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Showing posts with label China's rise. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China's rise. Show all posts

Saturday, October 23, 2021

Can the great powers avoid war?

 https://youtu.be/Uiz934HVZjY

 Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire with Michael Hudson

 

 

https://youtu.be/NK0ls5hV_5Y  

The Rise and Fall of Great Powers? America, China, and the Global Order

 

When the meek are weak, they suffer because they must. But when the strong are insecure, that is when war begins.

AS tensions over the Taiwan Strait mount, everyone needs to think through whether war is inevitable.

Leon Trotsky once said: “You may not be interested in war but war is interested in you.”

And if we slip into war by what World War I historian Barbara Tuchman called the “March of Folly”, can the great powers step back from mutual nuclear annihilation?

When the world’s unipolar power incurred more pandemic deaths (at last count 752,000) and got defeated in Afghanistan by tribal warriors, no one should be surprised to ask whether America (and by extension Western civilisation) is in a decline.

The prestigious US magazine Foreign Affairs devoted three issues this year to: “Can America Recover?”, “Decline and Fall – Can America ever Lead Again?” and “Can China Keep Rising?”

For those reading the endless barrage of invectives against America’s rivals, it certainly feels like the Cold War has returned with a vengeance.

However, for Greta Thunberg and fellow climate activists, surely the world leaders’ priority is to work together to address our looming climate disaster.

Why are alphas fighting in a burning planet? Shouldn’t we call “time out” to see how to address collectively the urgent and existential issues of human and planetary distress?

Next month, the World Economic Forum is meeting in Dubai with an agenda to move from a Great Reset to a Grand Narrative Initiative “to shape the contours of a more prosperous and inclusive future for humanity that is also more respectful of nature.”

Grand Narrative may sound like a media story but the reality is that the masses are unlikely to buy an elite-driven dream until they are part of the conversation.

Take Harvard historian Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilisations” narrative. Written in 1996, Huntington seemed prescient in predicting the clash between Western civilisation and the rest, namely, Sinic, Japanese, Hindu, Islamic and Latin American.

He asked poignantly: “The central theme for the West is whether, quite apart from our external challenges, it is capable of stopping and reversing the internal process of decay. Can the West renew itself or will sustained internal rot simply accelerate its end and/or subordination to other economically and demographically more dynamic civilisations?”

Huntington basically reflected the worry of British historian Arnold Toynbee (18891975) that since civilisations are born out of primitive societies, the key is whether the elites can respond effectively to new challenges, internal or external.

Toynbee saw clearer than other Western historians like Gibbon (Decline and Fall of Roman Empire) that collapses are not necessarily due to barbarian invasions but whether the ruling elite can overcome their own greed or interests to address the new challenges.

In pure economic, financial, technology and military terms, few question that the West remains superior in almost all aspects, except in population numbers.

According to the Maddison projections of population and GDP, the rich countries (essentially Western Europe, plus Western offshoots (the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and Japan would be 947 million people and 36.3% of world GDP by 2030, whereas Asia (China, India and other parts of Asia) would have a population of 4.7 billion and 49.6% of GDP.

This reverses the 2003 position when the West (including Japan) accounted for half of world GDP, compared with one-third for Asia.

The dramatic reversal is due to the rise of China, India and the rest of Asia to higher-middle-income levels by 2030, mainly through trade and catch-up in technology.

In the coming decades, roughly one billion rich West must contend with the rising powers of China (1.4 billion), India (1.3 billion) and Islamic countries (1+ billion), which have cultures and ideologies very different from the West.

If the planet heats up as expected, expect more Latin Americans, Africans and Middle East poor arriving on the West’s borders to migrate.

At the same time, with the American demonisation of Russia and China pushing them closer together, the United States is confronting at least three fronts (including the Middle East) amid a fractious domestic arena, where political polarisation prevents policy cohesion and continuity.

This current situation reminds Islamic countries following their great historian Ibn Khaldun (1332-1406 AD) of the cycle of dynastic and empires that Islam went through.

When the social cohesion or bonds (asabiya) is strong, there is state legitimacy and empires rise. When it is weak, dynasties fall and empires are lost.

After the Jan 6, 2020 insurrection in Washington DC, many are inclined to believe that fratricidal tribalism is happening now inside America.

Similarly, Chinese macro-historians Sima Qian (Records of the Grand Historian, 146-86 BC) and Sima Guang (Comprehensive Mirror for Governance, 1019-1086 AD) also recorded that empires fall not so much from external invasion but internal decay.

