PETALING JAYA: The property market is expected to remain cautiously optimistic in 2023, with the gradual increase in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) since last year likely to affect market activity, particularly on residential demand, says the Valuation and Property Services Department.
The outlook of the workforce in the construction sector and the increase in the price of building materials will also affect supply.
Department director-general Abdul Razak Yusak said internal and external factors, such as economic and financial developments both globally and in the country, would also have an impact on the real estate sector and the sentiment of industry players.
“Looking at the national economy which is projected to grow by 4% to 5% in 2023, supported by continued resilient domestic growth prospects, the property market is expected to remain cautiously optimistic in 2023,” he said.The first quarter of this year alone saw over 89,000 transactions worth RM42.31bil, which was higher than those recorded in pre-pandemic years, he said.
“The seasonal factor in house purchases, which is usually low at the beginning of the year, the increase in OPR and the decline in Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) are among the factors that contributed to a decline in residential market activity in particular,” he said.
New residential launches, said Abdul Razak, were also indicating a cautious sentiment among developers, with the number recorded at nearly 4,700 units, which was less than those in previous years, while sales performance was moderate at 25.7%.
The decrease in new launches was in line with the decrease in the number of developers’ licences and advertising and sales permits of new housing sales and renewals approved by the Local Government Development Ministry from 5,641 in January and February last year to 2,911 during the same period this year, he added.
Johor recorded the highest number of new launches at 2,077 units or about 45% of the nationwide total with a sales performance of 24.9% while Selangor had the second highest at 791 units or 17% share with a sales performance of 37%.
Abdul Razak said in line with the cautious sentiment among developers, construction activity had slowed down in the first quarter of 2023.
“This is seen as a positive development to balance the unsold supply in the market,” he said, adding that the residential and serviced apartment overhang status continued to be positive.
“The number of overhang units has decreased to 26,872 units worth RM18.31bil in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of market absorption in all states, except Selangor. The volume and value of residential overhang decreased by 3.2% and 0.5% respectively compared with the fourth quarter of 2022,” he said.
Selangor recorded the highest number and value of overhang units, with 4,995 units worth RM4.47bil, followed by Johor at 4,759 units worth RM3.94bil, Kuala Lumpur with 3,423 units worth RM3.13bil, and Penang with 3,138 units worth RM2.48bil.
The purpose-built office (private) and shopping complex segment in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, said Abdul Razak, should be given attention as there was a surplus of space, which was also expected to be severely affected by the inflow of new supply this year.This is as Kuala Lumpur recorded the highest available private purpose-built office space at 2.53 million square metres involving 290 buildings, followed by Selangor with 1.40 million square metres involving 192 buildings.
For the shopping complex segment, Selangor recorded the highest available retail space nationwide at 0.79 million square metres with 146 buildings followed by Kuala Lumpur at 0.56 million square metres with 97 buildings.
“Developers need to be more thorough and cautious before planning any new development and local authorities need to evaluate in detail before approving each new project,” said Abdul Razak.
Average NIMs of some local banks are expected to broaden slightly this year from the 2.28% registered in 2021.
Higher loan defaults, among individual borrowers and corporates, are expected to emerge as interest rate hikes to reduce inflationary pressures grip the economy.
Although the higher rates are good news for banks in terms of profitability, they may also result in loan defaults in the near term.
UCSI University assistant professor in finance Liew Chee Yoong, who is also a fellow at the Centre for Market Education, said the gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio would be higher due to the latest interest rate hike.
UCSI University assistant professor in finance Liew Chee Yoong
“The rise in interest rates will raise the interest expense of loan borrowers and increase their financial risk.
“Therefore, I will not be surprised if more individual and corporate borrowers will be in financial distress due to higher interest servicing this year.
“More loans will be impaired due to the higher likelihood of credit default by borrowers,” he added.
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The GIL ratio is defined as gross impaired loans as a percentage of gross loans, advances and financing.
Bank Negara has raised its overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% on July 6 amid positive economic growth prospects. It was the second consecutive increase after the 25 bps hike in May, which was also the first time the OPR was raised since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The OPR, which is a benchmark rate that allows banks to determine their lending and deposit rates, had been reduced by a cumulative 125 bps during the pandemic to a historic low of 1.75%.
RAM Rating Services Bhd co-head of financial institution ratings Wong Yin Ching said higher interest rates could impinge on some highly leveraged borrowers, although most borrowers would likely be able to absorb the slightly higher loan instalments.
