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Showing posts with label The world. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The world. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Experts laud China's economic stability among priorities

Aerial photo taken on Oct 15, 2019, shows a view of the Lujiazui area in Shanghai. [Photo/Xinhua]

 

Impressive development: Joggers at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai. The 5.5% target for economic growth indicates that China’s economy is rebounding after the extensive pandemic-induced lockdowns. — Bloomberg

Experts laud Beijing’s priority on economic stability `

BEIJING: China’s efforts to prioritise its economic stability are significant in many ways, experts say, as the nation’s consistency and policies offer good prospects for benefits through shared development during the post-pandemic recovery.
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On March 5, Premier Li Keqiang delivered the government work report to the fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC), in which he expounded on the “milestone” year 2021 and major tasks ahead.
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Gerald Mbanda, a Rwandan researcher and publisher on China and Africa, said the report was “impressive” as most of the socioeconomic development targets had been achieved and some exceeded their goals.
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China “has offered a great lesson that irrespective of political, economic and racial differences, the world community can enjoy the benefits of shared development, rather than competing in isolation,” Mbanda said.
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He praised China’s commitment to peaceful global development and promoting the shared values of all humanity, both of which have been central in global developmental projects like the Belt and Road Initiative, the mega infrastructure project.

New targets
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The premier also announced a series of targets for China’s development in 2022.
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These include gross domestic product growth of about 5.5%, some 11 million new urban jobs, achieving stable macroeconomic performance, maintaining job security, expanding high-level opening-up and achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality.Muhammad Faisal, a research fellow at the China-Pakistan Study Centre at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, said this year’s NPC session was “significant in many ways for focusing on national economic recovery and growth after the pandemic”.
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“Although the set target of economic growth of around 5.5% is the second-lowest target during the past three decades, it indicates that China’s economy is rebounding after extensive pandemic-induced lockdowns,” he said.
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The scholar welcomed China prioritising its economic stability in 2022, which he called a “crucial year”, by offering new measures like tax cuts for businesses and the construction sector.
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The premier announced a new package of tax refunds and cuts totalling 2.5 trillion yuan (US$395.62bil or RM1.65 trillion) this year to support enterprises. — China Daily/ANN  Source link

Dennis Munene, executive director of the China-Africa Center at the Africa Policy Institute, said the report clearly shows China's commitment to offering its citizens "strategic public goods" to spur economic growth and development in the post-COVID-19 era.
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Munene said the new package of tax-and-fee policies for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises is conducive to improving their cash flow, promoting consumption-driven investment, and further improving the system for refunding value-added tax credits-credits on a consumption tax levied on goods and services at each stage from production to sale.
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Faisal said as China seeks to return to a normal life and mode of production, this year could indicate the easing of restrictions and the adoption of targeted interventions against the pandemic.
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"Premier Li emphasized that local cases must be handled in a targeted manner and the normal order of work and life must be ensured. This is an important statement, considering the extensively enforced measures during the past 24 months," said Faisal.
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Glenn Wijaya, an adviser to the Center for Indonesia-China Studies, welcomed China's consistent efforts in prioritizing the green sector.
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"Green economy is something that is already ingrained (in China).Thus, this is something that is extremely constant throughout. Low carbon is a good illustration of this. It is something that is mandated by law," Wijaya said.
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China "will lead other major nations in reducing carbon emissions, because, unlike other countries, it is consistent throughout, from political pronouncements to laws and regulations that influence businesses," Wijaya said.
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"Although difficult challenges were met, the work report's great achievements give the Chinese people courage and strength to push forward with confidence in the leadership, for the commitment to improving the lives of the people, as well as giving hope that the country is steadily progressing toward realizing the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation," Mbanda said.

Source link
 

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Catalyzing Financial Connectivity through the Belt and Road...

 

Chinese State Councilor and FM Wang Yi held a press conference on the sidelines of the fifth session of the 13th National People's Congress on Monday, where he answered questions related to foreign policy matters. Here are the highlights:

 

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While innocent civilians in Ukraine are suffering from the flames of conflict, which have brought the world under threat of being ripped further apart, some forces, as opposed to fixing the division, are taking advantage of the turbulence to smear China by peddling false information, aiming to "launch a war" against China.

 

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Friday, June 28, 2019

Xi Condemns Bullying, Protectionism Ahead of Meeting With Trump at G20 Summit

Asian member states have grown in prominence as China, India and Indonesia’s economies have boomed over the past two decades. Photo: AFP
https://live.cgtn.com/liveweb/

#XiJinping to meet with Trump in Osaka soon #G20Osaka http://bit.ly/31YYmnB

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-06-28/what-are-the-g-20-leaders-going-to-discuss-at-their-summit-video

https://youtu.be/1-TwQmGYsEA
https://youtu.be/yRm0c_MnlH4
https://youtu.be/WHA2tm7XtP0

  https://youtu.be/wDgV6RORgv4

The world’s most powerful leaders are gathering in Japan for meetings that may set the direction for the global economy and make the difference between war and peace in geopolitical hotspots.