In Yale, historian (Rise and Fall of Great Powers) Paul Kennedy’s terminology has the United States arrived at the point of “imperial over-reach”, when the country’s global ambitions and responsibilities exceed its financial and industrial capacity.

After all, the US government debt has reached as high as the end of World War II level without even starting World War III.

But all historians know that rise, decline or fall is never pre-ordained. The past is not a scientific linear predictor of the future. The unipolar order has weakened, without any grand bargain between the great powers on what the new order should even begin to look like.

Any grand bargain requires the incumbent hegemon to admit that there are equals and peers in power that want the rules of the game reset from the old order.

This does not mean that anyone will replace the United States soon because everyone wants to buy time to set their own house in order after the pandemic.

In short, before any Grand Narrative, we need a whole series of conversations with all sides, from the weakest to the most powerful, on what individually and collectively the post-pandemic order should look like.

There can never be one Grand Narrative by the elites until there are enough dialogues between the many.

When the meek are weak, they suffer because they must. But when the strong are insecure, that is when war begins.

By ANDREW SHENG. Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Friday, September 10, 2021

While sowing discord around China, the US is heading to be a 'failing state'

 

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT 

 

The Guardian published an article on Wednesday titled "'Like Game of Thrones': how triple crisis on China's borders will shape its global identity." The article says that North Korea, Myanmar and Afghanistan are "three ongoing crises in China's neighborhood," and called the three countries "failing states."

The logic of this article is reversed. It is not that these three countries neighboring China are "failing states." Instead, China's neighbors are targeted by the US to infiltrate and create disorder. Washington intends to use them to levy pressure on China. The chaos or difficulties faced by these countries are due to the intervention or suppression from the US.

Russia is also a major country the US deems as a rival, and Russia's neighboring countries, like Ukraine and Belarus, have also been infiltrated by the US. Washington aims at turning these countries into pawns in its strategic competition with Beijing and Moscow.

The Guardian's report quoted Thant Myint-U, historian and former presidential adviser of Myanmar, who declared that the Western approach to "failing states" is rooted in "ideas around elections, democracy, and human rights." But obviously, by doing so, the US' real purpose is to find excuses for interfering in these countries. The US government does not give any consideration to the feelings of local people, nor does it care about the interests of these countries.

"If the model imposed by the West is really suitable for these countries, then local people would have accepted it. But in fact, most people and political parties in these countries have rejected the US model. This shows that the model advocated by the US and the West is a political manipulation with evil intentions, rather than providing real freedom and democracy that benefit local people," Li Haidong, professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times.

However, such infiltration of the US is doomed to fail. Take Afghanistan, for example. The US tried to spread democracy in Afghanistan in the past 20 years, yet its hasty withdrawal shows that its so-called fight against terrorism and promotion of "democratic reforms" has completely failed.

The US' barbaric acts will undoubtedly run up against a stone wall in the world. However, China has always respected the sovereignty and independence of Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban has shown its will to engage in good relations with China. The head of the Afghan Taliban Political Commission, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, said in a meeting in July with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi that China has always been a reliable friend of the Afghan people. The Taliban has also said that it welcomes Chinese investments in Afghanistan's reconstruction.

"It now appears that the US is more like a 'failing state,' not these countries. The US government has failed to control the COVID-19 epidemic and its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan has embarrassed itself in the international community. With unsuccessful governance, there are more signs showing that the US is becoming a typical failing state but it refuses to admit this itself," Li said.



Some Western countries and media outlets are still immersed in their own fantasies, sensationally hyping the "crises" surrounding China. In fact, most of China's neighboring countries are stable, as the center of the global economy is shifting from the US and Europe to Asia. 

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Friday, September 23, 2016

Xiamen University shaping up to be the largest foreign university campus in Malaysia

 Xiamen University Malaysia Campus

Video: First ever Chinese overseas campus opens in Kuala Lumpur
CCTV News - CCTV.com English http://english.cctv.com/2016/09/23/VIDEQAcbMXh1wwYcpf2mzJGF160923.shtml#.V-S9c6xl6C4.twitter

In Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur, students have this week been enrolling at the first Chinese university to open a campus overseas.

Officials feel it is more than just an educational ventune, it is also a way to advance good relations between China and its southeast Asian neighbors, as well as promoting the inclusive Belt & Road initiative.