RAM co-head of Financial Institution Ratings Wong Yin Ching, https://apicms.thestar.com.my/uploads/images/2022/07/11/1654838.jpg
“We may see the banking sector’s GIL ratio rise to 2.5% by end-2022, which is still deemed manageable in our view.
“Provisioning expenses, however, are not anticipated to increase in tandem with impaired loans as banks had judiciously built up provisioning reserves since the start of the pandemic.
“With most of the loan relief measures being progressively wound down in the first half of the year, defaults have begun to trend up,” she added.
The banking industry’s GIL ratio rose from 1.5% as of end-December 2021 to 1.64% as of end-May.
CGS-CIMB Securities analyst Winson Ng also expected higher GIL ratios this year.
“We expect the gross impaired loan ratio to increase 1.8% to 2% at end-December due to the credit risks from the Covid-19 and negative impact from higher inflation and interest-rate hikes.
“Headwinds, including higher inflation, could also be negative for asset quality and loan growth,” he said.
AmResearch banking analyst Kelvin Ong saw a gradual uptick in GIL ratio as the broad repayment assistance (including the Pemulih moratorium) had expired at end-June.
Asset quality ratio for the sector is expected to be higher at around 2% compared with 1.4% as of end December 2021, amid the transition towards targeted repayment assistance, according to him.
Commenting on the downside risk for the sector this year, Ong said: “Any prolonged or worsening supply chain disruptions will impact the pace of economic recovery and consequently affect our estimates for earnings growth of banks.
“Higher inflation pressures will impact consumer spending as well as profit margins of business loan borrowers which will lead to a potential deterioration in asset quality.”
Although most analysts expected the higher net interest margins (NIMs) to boost banks’ earnings from the latest OPR hike, UCSI’s Liew disagreed.
“I don’t think the higher OPR will improve the NIMs of banks. My prediction is that it will be reduced due to lowering demand for bank loans, which reduces the banks’ interest income and average earning asset value (that is, the amount of bank loans that are given out to borrowers).
“The increase in interest rates by the central bank will reduce the demand for bank loans from companies and individuals as the cost of financing becomes more expensive,” he said.
On the other hand, Liew said lenders would need to continue paying interest to risk-averse depositors who put their monies in banks during an economic uncertainty and this would reduce the NIMs.
According to RAM’s Wong, rising interest rates are a boon to NIMs as a majority of the domestic banking industry’s loans are floating-rate facilities, which would reprice faster than deposits.
That said, Wong added that the uplift in NIMs would be moderated by the increasingly deposit competition, as well as slower current and savings account expansion as some depositors go for term deposits.
Overall, Wong said the average NIMs of some local banks are expected to broaden slightly this year from the 2.28% registered in 2021.
NIM is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by banks and the amount of interest paid out to deposits.
CGS-CIMB’s Ng, who forecast loan growth of 4% to 5% for this year, is projecting a 4% net profit growth, mainly driven by the OPR hike and lower loan loss provisioning.
Ong is maintaining a loan growth projection of 5% to 6% this year, premised on an expected gross domestic product expansion of 5.6% this year.
With the additional taxes due to Cukai Makmur or prosperity tax, the earnings growth for banks are expected to be flat at 1.5% this year, according to Ong.
THE Association of Banks in Malaysia (ABM) would like to remind members of the public to remain vigilant at all times to safeguard personal information. This includes avoiding downloading files or applications from unverified sources onto mobile devices.
ABM would like to draw the public’s attention to the safety measures recommended by the Malaysia Computer Security Response Team’s (MyCERT) security advisory, published recently.
Here are some of the safeguards recommended by MyCERT:
> Do not install any app or Android package kit (.apk) file from unknown sources. This is because it may be malware designed to steal your personal details and your online banking credentials.
> Do not click on adware or suspicious URLs sent through messaging services.
> Do not root or jailbreak your device.
> Verify an application’s permission settings and the application’s author or publisher before installing it.
> Only download apps from official sources.
> Do install antivirus software on your devices and run it regularly.
> Update your device’s operating system and apps regularly.
With cybercriminals and online fraudsters constantly changing their methods, ABM would also like to urge the public to remember the following:
> Never divulge your personal details and/or banking credentials to unknown or unverified parties.
> Never disclose your transaction authorisation code (TAC) or personal identification number (PIN) or your online login username and password to anyone.