Key things to watch include any signs of a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks, efforts to stem rising tensions between the Trump administration and Iran, and concrete action to lower emissions and reduce plastic pollution in oceans. Major agenda items include President Donald Trump’s meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

China’s President Xi Jinping condemned protectionism and "bullying practices" in a meeting with African leaders ahead of the summit, according to Dai Bing, the foreign ministry’s Director General for African Affairs.

“Any attempt to put one’s own interests first and undermine others’ will not win any popularity,” Xi said, according to Dai.

The comments come a day ahead of Xi’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump as the leaders try to resolve their trade war, as well as other major disputes like Huawei and the South China Sea. - Bloomberg

Read more:


US president warns of Plan B on China trade - Business News


Only sincerity can break trade impasse

Whether there is an agreement or not, China will defend its core interests and will focus on doing its own things well. China is well prepared economically and politically

G20: as China and India draw close, has Trump overplayed his hand?
With Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin displaying increasing bonhomie, the United States will have cause to reflect on its recent trade disputes with ally New Delhi

Merkel arrives at G20 after second shaking scare
German leader, 65, sparked renewed fears for her health after bout of uncontrollable shaking on eve of summit in Japan.

China and Japan try to move to ‘next level’ as Xi state visit confirmed
Chinese president meets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ahead of G20 summit in Osaka, saying he hopes to strengthen ties further.

As G20 host, Japan faces awkward criticism of environmental record
Activists say Japan has fallen behind on reducing plastic consumption and is caving to US pressure to water down language on climate change to achieve a unanimous statement on the issue.
Explainer | Why the G20 summit matters for Asia (and Asean)
Asia’s major economies have become increasingly important at the multilateral forum, which experts say is an opportunity for the likes of China and Japan to step into leadership roles formerly dominated by the West.

Xi calls for another US-North Korea nuclear summit
Kim still committed to goal of denuclearising the Korean peninsula, Xi says.

China welcomes ‘actions that avoid US trade war dispute escalation’
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Donald Trump are set to meet in Osaka, Japan on Saturday, with reports that details of a truce are being drafted.

G20: eyes on Trump, but Putin’s date with Xi, Modi is one to watch
The Russian leader faces a whirlwind diplomatic task in Osaka. Iran, Syria and arms control top his agenda with the US president, while Trump’s stance on trade has pushed India, China and Russia closer

US and China tentatively agree to trade war truce ahead of G20
Fresh tariffs threatened by the United States are expected to be delayed, with the two countries preparing separate statements.

US-China trade war could last ‘longer than a generation’
Tariff war could ease after G20 meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Osaka, but rivalry over technology and finance may escalate into other fields.

US-China trade war deal ‘90 per cent complete’, US Treasury chief says
Steven Mnuchin says this week’s meeting of the leaders of the world’s two biggest economies will be ‘very important’

US pressure on Seoul over Huawei taps into fears of North Korea
Washington hints that access to its spying capabilities could be under threat if South Korea does not play ball over China’s 5G giant. That leaves Seoul to weigh the demands of its security ally against those of its top trade partner.

US wraps up hearings on plan to hit all Chinese goods with tariffs
Hundreds of companies and industry groups weigh in on impact of proposed tariffs on around US$300 billion of Chinese products, ahead of Saturday’s Trump-Xi meeting in Japan.

Related posts:

The World Will Not Mourn the Decline of U.S. Hegemony In the global political landscape looms a superpower with a military and eco.

The Sino-US trade dispute is not only a game between representatives of the two countries at the negotiating table, but also a cont...


https://youtu.be/BgTKh4Rx-LI https://youtu.be/rD1EIaTh6_U After Huawei, U.S. blacklists Chinese supercomputers https://youtu.be.

Photo: IC https://youtu.be/tGD072hQGP8   The US has no lack of a “criminal record” in terms of technology theft.  The US has r...

Xi Condemns Bullying, Protectionism Ahead of Meeting With Trump at G20 Summit

Asian member states have grown in prominence as China, India and Indonesia’s economies have boomed over the past two decades. Photo: AFP
Live https://live.cgtn.com/liveweb/

#XiJinping to meet with Trump in Osaka soon #G20Osaka http://bit.ly/31YYmnB

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-06-28/what-are-the-g-20-leaders-going-to-discuss-at-their-summit-video

https://youtu.be/1-TwQmGYsEA
https://youtu.be/yRm0c_MnlH4
https://youtu.be/WHA2tm7XtP0

  https://youtu.be/wDgV6RORgv4

The world’s most powerful leaders are gathering in Japan for meetings that may set the direction for the global economy and make the difference between war and peace in geopolitical hotspots.