A specially chartered Xiamen Airlines plane brought this special, first group of students to Kuala Lumpur. In all, 440 students from 14 Chinese provinces will be arriving this week to take their places at the emerging new campus of Xiamen University in Malaysia. They all scored top marks in China’s university entry exams and chose to be part of this pioneering educational venture.

“In terms of the quality, in terms of the size of the batch of students, and in terms of the procedures, this is unprecedented in terms of Malaysia’s tertiary education history. So it’s really a big day for us too,” said Professor Wang Ruifang President, Xiamen University Malaysia.

A specially chartered Xiamen Airlines plane brought this special, first batch of students to Kuala Lumpur.
A specially chartered Xiamen Airlines plane brought this special, first batch of students to Kuala Lumpur.

It’s also a big day for the students.

“First is excited, because it’s an opportunity for me to develop, and it’s an opportunity for me to enjoy the cultural diversity,” said Zhu Wen, student, Xiamen University Malaysia.

The Chinese students will join students from Malaysia and later around South East Asia. Numbers will eventually swell to 10,000 at what is shaping up to be the largest foreign university campus in Malaysia. All courses will be taught in English, except for Chinese studies and Traditional Chinese Medicine.

At a recent meeting with Southeast Asian leaders, Chinese premier Li Keqiang said China wants to strengthen its relationship with ASEAN in a number of key areas, including people to people ties, and in particular, education.

The university says it hopes to advance that aim as well as China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, something the Chinese students are well aware of.

“The Malaysia campus is based on China’s Belt and Road initiative so I think to come to the Malaysia campus is to put our hands on the ark of history and combine historical process and our personal development together,” said Wu Hanyang, student.

A lofty goal, perhaps, but in keeping with what this campus is really about: Meeting the highest academic standards while helping China and ASEAN deepen their social, cultural, strategic and economic cooperation.

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Sunday, January 3, 2016

US will benefit by accepting China's rise

Trade volume between China and the US hit $441.6 billion in the first three quarters of the year, surpassing the $438.1 billion in trade between Canada and the US. [Photo/IC]

In the past year, the growing pressure on US President Barack Obama's foreign policy due to the unfolding US presidential race cast a shadow on US-China ties despite some achievements.

The international situation and diplomatic practices in the passing year, to a large extent, confirm this contention. Some impartial American scholars agree to it because of the global issues the US faces, and wonder why the US has gone all out looking for "adversaries" in every corner of the world. Also, a number of such scholars believe that whether China and the US can avoid a confrontation largely depends on whether the US can rethink its "dominant power" status.

The world is undergoing profound changes, and that includes China's rise. The changes, however, have made some people in the US nervous, according to some American scholars. The US has got accustomed to being the world's most powerful country. But the fact is, the US' power has been declining. And these people attribute the development to the weakening US leadership and argue that a strong leadership will help restore Washington's unchallenged position in the world.

Needless to say the presumption is unrealistic. A sagacious analysis of the situation, however, can help the US rethink its real position in the world. Regrettably, US decision-makers have failed to read the vicissitudes of the times and still want to maintain world peace under Washington's leadership and change other countries by forcing them to adopt the US model of "democracy".

The world today is different from what the US imagines it to be. Countries, including the powerful ones, will prosper if they follow the general world trend and falter if they go against the tide. The trend suggests the developing world as a whole will continue to rise because emerging countries now contribute more than 50 percent to world economic growth. Even some Westerners admit that no major world issue can be resolved without the participation of big countries such as China, India and Brazil.

Despite all this, there is hardly a country that doesn't want to maintain and develop good ties with the US. The BRICS countries expect smooth cooperation with the US. Russia may be determined to rid Syria of terrorists, but it has still made it clear that it wants cooperation with the US. China's willingness to cooperate with the US is also beyond doubt. But the problem is, the US has not made appropriate changes in its stance and often takes actions without paying attention to other countries' interests.

Because of China's consistent efforts, Beijing and Washington have made notable achievements in economic, military and cultural fields, and these hard-won achievements should be cherished by both sides. But by being unnecessarily worried that China will challenge its hegemonic status, the US has been making moves to contain China on various fronts. Apt examples are the US' tough and even provocative stance and actions on the South China Sea issue.

The ever-increasing interdependence of China and the US should have led to better bilateral ties. And with many US allies, including Britain, Canada and Australia, showing greater interest in cooperating with China, one wonders why the US cannot do the same when it comes to its relationship with China.

By Wang Yusheng (China Daily)

The author is executive director of the Strategy Study Center, China Foundation for International Studies.

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