile, the president’s tough talk against Europe and Japan for their trade practices, and against NATO allies for their defence spending, has been mostly bluster.

When it comes to China, however, the president is doubling down.

He has encouraged US supply chains to move out of China and established subsidy programmes to cushion farmers from the effects of a protracted trade war.

Which leads to the long-term implications of this battle. A protracted trade war would almost guarantee a global realignment.

Supply chains that run through both the US and China would constantly be subject to disruptions, so global manufacturers would have to decide whether to pursue an America-centric or China-centric strategy.

That’s already the case in the digital sphere, where Chinese restrictions on the Internet divide the world into two parts: that which is served by US tech giants such as Google and Facebook, and that which relies on Chinese firms such as Baidu and WeChat.

China’s threat to cut off US access to rare-earth minerals points to a potential bifurcation in commodities markets as well.

The trend is clear: As China’s economic and geopolitical power grows, countries within China’s sphere of influence will feel increasing pressure to integrate their economies with Chinese supply chains and multinationals rather than American ones.

At the same time, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Tyler Cowen points out, the rise of China is a main driver of populist sentiment in the UK and Australia.

This creates political pressure in those countries for further isolation from China.

In the US, Trump has made it clear that he sees the trade war with China as politically advantageous for him, and he’s probably right.

It’s probably also true that this anti-China sentiment will outlast him.

Break in global order

Add up all these factors, and the US-China trade war looks like the beginning of a profound break in the global order. As China and the US form two opposing economic and geopolitical coalitions, the rest of the world will be forced to choose.

Maybe the European Union can form a third unaligned pole, as France and Germany’s membership in the EU (and the UK’s absence from it) provides them with the negotiating power to avoid falling under the Chinese or American sphere of influence.

Of course, in some ways this type of multipolar alignment would be a return to the past. The dual-superpower world that existed for much of the second half of the 20th century was always an exception, and the era of American supremacy that began after the collapse of the Soviet Union was never going to last.

Until recently, however, a new kind of bipolar arrangement seemed possible: a kind of competitive partnership between China and the US, with the EU playing a supporting role.

The events of the last few weeks have left that looking increasingly unlikely. — Bloomberg Opinion

By Karl W. Smith , a former assistant professor of economics at the University of North Carolina’s school of government.

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Read more : 

The Tech Cold War Has Begun - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/.../huawei-supply-freeze-points-to-u-s-china-tech-cold-w...

5 days ago - China now has no choice but to pursue technological independence, and will burn the cash to achieve it. ... A similar process took place when ZTE Corp. was banned from buying U.S. products after reneging on a deal to settle charges of breaking trade sanctions. ... The U.S. ended up 

 

Another Long March begins

Chinese President Xi Jinping said that "we are on a new Long March now" during his inspection tour of Jiangxi Province this week and encouraged people to gain strength from the spirit of the Long March to overcome difficulties and obstacles, China's state media outlets reported on Thursday.

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How this US-China trade war will remake the world

New world order: People visit the bund in front of Shanghai's financial district of Pudong. The US-China trade war looks like the beginning of a profound break in the global order. As China and the United form two opposing economic and geopolitical coalitions, the rest of the world will be forced to choose. - Reuters

President Donald Trump has long said the goal of his trade policy is simply to get better deals for Americans. But as the trade war intensifies, it seems increasingly likely that his policies will lead to something more: a lasting break with China and a new alignment of global power.

First, consider the evidence for the break.

The current impasse in trade talks was sparked by a sudden change in terms on the part of the Chinese negotiators.

This change likely caught the administration off guard, but Trump’s response is notable: He immediately ramped up tariffs, then announced a ban on business with Chinese telecommunications firm and national champion Huawei Technologies Co.

These actions have backed Chinese President Xi Jinping into a corner and turned the trade dispute into a matter of Chinese national pride.

This limits the possibility not only of a quick resolution, but also of the chances that the Chinese people will accept any concessions to the US.

Trump’s handling of this situation stands in sharp contrast to his negotiating strategy on other issues.

Though the president railed against NAFTA throughout his campaign, he’s touted its replacement as a huge success, even though it is only cosmetically different, and has been willing to suspend his tariffs on Canada and Mexico to ease its passage through Congress.

Likewise, Trump has been more than willing to trumpet his successful negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un even though the evidence for such success is thin.

Meanwhile, the president’s tough talk against Europe and Japan for their trade practices, and against NATO allies for their defence spending, has been mostly bluster.

When it comes to China, however, the president is doubling down.

He has encouraged US supply chains to move out of China and established subsidy programmes to cushion farmers from the effects of a protracted trade war.

Which leads to the long-term implications of this battle. A protracted trade war would almost guarantee a global realignment.

Supply chains that run through both the US and China would constantly be subject to disruptions, so global manufacturers would have to decide whether to pursue an America-centric or China-centric strategy.

That’s already the case in the digital sphere, where Chinese restrictions on the Internet divide the world into two parts: that which is served by US tech giants such as Google and Facebook, and that which relies on Chinese firms such as Baidu and WeChat.

China’s threat to cut off US access to rare-earth minerals points to a potential bifurcation in commodities markets as well.

The trend is clear: As China’s economic and geopolitical power grows, countries within China’s sphere of influence will feel increasing pressure to integrate their economies with Chinese supply chains and multinationals rather than American ones.

At the same time, as my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Tyler Cowen points out, the rise of China is a main driver of populist sentiment in the UK and Australia.

This creates political pressure in those countries for further isolation from China.

In the US, Trump has made it clear that he sees the trade war with China as politically advantageous for him, and he’s probably right.

It’s probably also true that this anti-China sentiment will outlast him.

Break in global order

Add up all these factors, and the US-China trade war looks like the beginning of a profound break in the global order. As China and the US form two opposing economic and geopolitical coalitions, the rest of the world will be forced to choose.

Maybe the European Union can form a third unaligned pole, as France and Germany’s membership in the EU (and the UK’s absence from it) provides them with the negotiating power to avoid falling under the Chinese or American sphere of influence.

Of course, in some ways this type of multipolar alignment would be a return to the past. The dual-superpower world that existed for much of the second half of the 20th century was always an exception, and the era of American supremacy that began after the collapse of the Soviet Union was never going to last.

Until recently, however, a new kind of bipolar arrangement seemed possible: a kind of competitive partnership between China and the US, with the EU playing a supporting role.

The events of the last few weeks have left that looking increasingly unlikely. — Bloomberg Opinion

By Karl W. Smith , a former assistant professor of economics at the University of North Carolina’s school of government.

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Read more : 

The Tech Cold War Has Begun - Bloomberg 

China now has no choice but to pursue technological independence, and will burn the cash to achieve it. ... A similar process took place when ZTE Corp. was banned from buying U.S. products after reneging on a deal to settle charges of breaking trade sanctions. ... The U.S. ended up 

 

Another Long March begins

Chinese President Xi Jinping said that "we are on a new Long March now" during his inspection tour of Jiangxi Province this week and encouraged people to gain strength from the spirit of the Long March to overcome difficulties and obstacles, China's state media outlets reported on Thursday.

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