Key things to watch include any signs of a breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks, efforts to stem rising tensions between the Trump administration and Iran, and concrete action to lower emissions and reduce plastic pollution in oceans. Major agenda items include President Donald Trump’s meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

China’s President Xi Jinping condemned protectionism and "bullying practices" in a meeting with African leaders ahead of the summit, according to Dai Bing, the foreign ministry’s Director General for African Affairs.

“Any attempt to put one’s own interests first and undermine others’ will not win any popularity,” Xi said, according to Dai.

The comments come a day ahead of Xi’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump as the leaders try to resolve their trade war, as well as other major disputes like Huawei and the South China Sea. - Bloomberg

Read more:


US president warns of Plan B on China trade - Business News


Only sincerity can break trade impasse

Whether there is an agreement or not, China will defend its core interests and will focus on doing its own things well. China is well prepared economically and politically

G20: as China and India draw close, has Trump overplayed his hand?
With Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin displaying increasing bonhomie, the United States will have cause to reflect on its recent trade disputes with ally New Delhi

Merkel arrives at G20 after second shaking scare
German leader, 65, sparked renewed fears for her health after bout of uncontrollable shaking on eve of summit in Japan.

China and Japan try to move to ‘next level’ as Xi state visit confirmed
Chinese president meets Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ahead of G20 summit in Osaka, saying he hopes to strengthen ties further.

As G20 host, Japan faces awkward criticism of environmental record
Activists say Japan has fallen behind on reducing plastic consumption and is caving to US pressure to water down language on climate change to achieve a unanimous statement on the issue.
Explainer | Why the G20 summit matters for Asia (and Asean)
Asia’s major economies have become increasingly important at the multilateral forum, which experts say is an opportunity for the likes of China and Japan to step into leadership roles formerly dominated by the West.

Xi calls for another US-North Korea nuclear summit
Kim still committed to goal of denuclearising the Korean peninsula, Xi says.

China welcomes ‘actions that avoid US trade war dispute escalation’
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Donald Trump are set to meet in Osaka, Japan on Saturday, with reports that details of a truce are being drafted.

G20: eyes on Trump, but Putin’s date with Xi, Modi is one to watch
The Russian leader faces a whirlwind diplomatic task in Osaka. Iran, Syria and arms control top his agenda with the US president, while Trump’s stance on trade has pushed India, China and Russia closer

US and China tentatively agree to trade war truce ahead of G20
Fresh tariffs threatened by the United States are expected to be delayed, with the two countries preparing separate statements.

US-China trade war could last ‘longer than a generation’
Tariff war could ease after G20 meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Osaka, but rivalry over technology and finance may escalate into other fields.

US-China trade war deal ‘90 per cent complete’, US Treasury chief says
Steven Mnuchin says this week’s meeting of the leaders of the world’s two biggest economies will be ‘very important’

US pressure on Seoul over Huawei taps into fears of North Korea
Washington hints that access to its spying capabilities could be under threat if South Korea does not play ball over China’s 5G giant. That leaves Seoul to weigh the demands of its security ally against those of its top trade partner.

US wraps up hearings on plan to hit all Chinese goods with tariffs
Hundreds of companies and industry groups weigh in on impact of proposed tariffs on around US$300 billion of Chinese products, ahead of Saturday’s Trump-Xi meeting in Japan.

Related posts:

The World Will Not Mourn the Decline of U.S. Hegemony In the global political landscape looms a superpower with a military and eco.

The Sino-US trade dispute is not only a game between representatives of the two countries at the negotiating table, but also a cont...


https://youtu.be/BgTKh4Rx-LI https://youtu.be/rD1EIaTh6_U After Huawei, U.S. blacklists Chinese supercomputers https://youtu.be.

Photo: IC https://youtu.be/tGD072hQGP8   The US has no lack of a “criminal record” in terms of technology theft.  The US has r...

Saturday, February 16, 2019

More people around the world see U.S. power and influence as a ‘major threat’ to their country

https://youtu.be/jYs75AzA4xU



By John Gramlich and Kat Devlin

A growing share of people around the world see U.S. power and influence as a “major threat” to their country, and these views are linked with attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the United States as a whole, according to Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 22 nations since 2013.

As confidence in president, favorable views of America have declined, more see U.S. power as a 'major threat'
 As confidence in president, favorable views of America have declined, more see U.S. power as a 'major threat'

A median of 45% across the surveyed nations see U.S. power and influence as a major threat, up from 38% in the same countries during Trump’s first year as president in 2017 and 25% in 2013, during the administration of Barack Obama. The long-term increase in the share of people who see American power as a threat has occurred alongside declines in the shares of people who say they have confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs and who have a favorable view of the United States. (For more about global views toward the U.S. president and the country he leads, see “Trump’s International Ratings Remain Low, Especially Among Key Allies.”)

Despite these changes, U.S. power and influence still ranks below other perceived threats around the world. Considerably larger shares of people point to global climate change (seen as a major threat by a median of 67%), the Islamic militant group known as ISIS (cited by 62%) and cyberattacks (cited by 61%). U.S. power and influence, in fact, is not seen as the top threat in any of the countries surveyed.