> Never click on any links to banks’ websites that are sent from unknown, suspicious or unverified emails. Always key in your bank’s website address directly into the URL bar in your Internet browser or use your bank’s official mobile app.
> Avoid websites offering products at prices that are too good to be true and are littered with spelling mistakes – these tend to be fraudulent sites.
> Avoid using public or open WiFi networks for online banking.
> Always ensure that the banking website or banking app that you are using is genuine and official.
> Always refer to your bank’s official website or contact your bank’s hotlines (stated on the back of your credit card or on the banks’ websites) directly for information, verification and clarification when in doubt.
Bank account holders are also advised to monitor your statements as well as transaction alerts from the banks closely.
If you notice any unusual or suspicious transactions, contact your bank as soon as possible to report it. Next, lodge a report with the police. Thereafter, notify the bank in writing with a copy of the police report and all relevant records and documentation, such as transaction history, etc. Due investigation processes are in place to determine if the reported transaction is indeed unauthorised.
ABM would like to reiterate that member banks are required to adopt high standards of security, including for Internet and mobile banking services. Routine security reviews and advisories are also issued by Bank Negara Malaysia to financial institutions to ensure adequate protection against the latest threats.
The public are advised to keep informed of emerging threats through the advisories issued by financial institutions, Bank Negara Malaysia and other authorities to protect themselves. Information on the latest threats and measures that you can take to protect yourself against cybercriminals and online fraudsters can be obtained from abm.org.my/consumer-information/fraud-alerts.
China: Rise of an Asian giant | Insight | Full Episode
China’s space station: From no flush toilets to building its own space station within 40 years.
AS an Egyptian, I have been studying China intensely for the past year — its government, society, history, and transformation. `
I’ve spoken to hundreds of Chinese and China-haters and heard everything they had to say. By now I’ve learned roughly as much about China as anyone can learn without knowing the language or living in the country, and I’ve reached my conclusion. China attracts a lot of haters, know-nothings and armchair experts. `
The truth is that China is the greatest country on the face of the earth. It makes all other countries look insignificant and contemptible. It is the most brilliant, most industrious, most ambitious, most educated, meritocratic and technocratic, most modern, sophisticated, and civilised, and best-governed by far. `
It is the first nonwhite, non-Western country to reach this status since the 1600s. The determination of this country is indescribable. Supernatural. There is no force that can stop it from accomplishing anything it wants to do. `
Forty years ago a flush toilet in China was a luxury. Today it has its own Space Station. This is a tiny example of China’s capabilities. `
It doesn’t matter who we are. Egyptians, Syrians, Pakistanis, Indians, Africans, even Americans. Next to the Chinese, we are pathetic. We can’t do what they do. We would have a mountain, an Everest of changes to make, and we would whine and bicker and fail at every one of them. China’s story since the 1980s has been one of an almost divine metamorphosis.
`
Next to China the entire Western world from Alaska to New Zealand has stagnated. Next to China the entire developing world from Brazil to Madagascar has progressed only at a crawl. `
China is the mother of all gargantuan bullet trains. Every day it manages to create something new and astonishing. And unlike the United States, unlike the British Empire, unlike the French, Dutch, Germans, Spanish, Portuguese or any other Western nation that had its turn at being a superpower in the past four centuries, China doesn’t need to run anybody over or take something from somebody else, to rise majestically. `
China is also standing up to the West all by herself. The West can’t believe their four-hundred-year-old global supremacy is being challenged. They hoped that the more China developed, the more it would submit to their influence, interests, and leadership. That didn’t happen. So now they will do anything possible, short of a nuclear war, to make China end. `
Their goal is to destroy this country. That’s why, although the United States has killed several million people and turned several regions of the earth into hellscapes.