People see U.S. power and influence as a greater threat in the Trump era

 People see U.S. power and influence as a greater threat in the Trump era

Still, in 18 of the 22 countries, there were statistically significant increases in the share of people who see American power and influence as a major threat between 2013 and 2018. That includes increases of 30 percentage points in Germany, 29 points in France, and 26 points in Brazil and Mexico. And while these shares rose substantially in many countries after Trump’s election, they increased further in several nations between Trump’s first and second year in office.

In Germany and France, for instance, the share of people who see U.S. power and influence as a major threat went up by 14 and 13 percentage points, respectively, between 2017 and 2018. Other notable year-over-year increases occurred in Tunisia (11 points), Canada and Argentina (8 points each), South Africa (7 points) and Brazil and Russia (6 points each).

Other nations bucked this trend, however. In Spain, for example, the share of people who see American power as a major threat fell by 17 points between 2017 and 2018 (from 59% to 42%). Still, people in Spain remain much more likely to see the U.S. as a threat today than in 2013.

Overall, there are 10 nations surveyed where roughly half or more now see U.S. power as a major threat, with the biggest shares saying this in South Korea (67%), Japan (66%) and Mexico (64%).

In South Korea, equal shares point to U.S. power and influence and to North Korea’s nuclear program as a major threat to their nation (each is cited by 67% of the public). However, several other perceived threats to South Koreans outrank U.S. power and influence, including global climate change (named by 86% of South Koreans), China’s power and influence (cited by 82%), cyberattacks from other countries (cited by 81%) and the condition of the global economy (cited by 74%). South Koreans have long perceived American power as a major threat to their country: 66% said this in 2013 and 70% said it in 2017.

In many of the surveyed countries, concerns about American power and influence are connected with views of Trump: People who have little or no confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs are more likely than those who have confidence in Trump to see U.S. power and influence as a top threat to their country. This includes several longtime U.S. allies, including Canada, the UK and Australia.

The same pattern appears when it comes to views of the U.S. in general, as opposed to its president. In most surveyed nations, people who have a more unfavorable view of the U.S. are also more likely to say that American power and influence is a threat to their nation.

Topics: U.S. Global Image and Anti-Americanism, Country Image, Donald Trump
Photo of John Gramlich

is a writer/editor at Pew Research Center.


Related:
 
Yang Jiechi defends Huawei at the Munich Security Conference

https://youtu.be/vuqL7fBDWrI

China to US: You’re lying about Huawei
https://youtu.be/WdNobdkSQyA

US trying to sabotage Huawei, ZTE and Sino-5G. Too late. Game over. China Rising Radio Sinoland
  https://youtu.be/UN3cUQ2LdhQ

Related post:


China to US: You’re lying about Huawei, unjust and immoral bullying

More people around the world see U.S. power and influence as a ‘major threat’ to their country

https://youtu.be/jYs75AzA4xU



By John Gramlich and Kat Devlin

A growing share of people around the world see U.S. power and influence as a “major threat” to their country, and these views are linked with attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the United States as a whole, according to Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 22 nations since 2013.

As confidence in president, favorable views of America have declined, more see U.S. power as a 'major threat'
 As confidence in president, favorable views of America have declined, more see U.S. power as a 'major threat'

A median of 45% across the surveyed nations see U.S. power and influence as a major threat, up from 38% in the same countries during Trump’s first year as president in 2017 and 25% in 2013, during the administration of Barack Obama. The long-term increase in the share of people who see American power as a threat has occurred alongside declines in the shares of people who say they have confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs and who have a favorable view of the United States. (For more about global views toward the U.S. president and the country he leads, see “Trump’s International Ratings Remain Low, Especially Among Key Allies.”)

Despite these changes, U.S. power and influence still ranks below other perceived threats around the world. Considerably larger shares of people point to global climate change (seen as a major threat by a median of 67%), the Islamic militant group known as ISIS (cited by 62%) and cyberattacks (cited by 61%). U.S. power and influence, in fact, is not seen as the top threat in any of the countries surveyed.

People see U.S. power and influence as a greater threat in the Trump era

 People see U.S. power and influence as a greater threat in the Trump era

Still, in 18 of the 22 countries, there were statistically significant increases in the share of people who see American power and influence as a major threat between 2013 and 2018. That includes increases of 30 percentage points in Germany, 29 points in France, and 26 points in Brazil and Mexico. And while these shares rose substantially in many countries after Trump’s election, they increased further in several nations between Trump’s first and second year in office.

In Germany and France, for instance, the share of people who see U.S. power and influence as a major threat went up by 14 and 13 percentage points, respectively, between 2017 and 2018. Other notable year-over-year increases occurred in Tunisia (11 points), Canada and Argentina (8 points each), South Africa (7 points) and Brazil and Russia (6 points each).

Other nations bucked this trend, however. In Spain, for example, the share of people who see American power as a major threat fell by 17 points between 2017 and 2018 (from 59% to 42%). Still, people in Spain remain much more likely to see the U.S. as a threat today than in 2013.

Overall, there are 10 nations surveyed where roughly half or more now see U.S. power as a major threat, with the biggest shares saying this in South Korea (67%), Japan (66%) and Mexico (64%).

In South Korea, equal shares point to U.S. power and influence and to North Korea’s nuclear program as a major threat to their nation (each is cited by 67% of the public). However, several other perceived threats to South Koreans outrank U.S. power and influence, including global climate change (named by 86% of South Koreans), China’s power and influence (cited by 82%), cyberattacks from other countries (cited by 81%) and the condition of the global economy (cited by 74%). South Koreans have long perceived American power as a major threat to their country: 66% said this in 2013 and 70% said it in 2017.

In many of the surveyed countries, concerns about American power and influence are connected with views of Trump: People who have little or no confidence in the U.S. president to do the right thing regarding world affairs are more likely than those who have confidence in Trump to see U.S. power and influence as a top threat to their country. This includes several longtime U.S. allies, including Canada, the UK and Australia.

The same pattern appears when it comes to views of the U.S. in general, as opposed to its president. In most surveyed nations, people who have a more unfavorable view of the U.S. are also more likely to say that American power and influence is a threat to their nation.

Topics: U.S. Global Image and Anti-Americanism, Country Image, Donald Trump
Photo of John Gramlich

is a writer/editor at Pew Research Center.


Related:
 
Yang Jiechi defends Huawei at the Munich Security Conference

https://youtu.be/vuqL7fBDWrI

China to US: You’re lying about Huawei
https://youtu.be/WdNobdkSQyA

US trying to sabotage Huawei, ZTE and Sino-5G. Too late. Game over. China Rising Radio Sinoland
  https://youtu.be/UN3cUQ2LdhQ


Related post:

China to US: You’re lying about Huawei, unjust and immoral bullying

Monday, September 24, 2018

Tariff war threatens world trading system

https://youtu.be/BCu1Mt9GWT8 https://youtu.be/BheswegaOKk https://youtu.be/1_udiBoAP68

TODAY marks another milestone in the escalating global trade war that threatens to shake the foundations of the world trading system and cause economic uncertainty at a time of financial fragility. It’s an altogether bad development that adds more gloom to global economic prospects.

Last week, the United States announced it would slap an additional 10% tariff on US$200bil worth of imports from China. Hours later, China said it would put 5% to 10% extra tariffs on US$60bil of imports from the US.

Both sets of tariff increases come into effect today. But that’s not all.

The US also said it would raise the extra tariffs on the US$200bil of imports from 10% now to 25% at the end of the year. And if China retaliates (which it now has), the US might slap higher tariffs on yet another US$267bil of Chinese imports.

This comes on top of tariffs on an initial US$50bil worth of imports that the US had placed on Chinese imports a few months ago, and equivalent tariffs on US$50bil on US imports that China imposed as retaliation.

And even before that, the US had put extra tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from all countries, except a few that were exempted for the time being.

The US is also threatening to put tariffs on imported auto vehicles and parts, including those from Europe. That is on hold because of a bilateral deal reached, but could be re-ignited if President Donald Trump is not satisfied with Euro­pean behaviour.

The US itself is experiencing negative effects of this trade war. The prices of the initial US$50bil of imported Chinese products have started to go up in the US, raising costs for both consumers and producers.

The Chinese are similarly affected. Exports of both countries are also bound to decline, and this will eventually affect their overall economic growth.

There will be collateral effects on other countries. In Asia, those that are integrated in the global supply chain will find less demand for their exports of components to China. The effect on Malaysia is projected by analysts to be around 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point of GNP in 2019.

This could be offset by positive effects. Some companies producing in China are considering relocating to other countries, including Malaysia, to escape the US’ punitive tariffs. And some Malaysian products may become cheaper than Chinese products, which will now attract extra duties.

But it is likely that the bad effects will outweigh any such good effects, at least in the short run.

It is clear that the US is to blame for the trade war. Its unilateral actions are against the spirit and rules of the trading system, and have in fact undermined its legitimacy and viability.

The steel and aluminium tariffs were imposed under the US security clause of its domestic trade law, while the other tariff increases are under Section 301 of the trade law. The US actions are against various World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Challenges to the US unilateral measures have been taken by China and other countries at the WTO. If the US is found in violation, which is quite likely, it has to stop its actions or face retaliation: the countries that win the cases heard by the WTO panels of experts are allowed to impose equivalent tariffs on US products.

However, the US has engineered a crisis in the WTO’s dispute settlement system so that soon the outcome of successful cases against it cannot be implemented.