`
China is the worst fear of our planet’s Western masters. They want you to despise and dread a country that’s done nothing to you, that hasn’t invaded anyone, bombed or sanctioned anyone, that hasn’t overthrown any foreign government, or used its military on anything since 1979. `
China is the only major country in the nonwhite developing world, to stand up to the West. To look it in the eye when challenged or threatened. `
The Global South are simply Western puppets who submitted long ago. Even the most powerful ones. Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India. `
The 1500s—1000s BC were Egypt’s time. Antiquity belonged to the Greeks and Romans. The 1700s belonged to France, and the 1800s to Britain. From 1945 to the present, the world has been under American overlordship. And they call it the Pax Americana but there isn’t much Pax in it. `
There’s plenty of Pax if you’re in Europe or Australia. But the Middle East? Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran and Yemen in the past 20 years. Latin America? They’ve destroyed that part of the world beyond any hope of recovery. Africa? It’s only been spared because of disinterest. The US sees Africa as nothing. The whole West does. `
But in the twenty-first century, we are witnessing the rise of China. We are decades away from China becoming the greatest power on earth. This will be China’s time, and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Attack China all you want, curse her and monger rumours and hysteria — but the truth is that none of your accusations are backed up by evidence. The Western press is under the thumb of Western governments that want to stay on top of the world for eternity. And the truth is that China is not affected by the noise and maneuvers of her enemies.
`
For her first thirty years, from 1949 to 1979, China was basically blockaded and isolated economically and politically by the West. It didn’t even have a seat in the UN General Assembly. And it was dirt-poor in those days, barely a speck of the global economy, a tiny fraction of Japan’s or Germany’s GDP — not even able to prevent famine. And it still didn’t submit to pressure or take any orders. Why on earth would it do that now? ` China will be the next global power. There’s nothing that can be done about that. The first stage is that its economy only needs to grow at 4.7 percent per year to become the world’s largest by 2035. That means the usual, historical bare-minimum of 6 percent is already overkill. The US can build as many bases as it wants, slap as many sanctions as it wants, recognise whatever bogus genocides it wants. That’s what it’s been doing all along. Has any of it made a difference? China can adapt to any situation. It took China a mere ten years to go from being barred by the US Congress from participating in the “International” Space Station, to building its own Space Station from zero. `
See, the US has an $800-billion war budget, 800 military bases, 13,000 aircraft, 500 warships, 6,000 nukes — but it doesn’t have what China has: invincible national resolve. It takes the US about 5 years to renovate a bridge, and it takes China 43 hours. There’s simply no competing with that. `
China doesn’t need to be a military superpower or empire. That was never part of the plan. US troops, God bless their souls, will continue sitting in their bases, scratching their balls, costing their government $800 billion a year to do nothing. Meanwhile, China will continue to actually develop. `
That’s the part of the equation that America totally missed, because it has barely developed since Reagan’s day. China is a better place to live today than at any time in its previous 5,000 years; Americans saw their highest standard of living in the 1960s and those days will never come back. `
So yes, China will be the next global power, and the Chinese are vastly superior to us in every way. This is a fact that everyone can attack but that nobody can change, like the theory of evolution. `
Look at you silly buggers, talking about China like it’s going to be the next Nazi Germany. Even many Middle Easterners I know fit in this foolish category. Did you notice when the US invaded or overthrew the governments of 20 countries in the past 32 years (my lifetime)? Did you even know? You think just because you’re ready to forget all that because of Beyoncé and Game of Thrones and Snapchat and other US cultural exports, it didn’t happen. `
The US is feeding me terror-bytes about Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen Square, Great Leap Forward! I don’t see any dead bodies, I can’t show you one invasion or one example of Chinese regime change, I can’t even find Hong Kong on a map or tell you one factual detail about Tiananmen Square, but the US State Department and all its media are telling me CHINA BAD! `
Aren’t you at least curious to see what a world with a nonwhite, non-Western leader might look like, after 400 years? Because God knows that leader won’t be us. It won’t be Brazil or Africa, or the Middle East or India or Indonesia or Nigeria or Pakistan. We’re a mess. `
China was a mess too. But we remain a mess many decades after we achieved independence, and the Chinese went their own way, disentangled their mess and created their destiny. We’re not made of what the Chinese are made of. `
I see China as hope. Hope that a colonised, brutalised, primitive and humiliated country, can rise above its past — refuse to be weak any longer — rebuild itself from nothing, with iron resolve, and become too strong to be overrun by the West again! `