This is because the US is now paralysing the WTO’s Appellate Body by refusing to allow new members of the body to be appointed to replace those retiring. Soon there will be only three members left, out of a full body of seven. Two more will be retiring in January 2019. A minimum of three members is needed to sit on a case.

Thus, if a lower-level panel rules against the US’ unilateral actions, and the US lodges an appeal that cannot be heard because there are not enough appellate body members, the panel decision cannot be enforced.

This would make the WTO quite a toothless organisation. There would be no legal remedy to enforce penalties for breaking the WTO laws. Countries that impose unilateral tariff increases can get away with it. In turn, other countries would also do the same.

The rules-based trade system is already starting to break down. We are now seeing blatant protectionism by the US and retaliation by affected countries. Within months, the trade war could spread, with the law of the jungle becoming more prominent.

Tears will not be shed in the developing countries if some rules cannot be upheld anymore, such as the WTO’s TRIPS agreement on intellectual property. The free trade economist Jagdish Bhagwati has said the TRIPS treaty does not belong in the WTO.

But what all members like about the WTO is its role in ensuring the predictability that their exports can sell in the markets of its members, with tariffs at rates agreed to at the WTO.

If that predictability is lost, then there can be a lot of uncertainty, as one country after another can unilaterally impose extra tariffs on other countries, which may then trigger retaliation.

This breakdown of the trading system may be the more serious effect of what started as a US-initiated trade war.

Trump may not care what happens to the system, as he has said many times that the WTO is a terrible organisation that the US should leave. And his recent actions, in fact, seem calculated to undermine, if not destroy it.

It is a new world we are looking at, in a scenario that would not have appeared possible a year or even months ago.

Policy makers, companies, analysts and the public should ponder about this, even as they follow the details of the tit-for-tat trade war that the US is waging against China and other countries.

Martin Khor is adviser of the Third World Network. The views expressed here are entirely his own.

Credit: Global Trend by Martin Khor


Related:



China won't yield to US trade stick

We also hope that the Chinese public gets to know the causes and effects of the event and the steadiness of the Chinese government's policies. No matter how long China-US trade conflicts last, China is doing what it should. China is honest and principled and a major trade power with intensive strengths. No one can take us down.

US hysterical in blocking sci-tech exchanges

The US is anxious about its temporary gains and losses. One minute it wants Sino-US exchanges, but the next it worries China is taking advantage. Its relevant policies are bound to change all the time. Its latest decision is like the trade war. Washington's purpose is to drag Beijing down, but it will mostly hurt itself.



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TODAY marks another milestone in the escalating global trade war that threatens to shake the foundations of the world trading system and cause economic uncertainty at a time of financial fragility. It’s an altogether bad development that adds more gloom to global economic prospects.

Last week, the United States announced it would slap an additional 10% tariff on US$200bil worth of imports from China. Hours later, China said it would put 5% to 10% extra tariffs on US$60bil of imports from the US.

Both sets of tariff increases come into effect today. But that’s not all.

The US also said it would raise the extra tariffs on the US$200bil of imports from 10% now to 25% at the end of the year. And if China retaliates (which it now has), the US might slap higher tariffs on yet another US$267bil of Chinese imports.

This comes on top of tariffs on an initial US$50bil worth of imports that the US had placed on Chinese imports a few months ago, and equivalent tariffs on US$50bil on US imports that China imposed as retaliation.

And even before that, the US had put extra tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from all countries, except a few that were exempted for the time being.

The US is also threatening to put tariffs on imported auto vehicles and parts, including those from Europe. That is on hold because of a bilateral deal reached, but could be re-ignited if President Donald Trump is not satisfied with Euro­pean behaviour.

The US itself is experiencing negative effects of this trade war. The prices of the initial US$50bil of imported Chinese products have started to go up in the US, raising costs for both consumers and producers.

The Chinese are similarly affected. Exports of both countries are also bound to decline, and this will eventually affect their overall economic growth.

There will be collateral effects on other countries. In Asia, those that are integrated in the global supply chain will find less demand for their exports of components to China. The effect on Malaysia is projected by analysts to be around 0.4 to 0.7 percentage point of GNP in 2019.

This could be offset by positive effects. Some companies producing in China are considering relocating to other countries, including Malaysia, to escape the US’ punitive tariffs. And some Malaysian products may become cheaper than Chinese products, which will now attract extra duties.

But it is likely that the bad effects will outweigh any such good effects, at least in the short run.

It is clear that the US is to blame for the trade war. Its unilateral actions are against the spirit and rules of the trading system, and have in fact undermined its legitimacy and viability.

The steel and aluminium tariffs were imposed under the US security clause of its domestic trade law, while the other tariff increases are under Section 301 of the trade law. The US actions are against various World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Challenges to the US unilateral measures have been taken by China and other countries at the WTO. If the US is found in violation, which is quite likely, it has to stop its actions or face retaliation: the countries that win the cases heard by the WTO panels of experts are allowed to impose equivalent tariffs on US products.

However, the US has engineered a crisis in the WTO’s dispute settlement system so that soon the outcome of successful cases against it cannot be implemented.

This is because the US is now paralysing the WTO’s Appellate Body by refusing to allow new members of the body to be appointed to replace those retiring. Soon there will be only three members left, out of a full body of seven. Two more will be retiring in January 2019. A minimum of three members is needed to sit on a case.

Thus, if a lower-level panel rules against the US’ unilateral actions, and the US lodges an appeal that cannot be heard because there are not enough appellate body members, the panel decision cannot be enforced.

This would make the WTO quite a toothless organisation. There would be no legal remedy to enforce penalties for breaking the WTO laws. Countries that impose unilateral tariff increases can get away with it. In turn, other countries would also do the same.

The rules-based trade system is already starting to break down. We are now seeing blatant protectionism by the US and retaliation by affected countries. Within months, the trade war could spread, with the law of the jungle becoming more prominent.

Tears will not be shed in the developing countries if some rules cannot be upheld anymore, such as the WTO’s TRIPS agreement on intellectual property. The free trade economist Jagdish Bhagwati has said the TRIPS treaty does not belong in the WTO.

But what all members like about the WTO is its role in ensuring the predictability that their exports can sell in the markets of its members, with tariffs at rates agreed to at the WTO.

If that predictability is lost, then there can be a lot of uncertainty, as one country after another can unilaterally impose extra tariffs on other countries, which may then trigger retaliation.

This breakdown of the trading system may be the more serious effect of what started as a US-initiated trade war.

Trump may not care what happens to the system, as he has said many times that the WTO is a terrible organisation that the US should leave. And his recent actions, in fact, seem calculated to undermine, if not destroy it.

It is a new world we are looking at, in a scenario that would not have appeared possible a year or even months ago.

Policy makers, companies, analysts and the public should ponder about this, even as they follow the details of the tit-for-tat trade war that the US is waging against China and other countries.

Martin Khor is adviser of the Third World Network. The views expressed here are entirely his own.

Credit: Global Trend by Martin Khor


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China won't yield to US trade stick

We also hope that the Chinese public gets to know the causes and effects of the event and the steadiness of the Chinese government's policies. No matter how long China-US trade conflicts last, China is doing what it should. China is honest and principled and a major trade power with intensive strengths. No one can take us down.

US hysterical in blocking sci-tech exchanges

The US is anxious about its temporary gains and losses. One minute it wants Sino-US exchanges, but the next it worries China is taking advantage. Its relevant policies are bound to change all the time. Its latest decision is like the trade war. Washington's purpose is to drag Beijing down, but it will mostly hurt itself.



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Wednesday, September 12, 2018

The Damocles index by Nomura warns of fiscal tension in Malaysia, score accross coountries, the hits and misses 1996~20118


PETALING JAYA: Allowing a larger fiscal deficit and running the risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade in 2019 could cause balance of payments stress, given Malaysia’s high short-term external debts and low foreign exchange (forex) reserves, said Nomura.

Following the reversal of fiscal reforms like goods and services tax (GST) and the removal of fuel subsidies, the new government now faces the tough choice of either cutting spending at the cost of growth, or allowing a larger fiscal deficit and the risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade in 2019.

According to a Nomura global research report, Malaysia’s Damocles score in July 2018 was 86.9, below the 100 threshold.

The Damocles index by Nomura summarises macroeconomic and financial variables into a single measure to assess an economy’s vulnerability to a currency crisis.

The oil price slump of 2014 to 2016 was a major shock for Malaysia, one of the few net-oil and gas exporters in Asia.

“While Bank Negara initially expanded forex reserves to defend the ringgit, it eventually allowed a sharp depreciation in 2015 which boosted export competitiveness.

“Malaysia has proved resilient and its current account remained in surplus, benefiting from a diversified economy and fiscal reforms,” said Nomura.

Three countries in the region, namely, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, have a Damocles score of zero, while Vietnam has a moderate Damocles score of 35.

The Bank of Thailand is signalling policy normalisation to build policy space and reduce financial stability risks following a prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates. This is as headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation returned to within the 1% to 4% inflation target and economy growing at potential.

Thailand’s current account surplus as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has been sizeable since 2015, driven by weak domestic demand and, more recently, growing tourism revenues as well as an export recovery.

“Over this period, forex reserves rose sharply, and they are now at very favourable adequacy levels relative to both imports and short-term external debts.

“The fiscal deficit is expected to widen slightly in 2018, as the government increases spending to support populist policies targeting low-income earners, in the run-up to the election in early 2019,” said Nomura, adding that real interest rates are falling gradually and remain marginally positive, as inflationary pressures have been stubbornly weak.

Over in Indonesia, a negative terms-of-trade shock in 2014 raised the Damocles score in 2014 to 2016, but it has fallen back to zero due to Bank Indonesia’s build-up of forex reserve buffers and government reforms that improved foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.