Hope that a nonwhite, non-Western country can look deep within itself and find its own solutions to its problems — proving that (foolishly) trusting the West to guide us isn’t necessary! Proof that if we can do what the Chinese did, there will be no limits for us. `
Imagine a world where the US, France, Britain, Australia, are no more important than Uzbekistan or Paraguay. `
A world where the World Court might be headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, the World Bank in New Delhi, the United Nations in Jakarta, the IMF in Cairo. `
A world liberated from the US banking system and the dollar as its reserve currency, so that Washington can no longer tell 200 other countries who they can and can’t trade with. `
A world where an American can be tried for war crimes at the Hague, not just an Iraqi or Liberian or Serb. `
A world where we don’t hear about a non-Western-made vaccine and grunt to ourselves, Oh, it must be poison. A world where we don’t have to immigrate to the same countries that turned ours into hellholes, to work as sales clerks or taxi drivers, or even if we’re brilliantly employed — to drain our brains from our homelands in the best of cases, and use them to reinforce Western riches and supremacy in exchange for a fat paycheck, instead of using them to make our own countries semi-habitable. ` When I hear that China has built its own Space Station, landed a rover on Mars, ended extreme poverty, built the Earth’s biggest city, dam, telescope, 5G network, highway, air purifier, or whatever the heck it is that will come tomorrow — I feel the same pride as if I were Chinese. `
It’s not happening for all of us, but it’s happening for one of us and that’s a start. There’s got to be such a thing as developing-country nationalism — a common nationalism for all the countries that were colonised and plundered, and remain economically and politically captured by their ex-rulers. `
A nationalism for the Global South. We are too divided, too brainwashed, too fooled and weak — most of us still worship the countries that destroyed us, are non-Western on the outside and Western on the inside, are hating and fearing and buying all the lies about the only one of us that’s made it, and are leaving our countries in droves to let them burn while we “make a better life for ourselves” in the West. `
Do you want to live on a Western-dominated Earth for another 400 years? If you do, keep doing what you’re doing. But I don’t! `
You know what’ll happen for all of us if America’s sick wishes come true and its global thuggery does make China collapse? Nothing. Eternal repetition of the status quo. More enslavement, hijacking of our resources and weak corrupt governments, neo-colonialism, invasion, regime change, sanctions, MISERY. `
Haven’t we already seen this? Libya, Cuba, Venezuela, Yugoslavia, Belarus, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, the Soviet Union. Rest in peace. Even FRANCE and JAPAN for God’s sake. What does the United States do when any other country says NO, or simply becomes too powerful, too good at honest competition? `
Japan was a Western-style democracy crawling with US troops, with a US-authored pacifist constitution and almost no military and an extremely pro-US government and populace, and it STILL got crushed when it looked like it would become the #1 economy in the 80s. `
I remember 10–15 years ago when China was still relatively poor and impotent, and Bush and Obama would talk about China as sweetly as swans. Obama happily had dinner with Xi Jinping in late 2015, called China a crucial partner of the United States, and said the US welcomed China’s rise; it was all horseshit. Today Biden, who was there with Obama in late 2015 as Vice-President, angrily rebukes a reporter who merely said that Biden and Xi were old friends. `
America has taken off its mask. `
China made it, it wasn’t supposed to make it, so now it must die. What a difference 5 years can make. China went from “crucial partner” to “number one threat.”
`
We should be helping and supporting China to keep climbing to the top, and giving her some serious solidarity as she withstands the new Cold War of Western imperialism. It’s been a long 400 years. China is the first non-Western country to even come close to reaching a status of ultimate global importance. She is akin to the the first member of an impoverished family to go to university. That is our family of nations. ` And when China gets to the top, believe me, it won’t be a repeat of the French, British, or American Empire. Not a single developing country on earth will be worse-off because of China becoming #1. There will be something good in this for all of us, so let’s wake up. `
- Ismail Bashmori is an Egyptian China watcher
Session 1 : #SOS: How Budget 2022 Can Drive Your Business Forward
The session will address: – SME portfolio financial restructuring – How the Government’s 2022 budget can help you rebuild or drive your business forward – Government’s focus in strengthening public healthcare, rebuilding socio-economic and economic resilience
Speakers: 1) Datuk Dr. AT Kumararajah , Secretary General, MAICCI 2) Jenny Hoh, Vice President of SME Advisory and Marketing, CGC 3) Yip How Nang, Head of SME Banking, RHB Bank Berhad
Session 2 : #SOS: How Budget 2022 Can Drive Your Business Forward
This session will address: – Strategies for effective budget planning 2022 – Reopening of all sectors – What’s next? Is this the right time to invest or expand your businesses? – Government’s focus on enhancing digital infrastructure. How can SMEs benefit?
Speakers: 1) Shirley Tay, President, MRCA 2) Pang Kong Chek, Chief FInancial Officer, PKT Logistics Group Sdn Bhd 3) Kevin Lee, Head of SME, Maxis Business