While depreciation pressures have risen again in 2018, BI has acted decisively with 125 basis points in policy rate hikes to date.

“We expect another 25 basis points, with the risk of more.

“Bank Indonesia maintains a flexible forex regime and a dual-intervention framework in forex and bond markets, as well as introduced macro-prudential measures, like requiring residents to hedge external exposure,” said Nomura.

The research house added that Bank Indonesia has also strengthened policy coordination with the Finance Ministry, which is implementing policies to reduce the current account deficit, while prioritising a credible 2019 budget despite upcoming presidential elections.

Sword of Damocles hangs over Sri Lanka


PETALING JAYA: Sri Lanka is at risk of an exchange rate crisis mainly due to its still-weak fiscal finances and a fragile external position.

Sri Lanka charted the highest Damocles score of 175, among 30 emerging market (EM) economies.

The Damocles index by Nomura summarises macroeconomic and financial variables into a single measure to assess an economy’s vulnerability to a currency crisis.

A score above 100 suggests a country is vulnerable to an exchange rate crisis in the next 12 months, while a reading above 150 signals that a crisis could erupt at any time.

Sri Lanka has large refinancing needs, with foreign exchange (forex) reserves of less than five months of import cover and high short-term external debt of US$ 7.5bil.

“Political stability also remains an issue, as recent resignations have weakened the government (its term ends mid-2020) and despite retaining a simple majority, complicates the task of continuing to implement International Monetary Fund (IMF)-induced reforms.

“However, without IMF support, the risk of a currency crisis would be higher,” said Nomura in its global research report.

Meanwhile, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine are currently vulnerable to an exchange rate crisis, having Damocles scores of more than 100.

“Based on our definition, Argentina and Turkey are experiencing currency crises, while Argentina, Egypt, Sri Lanka and Ukraine have turned to the IMF for assistance, leaving Pakistan and South Africa as the standouts.

“As investors focus more on risk, it is important not to lump all EMs together as one homogeneous group; Damocles highlights a long list of countries with very low risk of currency crises,” said Nomura.

Eight countries, namely, Brazil, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, Philippines, Russia and Thailand, have Damocles scores of zero.

It is notable that China’s Damocles index has maintained since dropping to 36.9 in late 2017 from 62.4 in October 2017.

The index far below the 100 threshold suggests that the risk of an exchange rate crisis in China is limited.

Nomura concurred that China’s balance of payment position remains healthy, given it has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves at US$3.1 trillion, as of July 2018.

“However, we highlight that its pockets are not as deep as they once were, given that current account deficits at minus 0.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of 2018 may occur more frequently, net direct investment inflows may moderate further, and external debt has risen significantly.

“Moreover, we see domestic challenges from weakening aggregate demand and other fundamental problems, and external risks from the escalation in China-US trade tensions and trade protectionism,” said Nomura.

As for India, its Damocles score has fallen to 25 in the third quarter of 2018, from 56 during 2012 to 2013.

India’s most recent currency crisis occurred in 2013 and was due to weak domestic macro fundamentals and worsening external funding conditions. Since then, consumer price index (CPI) inflation has moderated to about 4.5% in 2018 from 9.7% in 2012, as has the current account deficit at an estimated -2.5% of GDP, compared to minus 5% in 2012. Furthermore, India’s central bank has a sufficient forex reserve buffer of 9.3 months of import cover versus 6.4 in 2012.

“However, given India runs a current account deficit, it remains vulnerable to bouts of global risk aversion. Higher oil prices and portfolio outflows are its key external vulnerabilities.

“Aside from these, the key risks stem from the government turning more populist ahead of the 2019 general elections (worsening domestic fundamentals) and a sharper-than-expected domestic growth slowdown (triggering equity outflows),” said Nomura.

The Damocles index comprises eight indicators that are found to be the best predictors of exchange rate crises in the 30-country sample, in which there have been 54 crises since 1996. It includes five single indicators which are import cover, short-term external debt or exports, forex reserves or short-term external debt, broad money or forex reserves and real short-term interest rate.

On the other hand, the three joint indicators are non-foreign direct investment (FDI) gross inflows of one-year and three-year, fiscal and current account, as well as current account and real effective exchange rate deviation. To date, Damocles has correctly signalled 67% of the past 54 crises in Nomura’s sample, including the Asian financial crisis (1997 to 1998), Russian financial crisis (1998) and the 2018 EM currency crises in Argentina and Turkey.

“The advantage of Damocles lies in its objective nature in letting the data speak, not clouded by conventional misperceptions or biases based on past experiences. While the results achieved are encouraging, but given the inherent limitations of any early warning system, it would be foolish to make any exaggerated claims.

“For instance, Brazil’s Damocles score of zero implies very low external vulnerability; yet the Brazilian real (BRL) has depreciated more than 10% in August alone due to an uncertain presidential election outlook,” said Nomura. - The Star

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